Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Dodge City, KS

000 
WWUS53 KDDC 202201
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

KSC055-171-202230-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0257.000000T0000Z-070820T2230Z/
SCOTT KS-FINNEY KS-
500 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN FINNEY AND SCOTT COUNTIES...

AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL THE
SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHALLOW WATER...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SCOTT CITY...
  SHALLOW WATER...
  FRIEND...
  RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHWESTERN FINNEY AND SCOTT COUNTIES.

AT 448 PM, QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH WAS REPORTED 
IN SCOTT CITY.

THIS STORM IS CONSIDERED A SUPERCELL STORM...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFCANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. SUPERCELL
STORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES...HOWEVER THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THIS STORM IS DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3865 10078 3862 10100 3814 10110 3817 10064

$$

LACY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE 12Z RAOBS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A MID LEVEL HOT PLUME
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. ANOTHER
JET STREAK WITH 75KT 200MB WINDS WAS SAGGING SOUTH INTO KANSAS.
THE SOUNDING FROM DDC SHOWED AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM
700-550MB, WITH INCREASING RH WITH HEIGHT UP TO THE SATURATED
ACCAS LAYER. ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPED AROUND NOON TODAY IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THESE HAVE BECOME SFC BASED AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WITH 55-70KT FLOW AT 200MB AND
3000-4000J/JG CAPE, SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AS LARGE
AS HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING SINCE THE 0-6 KM WINDS ARE FAIRLY WEAK. SO 200MB STORM
RELATIVE FLOW WILL BE 50-60KTS. THIS WILL HELP THE STORMS
REACH SEVERE LEVELS SINCE PRECIPITATION EVACUATION WILL
HELP IN THE SEPARATION OF THE UPDRAFTS FROM THE PRECIP CORES,
LEADING TO LONGER LIVED STORMS. WITH FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR FROM 0-3
KM AND HIGH CLOUD BASES, TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN OR
CENTRAL KS BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES EACH DAY WITH
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE FURTHER NORTH, WITH THE STORMS
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. BUT OUTFLOW FROM INITIAL STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MAY HELP FIRE STORMS FURTHER SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT,
CAPES WILL BE LOWER BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER CLOUD BASES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST PLACES SO
A HEAT ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED. BUT WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT, AND WITH A T/TD OF 99F/69F AT DODGE
CITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE VERY UNCOMFORTABLE WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FROM 104F TO 108F. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
WILL BE IN OUR NE COUNTIES(105F TO 110F) TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DAYS 3-7...

BASED ON THE LATEST UPDATES ON THE GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION PLOT,
ANGULAR MOMENTUM IS ON THE ORDER OF THREE SIGMA BELOW MEAN VALUES.
THERE IS AT LEAST A TREND TOWARD HIGHER MOMENTUM VALUES BASED ON THE
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION PLOT BUT OVERALL AAM SHOULD STAY ON THE LOW
SIDE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA.  MOST OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS FORECAST A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN WITH
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
WITH A TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WEST.

THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST EJECTING OUT INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
WASHING OUT ON SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGHING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.
FOR THURSDAY, WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA. WILL SHIFT THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH.  HAVE ALSO BUMPED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IF THE MODELS LOCK ON TO THIS FORECAST
I MAY BE BUMPING POPS UP INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS. WE SHOULD HAVE A BREAK FROM PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES RETURNING TO THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD
DAY 7.  IN THE 8 TO 10 DAY PERIOD, WILL GO WITH NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.  THE MEAN TROUGHINESS IN THE WESTERN
CONUS SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASED OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TSRA COULD AFFECT AIRPORT OPERATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AT HAYS AND GARDEN CITY AND POSSIBLY EARLY THIS EVENING AT DODGE
CITY. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY 03Z.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
AROUND DODGE CITY AND HAYS.  THIS COULD RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS TOWARD
12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71 100  72  98 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  69 101  69  98 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  67 100  68  96 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  70 100  70  97 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  71  99  72  98 /  40  40  40  40
P28  74  98  73  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN24/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
149 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-211900-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
149 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007 /1249 PM MDT MON AUG 20 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE IN SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS... THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM LARNED TO GARDEN CITY TO SYRACUSE.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 104 AND 108 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM CDT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

FINCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

KSZ045-202045-
NESS-
307 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NESS COUNTY...

AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UTICA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS IN NORTHERN NESS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF UTICA AND
ARNOLD...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3869 10024 3848 10024 3836 9970 3869 9972

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
412 PM CDT MON AUG 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             2 SSE UTICA             38.62N 100.16W
08/20/2007  E1.00 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

0408 PM     HAIL             13 N SCOTT CITY         38.67N 100.91W
08/20/2007  E1.50 INCH       SCOTT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

GERARD