High Wind Watch 11, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
253 PM MDT FRI OCT 19 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL GRADIENTS
AND IMPRESSIVE CRAIG-CASPER HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OF NEAR 70 METERS
AT 850/700 MB AT 12Z SAT...HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR MUCH OF OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING ZONES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. IMPRESSIVE 60+ KNOT JETLET AT 700 MB AT
12Z SATURDAY WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS AND PASSAGE OF BAROCLINIC BAND TO ALLOW FOR
DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT TO SURFACE. ALTHOUGH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE OF SHORTER DURATION THAN TODAY...BELIEVE THE THREAT
OF HIGH WINDS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH WIND WATCH
ISSUANCE. EVEN THOUGH THE WATCH BEGINS LATE TONIGHT IN THE 1ST
PERIOD...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE TO ISSUE A HIGH
WIND WARNING...AND WOULD PREFER TO DEFER TO LATER SHIFT TEAMS TO
ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONE 63...THE
SNOWY RANGE DUE TO COMBINATION OF HIGH LIKELIHOOD SNOW SHOWERS
COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC
BAND PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...WOULD PREFER TO GIVE A HEADS UP TO OUR CUSTOMERS ON
SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH WINDS ACROSS THE SNOWY RANGE. QUITE A
VARIANCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BASED ON FRONTAL TIMING.
BALMY IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND DOWNRIGHT NIPPY ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH WITH LOW QPF WITH IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC
ZONE PASSAGE AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. SUNDAY WILL BE A RAW
CHILLY DAY WITH DECENT WINDS DUE TO DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND DECENT GRADIENTS. PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WANES AND DYNAMICS
AND OROGRAPHICS DIMINISH. QUITE A CONTRAST IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY VERSUS SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.  RUBIN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT EAST ACROSS KANSAS
AND NEBRASKA BY LATE SUNDAY. LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW AROUND SUNDAY
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ENDING OVERNIGHT.

500MB HEIGHTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WARM
BACK TO THE MID-40S FOR HIGHS AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...IN THE MID-50S. WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.  CARPENTER

&&

.AVIATION...FOR TONIGHT VFR. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOUNTAIN
ASSOCIATED TURBULENCE ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MVFR AND IFR WILL DEVELOP IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RUBIN

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR WYZ059-WYZ060-WYZ061-
     WYZ062-WYZ063-WYZ064-WYZ065-WYZ066-WYZ067-WYZ068-WYZ069-
     WYZ070.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 3 PM SATURDAY FOR WYZ059-
     WYZ061-WYZ062-WYZ063-WYZ064-WYZ065-WYZ066-WYZ067.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY FOR WYZ063.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR NEZ001-NEZ002-NEZ003-NEZ019-
     NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RUBIN
LONG TERM....CARPENTER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1251 PM MDT FRI OCT 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST YODER                   41.92N 104.29W
10/19/2007  E49 MPH          GOSHEN             WY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS OVERTURNED TRAILER ALONG HWY 85 IN
            THE YODER AREA.

&&

BCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1255 PM MDT FRI OCT 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S CHEYENNE            41.07N 104.79W
10/19/2007  E49 MPH          LARAMIE            WY   PUBLIC

            SEMITRUCK AND TRAILER OVERTURNED ALONG I-25 NEAR THE
            TERRY BISON ROAD.

&&

BCHAPMAN

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