Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
333 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING SOME COOL AIR IN ALOFT AND COMBINED
WITH WEAK LIFT AND MARGINAL CAPE HAVE PRODUCED SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WITH THE HELP OF THE STRONG JULY SUNSHINE.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MID EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND ALSO AS
DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...LEAVING BEHIND A QUIET OVERNIGHT.  COULD
SEE A LITTLE GROUND FOG WHERE RAIN OCCURS...BUT OVERALL DIMINISHING
CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS IS THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE SAT.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN EARNEST LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE NW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG OVER THE
WESTERN U.S.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW.

THE FIRST WAVE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE CONTINUING INTO LATE MORNING. CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER SURFACE FIELDS AND HPC MANUAL
PROGS SUGGEST THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
PA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK....PROBABLY PREVENTING A RAPID RETURN TO
PROLONGED HEAT. TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL LOOK TO REMAIN WITHIN 5
DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES...HOWEVER ANY DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
SUNSHINE OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS WOULD SEND DAILY TEMPERATURES
10 PLUS DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONDITION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIG IN ISOLATED TSTORMS
THROUGH 02Z.  THESE WILL BE CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT AND UPWARD MOTION ALONG WITH MARGINAL
CAPES.  GIVEN SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY...WILL ONLY MENTION
VCSH IN THE TERMINALS ATTM. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION ALSO DIES OFF.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CIGS
LIKELY...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS POSSIBLE
MON THROUGH WED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
118 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-140530-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
118 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
504 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

PAZ056-132130-
PERRY-
504 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY...

AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEWISTOWN...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LOYSVILLE AROUND 515 PM...LANDISBURG AROUND
520 PM AND NEW BLOOMFIELD AROUND 530 PM.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11/15...ROUTE
322/22.

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
552 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

PAZ017>019-132230-
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-
552 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CLEARFIELD AND
SOUTHWESTERN CENTRE COUNTIES...

AT 550 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
CLEARFIELD TO 12 MILES NORTH OF TYRONE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR RAMEY...PHILIPSBURG AROUND 600 PM...
HOUTZDALE AROUND 605 PM...BLACK MOSHANNON STATE PARK AROUND 610 PM...
SANDY RIDGE AROUND 615 PM...PORT MATILDA AND UNIONVILLE AROUND 625
PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 161.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 219...ROUTE
220...ALT ROUTE 220...ROUTE 322...STATE ROAD 26...STATE ROAD 350.

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
557 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

PAZ026-035-036-132230-
FRANKLIN-FULTON-HUNTINGDON-
557 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FULTON...NORTHERN
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN HUNTINGDON COUNTIES...

AT 554 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF BREEZEWOOD...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR WILLOW HILL AROUND 610 PM AND DOYLESBURG
AROUND 615 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 168 AND 200.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 522.

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
605 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

PAZ051-053-132230-
COLUMBIA-MONTOUR-
605 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL COLUMBIA AND CENTRAL
MONTOUR COUNTIES...

AT 603 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF DANVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MILLVILLE AROUND 610 PM...BLOOMSBURG AROUND
615 PM...ORANGEVILLE AROUND 620 PM...STILLWATER AROUND 625 PM AND
BERWICK AROUND 630 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 224 AND 244.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 11.

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL