Alert archive / Kansas / River Flood Warnings in 2007

River Flood Warning 8, NWS Dodge City, KS

July 12, 2007Hodgeman County, Pawnee County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this river flood warning at Jul 12, 2007, 3:48 PM CDT for Hodgeman County, Pawnee County, Kansas. It was in force for 52 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 12, 2007, 3:48 PM CDT (20:48 UTC)
Expired
Jul 14, 2007, 8:07 PM CDT
In force
52 hr
Issued by
NWS Dodge City, KS
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Hodgeman County, KS, Pawnee County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Buckner Creek near Burdett (BETK1).

Action stage
15 ft
Minor stage
16 ft
Moderate stage
21 ft
Major stage
25 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07141175, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS43 KDDC 122048
FLWDDC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 
348 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY, KS HAS ISSUED A FLOOD 
WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...

  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES.

.RUNOFF FROM VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAS CAUSED THE BUCKNER CREEK TO RISE RAPIDLY TODAY. THE BUCKNER 
IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THERE UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING.

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVERBANKS... 

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATER ON THIS EVENING.


KSC083-145-130848-
/X.NEW.KDDC.FL.W.0008.070712T2048Z-070713T1552Z/
/BETK1.1.ER.070712T2016Z.070713T0000Z.070713T0952Z.NO/
348 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY, KS HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  2:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.6 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.8 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...PREPARE FOR FIRST TERRACE OVERFLOWS OF 2 TO 
  3 FEET ALONG THE BANKS OF THE BUCKNER CREEK.  MOVE LIVESTOCK AWAY 
  FROM THE MAIN CHANNEL.   THE CREEKSIDE CEMETARY ROAD ALONG BUCKNER 
  CREEK NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME FLOODED AT A STAGE OF 19.0 FEET.  
  THE CITIES OF JETMORE AND HANSTON ARE NOT IN ANY IMMEDIATE DANGER 
  FROM THIS FORECASTED RISE ALONG BUCKNER CREEK.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.0 FEET
  ON OCT 27 1997.

$$
13 follow-up statements
000 
WGUS43 KDDC 122159
FLWDDC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TEST...FLOOD WARNING ...TEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 
459 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...

  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES.

.RUNOFF FROM VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAS CAUSED THE BUCKNER CREEK TO RISE RAPIDLY TODAY. THE BUCKNER 
CREEK HAD CONTINUED TO RISE AT A FAIRLY RAPID RATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON PROMPTING
AN UPDATED CREST HEIGHT REACHING THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF MODERATE FLOODING.

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVERBANKS... 

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.


KSC083-145-130959-
/X.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070713T1448Z/
/BETK1.2.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T0000Z.070713T0848Z.NO/
459 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007


...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  4:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 21.1 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 21.7 FEET...EXPECT MODERATE FLOODING TO DEPTHS OF 5 FEET
  OR MORE ALONG THE LOWER TERRACES OF BUCKNER CREEK...MOVE LIVESTOCK
  AWAY FROM THE MAIN CHANNEL. THE CREEKSIDE CEMETARY ROAD ALONG 
  BUCKNER CREEK NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME INUNDATED BY 2 OR MORE FEET
  OF WATER.  THE NORTH-SOUTH COUNTY ROAD WHICH CROSSES BUCKNER CREEK 
  NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME FLOODED AS THE RIVER STAGE PASSES 21.7 
  FEET.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.2 FEET
  ON AUG 22 2006.


$$
000 
WGUS43 KDDC 122202 CCA
FLWDDC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 
459 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...

  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES.

.RUNOFF FROM VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL 
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAS CAUSED THE BUCKNER CREEK TO RISE RAPIDLY TODAY. THE BUCKNER 
CREEK HAD CONTINUED TO RISE AT A FAIRLY RAPID RATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON PROMPTING
AN UPDATED CREST HEIGHT REACHING THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF MODERATE FLOODING.

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVERBANKS... 

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.


KSC083-145-130959-
/X.COR.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070713T1448Z/
/BETK1.2.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T0000Z.070713T0848Z.NO/
459 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  4:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.5 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 21.1 FEET BY THIS
  EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 21.7 FEET...EXPECT MODERATE FLOODING TO DEPTHS OF 5 FEET
  OR MORE ALONG THE LOWER TERRACES OF BUCKNER CREEK...MOVE LIVESTOCK
  AWAY FROM THE MAIN CHANNEL. THE CREEKSIDE CEMETARY ROAD ALONG 
  BUCKNER CREEK NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME INUNDATED BY 2 OR MORE FEET
  OF WATER.  THE NORTH-SOUTH COUNTY ROAD WHICH CROSSES BUCKNER CREEK 
  NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME FLOODED AS THE RIVER STAGE PASSES 21.7 
  FEET.
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.2 FEET
  ON AUG 22 2006.


$$
000 
WGUS83 KDDC 130050
FLSDDC
KSC083-145-131250-
  
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
750 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...
 
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES.
 
.RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAS CAUSED THE BUCKNER CREEK TO RISE OVER
ITS BANKS. THE CREEK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE UNTIL 
AROUND MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT. 

 SAFETY MESSAGE...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ***TIME OF NEXT ISSUANCE***


KSC083-145-131250-
/X.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070714T1146Z/
/BETK1.2.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T0600Z.070714T0546Z.NR/
750 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 23.1 FEET BY 
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 21.7 FEET...EXPECT MODERATE FLOODING TO DEPTHS OF 5 FEET
  OR MORE ALONG THE LOWER TERRACES OF BUCKNER CREEK...MOVE LIVESTOCK
  AWAY FROM THE MAIN CHANNEL. THE CREEKSIDE CEMETARY ROAD ALONG 
  BUCKNER CREEK NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME INUNDATED BY 2 OR MORE FEET
  OF WATER.  THE NORTH-SOUTH COUNTY ROAD WHICH CROSSES BUCKNER CREEK 
  NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME FLOODED AS THE RIVER STAGE PASSES 21.7 
  FEET.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 24.1 FEET ON SEP 20 
1996.  

$$
000 
WGUS83 KDDC 130213
FLSDDC
KSC083-145-131413-
  
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
913 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...
 
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES.
 
. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL LAST NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS HAS CAUSED THE BUCKNER CREEK TO
RISE OVER ITS BANKS. THE CREEK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT. 

 SAFETY MESSAGE...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.


KSC083-145-131413-
/X.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070714T1342Z/
/BETK1.2.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T0600Z.070714T0742Z.NR/
913 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:30 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.6 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 24.4 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 24.4 FEET ON NOV 17 
1996.  

$$
000 
WGUS43 KDDC 130704
FLWDDC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 
204 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...OBSERVED FLOODING CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO RECORD SEVERITY FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...
...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO RECORD SEVERITY FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES.

. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL LAST NIGHT AND TONIGHT 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS HAS CAUSED THE BUCKNER CREEK TO
RISE OVER ITS BANKS. THE CREEK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVERBANKS... 

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

KSC083-145-131904-
/X.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070714T1618Z/
/BETK1.3.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T1200Z.070714T1018Z.NR/
204 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...OBSERVED FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO RECORD SEVERITY...
...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MODERATE TO RECORD SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  1:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.8 FEET. 
* RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 24.4 FEET
  ON NOV 17 1996.

$$
000 
WGUS83 KDDC 130912
FLSDDC
KSC083-145-132112-
  
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
412 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...OBSERVED AND FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MODERATE TO RECORD 
SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES. 

. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THAT FELL LAST NIGHT AND TONIGHT 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS HAS CAUSED THE BUCKNER CREEK TO
RISE OVER ITS BANKS. THE CREEK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

 SAFETY MESSAGE...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FRIDAY MORNING.

KSC083-145-132112-
/X.CON.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070714T1618Z/
/BETK1.3.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T1200Z.070714T1018Z.NR/
412 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  3:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.8 FEET. 
* RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 24.4 FEET ON NOV 17 
1996.  

$$

06
000 
WGUS83 KDDC 131318
FLSDDC
KSC083-145-140118-
  
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
818 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...
 
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES.
 
.HEAVY RAINS FROM THE PREVIOUS 2 NIGHTS HAVE CAUSED THE BUCKNER CREEK
TO FLOW OVER ITS BANKS. THE CREEK IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE
BY EARLY SATURDAY.

 SAFETY MESSAGE...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.


KSC083-145-140118-
/X.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070714T1536Z/
/BETK1.3.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T0745Z.070714T0936Z.NR/
818 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  7:30 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.2 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  EARLY TOMORROW.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 24.1 FEET ON SEP 20 
1996.  

$$
000 
WGUS83 KDDC 131849
FLSDDC
KSC083-145-140649-
  
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
149 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...
 
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES.
 
.THE BUCKNER CREEK HAS BEGUN TO RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE CREEK WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. 


 SAFETY MESSAGE...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ***TIME OF NEXT ISSUANCE***


KSC083-145-140649-
/X.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070714T1845Z/
/BETK1.3.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T0745Z.070714T1245Z.NR/
149 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 12:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 23.1 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 21.7 FEET...EXPECT MODERATE FLOODING TO DEPTHS OF 5 FEET
  OR MORE ALONG THE LOWER TERRACES OF BUCKNER CREEK...MOVE LIVESTOCK
  AWAY FROM THE MAIN CHANNEL. THE CREEKSIDE CEMETARY ROAD ALONG 
  BUCKNER CREEK NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME INUNDATED BY 2 OR MORE FEET
  OF WATER.  THE NORTH-SOUTH COUNTY ROAD WHICH CROSSES BUCKNER CREEK 
  NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME FLOODED AS THE RIVER STAGE PASSES 21.7 
  FEET.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 24.1 FEET ON SEP 20 
1996.  

$$
000 
WGUS83 KDDC 140205
FLSDDC
KSC083-145-141405-
  
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
905 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...
 
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES.
 
. THE BUCKNER CREEK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECEDE...HOWEVER, THE CREEK
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

 SAFETY MESSAGE...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.


KSC083-145-141405-
/X.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070714T2136Z/
/BETK1.3.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T0745Z.070714T1536Z.NR/
905 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD 
WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:30 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.4 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 21.7 FEET...EXPECT MODERATE FLOODING TO DEPTHS OF 5
  FEET OR MORE ALONG THE LOWER TERRACES OF BUCKNER CREEK...MOVE
  LIVESTOCK AWAY FROM THE MAIN CHANNEL. THE CREEKSIDE CEMETARY ROAD
  ALONG BUCKNER CREEK NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME INUNDATED BY 2 OR
  MORE FEET OF WATER.  THE NORTH-SOUTH COUNTY ROAD WHICH CROSSES
  BUCKNER CREEK NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME FLOODED AS THE RIVER STAGE
  PASSES 21.7 FEET.

$$
000 
WGUS83 KDDC 140717
FLSDDC
KSC083-145-141917-
  
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
217 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS..
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES. 
 
(OPTIONAL) GENERAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SYNOPSIS

. THE BUCKNER CREEK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RECEDE...HOWEVER, THE CREEK
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

 SAFETY MESSAGE...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SATURDAY MORNING.


KSC083-145-141917-
/X.CON.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070714T2136Z/
/BETK1.3.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T0745Z.070714T1536Z.NR/
217 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  1:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.4 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 21.7 FEET...EXPECT MODERATE FLOODING TO DEPTHS OF 5 FEET
  OR MORE ALONG THE LOWER TERRACES OF BUCKNER CREEK...MOVE LIVESTOCK
  AWAY FROM THE MAIN CHANNEL. THE CREEKSIDE CEMETARY ROAD ALONG 
  BUCKNER CREEK NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME INUNDATED BY 2 OR MORE FEET
  OF WATER.  THE NORTH-SOUTH COUNTY ROAD WHICH CROSSES BUCKNER CREEK 
  NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME FLOODED AS THE RIVER STAGE PASSES 21.7 
  FEET.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.2 FEET ON AUG 22 
2006.  

$$
000 
WGUS83 KDDC 141521
FLSDDC
KSC083-145-150321-
  
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1021 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...
 
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES.
 
GENERAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SYNOPSIS

. BUCKNER CREEK NEAR  BURDETT WAS STILL SWOLLEN FROM RECENT RAINS...AND
WILL SLOWLY RECEDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE CREEK SHOULD FALL 
BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND 1 AM ON SUNDAY.

 SAFETY MESSAGE...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SATURDAY EVENING. 

KSC083-145-150321-
/X.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070715T1236Z/
/BETK1.3.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T0745Z.070715T0636Z.NR/
1021 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  9:30 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...PREPARE FOR FIRST TERRACE OVERFLOWS OF 2 TO 
  3 FEET ALONG THE BANKS OF THE BUCKNER CREEK.  MOVE LIVESTOCK AWAY 
  FROM THE MAIN CHANNEL.   THE CREEKSIDE CEMETARY ROAD ALONG BUCKNER 
  CREEK NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME FLOODED AT A STAGE OF 19.0 FEET.  
  THE CITIES OF JETMORE AND HANSTON ARE NOT IN ANY IMMEDIATE DANGER 
  FROM THIS FORECASTED RISE ALONG BUCKNER CREEK.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.0 FEET ON OCT 27 
1997.  

$$
000 
WGUS83 KDDC 141835
FLSDDC
KSC083-145-150635-
  
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
135 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KANSAS...
 
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES.
 
GENERAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SYNOPSIS

. THE STAGE ON BUCKNER CREEK WEST OF BURDETT WAS AT 18.24 FEET AT 
12:30 TODAY (SATURDAY) AND WILL SLOWLY FALL AND BE BELOW THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 16 FEET AROUND 1 AM SUNDAY.

 SAFETY MESSAGE...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.


KSC083-145-150635-
/X.EXT.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070715T1232Z/
/BETK1.3.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T0745Z.070715T0632Z.NR/
135 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING ...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 12:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 19.0 FEET...PREPARE FOR FIRST TERRACE OVERFLOWS OF 2 TO 
  3 FEET ALONG THE BANKS OF THE BUCKNER CREEK.  MOVE LIVESTOCK AWAY 
  FROM THE MAIN CHANNEL.   THE CREEKSIDE CEMETERY ROAD ALONG BUCKNER 
  CREEK NORTH OF GRAY WILL BECOME FLOODED AT A STAGE OF 19.0 FEET.  
  THE CITIES OF JETMORE AND HANSTON ARE NOT IN ANY IMMEDIATE DANGER 
  FROM THIS FORECASTED RISE ALONG BUCKNER CREEK.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 19.0 FEET ON OCT 27 
1997.  

$$
000 
WGUS83 KDDC 150107
FLSDDC
KSC083-145-151307-
  
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
807 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
KANSAS...
 
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W AFFECTING HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE 
  COUNTIES.
 
.THE STAGE ON BUCKNER CREEK WEST OF BURDETT WAS AT 12.86 FEET AT 
7:30 PM SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.


 SAFETY MESSAGE...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER OR GO AROUND BARRICADES.  NEARLY 
HALF OF ALL FLOOD FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED.  

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO OR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS 
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.    

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT: 
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC (LOWERCASE) FOR ADDITIONAL 
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION.


KSC083-145-150137-
/X.CAN.KDDC.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-070715T1232Z/
/BETK1.3.ER.070712T1940Z.070713T0745Z.070714T2123Z.NR/
807 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BUCKNER CREEK NEAR BURDETT 6W.
* AT  7:30 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  4:23 PM SATURDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 6.4 FEET BY MONDAY 
  MORNING.


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jul 12, 3:30 PM CDT, 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 3:30 PM CDT, 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES H3 JET HAS MANAGED TO PUSH SOUTH
FROM CANADA ACROSS EASTERN ND SOUTH INTO ERN KS. 90-95KT JET STREAK
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES WITH A SECOND 90KT JET STREAK MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN ND. SEVERAL S/WVS ARE PIVOTING AROUND UPPER LOW AT
H5. ANOTHER S/WV IS FOUND MOVING ACROSS OK THIS MORNING. AN ABUNDANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT H7 AND H85 CONTINUED TO BE PRESENT ACROSS
WESTERN KS. H7 TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE SURFACE, 15Z DATA INDICATED A STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN OK.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER MCS
WITH HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT.

MCS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY HAS LEFT SOME AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH HIGH WATER AND FLOODING. RAINFALL FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES HAS LEFT
BEHIND SATURATED GROUND. CURRENTLY HAVE A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN FA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. QUESTION
WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT CANCELLATION IS NEEDED. DO THINK HEAVY RAIN
WILL OCCUR IN CWA BUT AT PRESENT, IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES WILL BE
FURTHER WEST TONIGHT. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BRINGING YET ANOTHER MCS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH
H85-H3 STEERING FLOW PUSHING ANY COMPLEX TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS BY EVENING
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS MCS ARE FLOATING AROUND FA. IN ADDITION, SFC
TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW INTO SW KANSAS. SBCAPE ACROSS
WESTERN FA IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WITH LIS WELL BELOW 0C. SHOULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME COULD BE SEVERE. STORMS
WILL MERGE TO FORM AN MCS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN FA. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS
OF HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WEST OF CURRENT FLOOD WATCH, WILL GO
AHEAD AND REMOVE IT AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY GIVEN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. STREAMS ARE
STILL RESPONDING TO OVERNIGHT RAINFALL IN THIS REGION.

BY FRIDAY, MCS SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH INTO OK/TX LEAVING BEHIND
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. H85 TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

BY SATURDAY, COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FA TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBILITY. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THIS
FRONT THUS TIMING IS IMPORTANT TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISHING.

DAYS 3-7...

I BASICALLY STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY. A
SWITCH FROM THE COOLER AND WETTER GSDM STAGE 2 REGIME TO MORE OF A
WARMER AND DRIER GSDM STAGE 1 REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BE
ARRIVING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE CLIMATE TOOLS ON THE CDC WEBSITE
HAVE NOT BEEN UPDATED RECENTLY, HOWEVER USING SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
SSEC SHOWS THAT THE EASTWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SIGNAL THAT
STARTED AROUND THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE ACROSS THE PACIFIC HAS FOR THE
MOST PART VANISHED. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS NEARLY VOID OF CONVECTION
WITH A CONSOLIDATION OCCURRING BACK TO THE WEST BETWEEN 90E AND 120E
WHICH IS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF A GSDM STAGE 1 PATTERN.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN THE 2 REGIMES. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONE MORE WAVE WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH A FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH THE TAIL END LYING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS MY EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS
REASON, I THREW IN SOME 20 POPS.

I AM PLANNING ON KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS STATED BEFORE, THIS MAKES
SENSE AND WOULD BE THE RESPONSE I WOULD EXPECT IN A GSDM STAGE 1
PATTERN. UNCERTAINTY DOES INCREASE SOME TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY HOWEVER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHT FIELD TRAPPED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OKLAHOMA OR TEXAS.
THIS SYSTEM MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP BUT
UNCERTAINTY JUST REMAINS TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT TO THROW POPS IN.

THE WEEK 2 FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO WILL STICK WITH NEAR NORMAL
FOR TEMPS/PRECIP FOR NOW.

LACY

&&

.AVIATION...

WILL GO WITH THE SAME STRATEGY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS I DID
YESTERDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE TERMINALS AT
THIS POINT BUT COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE EASTWARD LATER ON THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS ORGANIZING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS POINT WILL
BE TO JUST GO WITH VCTS UNTIL A BETTER IDEA OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
EVENT IS ACHIEVED. A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY HIT THE TERMINALS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THIS OUT OF THE TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  84  62  90 /  60  10  10  10
GCK  64  84  62  91 /  60  10  10  10
EHA  64  83  60  91 /  70  10  10  10
LBL  64  84  62  91 /  80  20  10  20
HYS  64  85  64  90 /  40  10  10  20
P28  67  85  65  90 /  70  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN30/27/27
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 12, 3:30 PM CDT, 18 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

KSZ043-061>066-074>081-084>090-130945-
SCOTT-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-
GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-
MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
330 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007 /230 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY 500 PM CDT THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY
TO SYRACUSE. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AS
LARGE AS QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ030-031-044>046-130945-
TREGO-ELLIS-LANE-NESS-RUSH-
330 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 12, 10:07 AM CDT, 5 hours 41 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1007 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             3 SW JOHNSON CITY       37.54N 101.79W
07/12/2007  E0.75 INCH       STANTON            KS   PUBLIC

            JUST A FEW HAIL STONES

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E JETMORE             38.08N 99.84W
07/12/2007  M4.60 INCH       HODGEMAN           KS   PUBLIC

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE PENDENNIS         38.63N 100.27W
07/12/2007  M3.60 INCH       LANE               KS   PUBLIC

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N JOHNSON CITY        37.60N 101.75W
07/12/2007  M2.50 INCH       STANTON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

07
Local storm report, Jul 12, 12:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1230 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW UTICA              38.61N 100.22W
07/12/2007  M3.30 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NNE BEELER            38.53N 100.15W
07/12/2007  M5.00 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

            WASHED OUT NEWLY INSTALLED FENCE POSTS.

&&

07
Local storm report, Jul 12, 12:37 PM CDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1237 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             3 SW JOHNSON CITY       37.54N 101.79W
07/12/2007  E0.75 INCH       STANTON            KS   PUBLIC

            JUST A FEW HAIL STONES

1225 AM     HAIL             JETMORE                 38.08N 99.89W
07/12/2007  M1.75 INCH       HODGEMAN           KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

0725 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N BEELER              38.47N 100.20W
07/12/2007  M4.10 INCH       NESS               KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED FULL CULVERTS

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E JETMORE             38.08N 99.84W
07/12/2007  M4.60 INCH       HODGEMAN           KS   PUBLIC

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE PENDENNIS         38.63N 100.27W
07/12/2007  M3.60 INCH       LANE               KS   PUBLIC

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N JOHNSON CITY        37.60N 101.75W
07/12/2007  M2.50 INCH       STANTON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW UTICA              38.61N 100.22W
07/12/2007  M3.30 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NNE BEELER            38.53N 100.15W
07/12/2007  M5.00 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

            WASHED OUT NEWLY INSTALLED FENCE POSTS.

0912 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N OFFERLE             37.92N 99.56W
07/12/2007  M5.00 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

07

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 11, 11:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCStanton32 min
Jul 12, 12:27 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCHodgeman37 min
Jul 12, 1:56 AM CDTFlood WatchDDCBarber, Comanche, Edwards, Kiowa, Pawnee, Pratt and 1 more14 hr
Jul 12, 5:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCMorton, Stanton50 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Kansas, 2007Every river flood warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.