Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
255 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2007

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRI. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY TRIGGERING STRONG
STORMS OVER THE SD BLACK HILLS...AND SOME OF THESE STRONGER STORMS
COULD WELL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CYS FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL GO WITH
A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS UNTIL MID EVENING FOR NIOBRARA COUNTY WY
AS WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE. THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF WEAKER STORMS FROM MID EVENING THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
SATURATED LATE TONIGHT THUS SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT
MID MORNING THU. THU WILL NOT BE AS HOT AS TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
GARDEN VARIETY STORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE WY PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. FRI WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS
VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CO WILL WARRANT A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
STORMS FRI OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT CARBON COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SREF
ENSEMBLES SHOW 500MB HEIGHTS OF ONE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THUS EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEARLY 8 TO 10F DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
NEARLY 5 TO 7F DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EXPECT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM THE COLORADO GET
PULLED NORTHWARD MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH. WILL MOST LIKELY GET SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. NO PARTICULAR DAY APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT OVER
THE OTHER WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INDICATED BY THE MODELS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS GFS INDICATED WEAK COOL
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS MONTANA AND SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...LARGER DIFFERENCES IN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN
LOCATIONS OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THUS WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY
DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THU. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS OR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED...BUT AGAIN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JR
LONG TERM....MG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1057 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2007

NEZ001>003-021-WYZ060-191130-
SIOUX-DAWES-BOX BUTTE-MORRILL-NIOBRARA-
1057 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

NEZ019-020-054-055-WYZ059-061>070-191130-
SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-CONVERSE-SOUTHWEST CARBON-
NORTH CARBON-SNOWY RANGE-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
LARAMIE RANGE-PLATTE-GOSHEN-CHEYENNE FOOTHILLS-PINE BLUFFS-
1057 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
418 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TSTM WND GST     18 N HARRISON           42.95N 103.88W
07/18/2007  M58 MPH          SIOUX              NE   MESONET

&&

RUBIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
437 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             HEMINGFORD              42.32N 103.08W
07/18/2007  E0.75 INCH       BOX BUTTE          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL OCCURRED FROM 430 PM TO 435 PM MDT

0430 PM     HAIL             HEMINGFORD              42.32N 103.08W
07/18/2007  E0.88 INCH       BOX BUTTE          NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL OCCURRED FROM 430 PM TO 435 PM MDT

&&

RUBIN

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