Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1200 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH STARTING TO GET SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST A
BIT...BUT THE HOT AND HUMID AIR IS HERE ALREADY. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY - PROVIDING THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SOUTH
FROM CANADA...AND PROVIDE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND PERHAPS BEYOND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE DECIDED ON POSTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND ADJACENT COUNTIES AS HOURLY
TEMPS IN MANY AREAS ARE TRENDING A FEW DEG HIGHER LATE THIS
MORNING THAN FCST. MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE TEMPS LEVEL OFF NEAR /OR
PERHAPS JUST A FEW DEG ABOVE/ THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST MAX
TEMPS...WHICH WILL TOP OUT AROUND RECORD VALUES ACROSS THE MID
SUSQ VALLEY.

CONVECTION TYPE /SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE PULSE TSRA
THE MAIN AREAS OF FOCUS FOR TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS OF
PENN EAST TO THE MID AND LWR SUSQ VALLEY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NW
MTNS NEAR THE BOUNDARY OF THE WEAK LAKE ERIE BREEZE.

POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED VALUES SLIGHTLY UPWARD ACROSS
SCENT AND SE PARTS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA BASED ON LLVL
THETA-E CONVERGENCE OFF THE NAM /WHICH HAS WORKED QUITE WELL WITH
SEVERAL PAST PULSE EVENTS THIS MONTH.

SVR WX IS JUST SLIGHTLY MORE OF A CONCERN TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...WHEN WE DID GET ONE SVR STORM AND ONE POSSIBLY SVR
STORM. THE SHEAR IS INCREASING AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...ESP
ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. BUT...SPC HAS TRIMMED THE SLIGHT
RISK A BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND KEPT US OUT OF
SLIGHT RISK. WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES STILL EXCEEDING 1500
J/KG IN SOME AREAS AND...AND 10-15KTS OF SHEAR...WE COULD GET A
COUPLE OF SVR PULSERS TODAY.

ANOTHER WORRY WOULD BE FOR THESE STORMS TO MOVE LITTLE WITH
RESPECT TO THE INFLOW...AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT...LACK OF
RAIN RECENTLY HAS ALLOWED THE 1-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES TO
CLIMB TO A LOFTY 3+ INCHES OVER ALL OF OUR CWA. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT MENTION HEAVY RAIN
/GULLYWASHERS/ POSSIBLE FROM ANY TSTORM IN ZFP AND HWO TEXT.

TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAY AND DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE
U60S TO LOWER 70S. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MAV AND FWC MAX TEMPS
AND MAV DEWPOINTS TODAY THAT DO NOT MAKE ANY LARGE PORTION OF THE
CWA OVER 100F HEAT INDICIES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL JUST CONTINUE TO
MENTION HAZY...HOT AND HUMID IN THE ZFP TEXT...AND NOT ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GRT LKS AND APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. TSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH
AT LEAST DURING THE EVENING...BUT WE WILL PROABLY LOSE LOTS OF THE
FORCING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WILL REDUCE POPS A BIT AFT
MIDNIGHT IN THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD FOR US...AS
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME...AND THE
SHEAR WILL BE MUCH HIGHER. WILL PLACE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE INTO THE WORDED FCSTS...MAINLY OVER MY
SOUTHERN HALF...AND NUDGE EVERYONE UP TO LIKELY POPS. NEWEST HPC
QPF GUID PLACES 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. THIS WOULD BE WELCOME RAINFALL IN MOST PLACES...AS THIS
DAILY PULSE STUFF IS MISSING MOST.

FROPA TIMING STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DELAYED A BIT LATER THAN
PREV THINKING HAD IT...AS THE SLOW PASSAGE TREND CONTINUES. BASED
ON THE LATEST MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUID...THE FRONT SHOULD BE ON OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER THURSDAY EVENING. THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SWD
THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A WAVE COULD DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AND FURTHER SLOW A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD PUSH UNTIL
FRIDAY. WILL LINGER POPS IN THE SOUTH A BIT LONGER ON FRIDAY...BUT
THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY
AND ALL PRECIP IN SOUTH-CENTRAL PA SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE AS IT
MOVES SEWD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE TRULY CP AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAX TEMPS
COOLER THAN CLIMO. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ENSUING WARM ADV REGIME WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE READINGS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO A PREDOMINANT NWLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED S/W
DISTURBANCES DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP LATER PDS DRY GIVEN LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW. OVERALL...NOT MANY CHANGES LONG TERM AND HAVE BLENDED LATEST
GMOS/HPC GUID WITH PREVIOUS FCAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AM DUE TO FOG AND
HAZE. SOME POCKETS OF IFR...AS THERE WAS SOME YESTERDAY AND
DEWPOINTS EVEN HIGHER NOW.

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO HEATING. FRONT WELL
TO THE NW. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HZ.

FRONT WILL NEAR TONIGHT...EXPECT A LOT OF MID LEVEL CLDS AND SOME
LOWER CLDS DUE TO SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOKING AT MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS.

FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ON THU...SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS A GOOD
BET. IF WE GET LITTLE RAIN...THEN IT MAY BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK UNTIL WE HAVE ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN.

WE ARE GETTING TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR...WHERE IT IS HARD TO GET
FRONTS TO MOVE VERY FAR SOUTH OF THE THE M/D LINE.

IN THIS CASE...THINK WILL SLOW WITH WEAK WAVES ALONG IT...BUT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR THINGS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN...FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ028-035-036-
046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1238 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033-034-037-041-042-045-281600-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
1238 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...OR LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.

PAZ028-035-036-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-281600-
JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1238 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND ALL OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...OR LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.

STEINBUGL/LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1241 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

PAZ049-051>053-271745-
COLUMBIA-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-UNION-
1241 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MONTOUR...NORTHERN
COLUMBIA...NORTHERN NORTHUMBERLAND AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES...

AT 1236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MILTON TO LEWISBURG...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER
TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR WASHINGTONVILLE AROUND 1255 PM...JERSEYTOWN
AROUND 100 PM...MOORESBURG AROUND 105 PM...MILLVILLE AROUND 110 PM...
RIVERSIDE AROUND 120 PM AND DANVILLE AROUND 125 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 196 AND 234...I-180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1
AND 6.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
147...ROUTE 11...ROUTE 15...STATE ROAD 45.

FORECASTER: LAMBERT