Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2007

Lake Effect Snow Warning 2, NWS State College, PA

January 19, 2007Warren County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this lake effect snow warning at Jan 19, 2007, 2:41 AM EST for Warren County, Pennsylvania. It took effect at Jan 19, 2007, 10:00 AM EST. It was in force for 30 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 19, 2007, 2:41 AM EST (07:41 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 19, 2007, 10:00 AM EST
Expired
Jan 20, 2007, 4:00 PM EST
In force
30 hr
Issued by
NWS State College, PA

County Warren County, PA

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2007-01-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2007-01-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 202 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1671 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
202 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
281 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS41 KCTP 190741
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
241 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND LAST INTO SATURDAY...

.A STORM WILL INTENSIFY OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...
CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DRAW COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS
THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...CAUSING SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

PAZ024-033-190845-
/O.CAN.KCTP.WS.A.0001.070119T1500Z-070120T1600Z/
CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
241 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS CANCELED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH. 

WHILE SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1
TO 3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE WINTER STORM WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELED. 

$$

PAZ004-191630-
/O.UPG.KCTP.LE.A.0001.070119T1500Z-070120T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.LE.W.0002.070119T1500Z-070120T1600Z/
WARREN-
241 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 AM EST SATURDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A FEW SQUALLS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH THE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELT AREAS OF NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY LIKELY TO SEE
THE MOST SNOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO
35 MPH DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE FOR EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST...MAKING TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL
LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER
HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO
ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND A CELLULAR PHONE IN
YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

PAZ005-191630-
/O.UPG.KCTP.LE.A.0001.070119T1500Z-070120T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.LE.Y.0003.070119T1500Z-070120T1600Z/
MCKEAN-
241 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 AM EST SATURDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERN PORTIONS OF MCKEAN COUNTY WILL SEE THE MOST
SNOWFALL BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO FLURRIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO
30 MPH DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE FOR EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

$$

DEVOIR
6 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS41 KCTP 191532
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1032 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO SATURDAY...

.A STORM WILL INTENSIFY OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...
CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DRAW COLDER CANADIAN AIR ACROSS
THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...CAUSING SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

PAZ004-200000-
/O.CON.KCTP.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
WARREN-
1032 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A FEW
SQUALLS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TOTAL STORM
ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO
8 INCHES...WITH THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELT AREAS OF NORTHWEST
WARREN COUNTY LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SNOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO
FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO
35 MPH DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE FOR EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST...MAKING TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL
LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER
HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO
ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND A CELLULAR PHONE
IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

PAZ005-200000-
/O.CON.KCTP.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
MCKEAN-
1032 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WESTERN PORTIONS OF MCKEAN COUNTY WILL SEE THE MOST
SNOWFALL BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO FLURRIES ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO
30 MPH DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE FOR EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

$$
000 
WWUS41 KCTP 192005
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.A STORM WILL INTENSIFY OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...
CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CROSS THE STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE
GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

PAZ004-200500-
/O.CON.KCTP.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
WARREN-
305 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A FEW
SQUALLS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TOTAL STORM
ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELT AREAS OF NORTHWEST WARREN
COUNTY LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST SNOW. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO
FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO
35 MPH DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE FOR EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST...MAKING TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL
LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER
HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO
ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND A CELLULAR PHONE
IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

PAZ010-017-024-033-200500-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SN.Y.0002.070120T0100Z-070120T1600Z/
ELK-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
305 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO
30 MPH DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE FOR EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

PAZ005-200500-
/O.CON.KCTP.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
MCKEAN-
305 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF MCKEAN COUNTY WILL SEE THE MOST SNOWFALL
BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS TO FLURRIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO
30 MPH DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE FOR EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

$$

TYBURSKI/MARTIN
000 
WWUS41 KCTP 192138
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
438 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.A STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FLOWING ACROSS THE
STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY.

PAZ004-200545-
/O.CON.KCTP.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
WARREN-
438 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY SQUALLS DEVELOPING AS WELL. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE TRADITIONAL SNOW
BELT AREAS OF NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO
35 MPH DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE FOR EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST...MAKING TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL
LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER
HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO
ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND A CELLULAR PHONE
IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

PAZ010-017-024-033-200545-
/O.EXT.KCTP.SN.Y.0002.070119T2138Z-070120T1600Z/
ELK-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
438 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY SQUALLS DEVELOPING AS WELL. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGE TOPS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER
TO FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO 30
MPH DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE
FOR EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

PAZ005-200545-
/O.CON.KCTP.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
MCKEAN-
438 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY SQUALLS DEVELOPING AS WELL. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 TO
30 MPH DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND
MAKE FOR EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

$$

LA CORTE
000 
WWUS41 KCTP 200324
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1024 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.A STORM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FLOWING ACROSS THE
STILL UNFROZEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY.

PAZ004-201330-
/O.CON.KCTP.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
WARREN-
1024 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELT AREAS
OF NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE FOR
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST...MAKING TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL
LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER
HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO
ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND A CELLULAR PHONE
IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

PAZ005-201330-
/O.CON.KCTP.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
MCKEAN-
1024 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE FOR
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

$$

PAZ010-017-024-033-201330-
/O.CON.KCTP.SN.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
ELK-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
1024 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY. 

SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGE TOPS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY
SATURDAY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE FOR
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$
000 
WWUS41 KCTP 200906
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007


PAZ004-201600-
/O.CON.KCTP.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
WARREN-
406 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
THIS MORNING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE THIS MORNING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELT AREAS OF NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY
EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE OCCASIONAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND MAKE FOR EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST...MAKING TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL
LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER
HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO
ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND A CELLULAR PHONE
IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

PAZ005-201600-
/O.CON.KCTP.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
MCKEAN-
406 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
THIS MORNING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
THIS MORNING. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES
BY THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE FOR
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

$$

PAZ010-017-024-033-201600-
/O.CON.KCTP.SN.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
ELK-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
406 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGE TOPS. THE SNOW WILL
TAPER TO FLURRIES BY THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE FOR
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

DEVOIR
000 
WWUS41 KCTP 201600
WSWCTP

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1100 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

PAZ017-024-033-201700-
/O.CAN.KCTP.SN.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-070120T1600Z/
CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
1100 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS CANCELLED THE
SNOW ADVISORY. 

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS WILL BRING LOCALLY UP TO
ONE INCH OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON.



$$

PAZ004-202100-
/O.EXT.KCTP.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070120T2100Z/
WARREN-
1100 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

SNOW SHOWERS AND NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
IN MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE OCCASIONAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND MAKE FOR EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST...MAKING TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL
LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW PER
HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO
ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND A CELLULAR PHONE
IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

$$

PAZ005-202100-
/O.EXT.KCTP.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-070120T2100Z/
MCKEAN-
1100 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON. 

SNOW SHOWERS AND NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL BRING
ANOTHER COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE FOR
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE
INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

$$

PAZ010-202100-
/O.EXT.KCTP.SN.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-070120T2100Z/
ELK-
1100 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE SNOW ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOWERS AND NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL BRING
ANOTHER COATING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES BY THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH
DEVELOP. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE FOR
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Jan 18, 8:38 PM EST, 6 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 18, 8:38 PM EST, 6 hours 3 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
838 PM EST THU JAN 18 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
VERY LIGHT SNOW ACSSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF POTENT UPPER
JET /170+ KTS/ ACROSS OHIO VALLEY NOW JUST ENTERING THE NW MTS.
VSBYS UPSTREAM ARE STILL ABOVE 5SM IN -SN...SO CURRENT WORDING
FOR CHC EARLY AND LIKELY POPS LATER TONIGHT IN THAT AREA JUST
FINE. ALSO...TIMING OF EARLY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE IS RIGHT ON
TARGET...AS IT BLASTS THRU BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z. WIND REALLY KICKS
UP DURING THE DAY WITH GOOD CHANNELLING/LOW DIR SHEAR AND
DEEPENING LOW UP TO THE NE. WITH VERY FLUFFY SNOW EXPECTED...THERE
COULD BE LOTS OF BLOWING SNOW...ALSO SUPPORTING THE GOING FCST.

SO FAR NO REPORTS OF SNOWFLAKES AT HARRISBURG /KMDT/KCXY/ NOR
LANCASTER /KLNS/ NOR YORK /KTHV/. THE SNOW-LESS WINTER CONTINUES
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA.

GAVE SERIOUS CONSIDERATION TO WHAT TO DO WITH THE WATCHES CURR IN
EFFECT AND THE SNOW ACCUMS FOR FRI-SAT. BEST CLUSTERING OF PRECIP
TOTALS IN THE 15Z SREF PLUMES IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH AREA
IS GENERALLY BTWN THE 0.25 TO 0.35 INCHES WITH EXPECTED SNOW:WATER
RATIOS OF PERHAPS 20:1...THIS WOULD BE BARELY/BORDERLINE WARNING
FOR WARREN COUNTY - AS WE NEED 6+ INCHES IN 12 HRS. THE LAURELS
LOOK DRIER THAN THAT...WITH WESTERLY FLOW INTO/UPSTREAM-OF THE
LAURELS USUALLY NOT CONDUCIVE TO PULLING RICH MOISTURE DOWN FROM
LAKE HURON OR LAKE ERIE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HPC GUIDANCE OF
LESS THAN 2 INCH ACCUMS IN THE LAURELS. WOULD NOT EXPECT THEM TO
REACH WARNING CRITERIA /WHICH ARE 6/12HRS OR 8/24HRS/...BUT THOSE
MOUNTAINS ARE QUITE AN OBSTACLE. WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL VERY
HIGH...WILL CHOOSE TO LEAVE ALL THE WATCH FLAGS AS IS...AND ALLOW
MID SHIFT TO FURTHER ASSESS THE SITUATION.

WILL TOUCH UP THE WATCH STATEMENTS AND SPS...AND SOME OF THE ZFP
TEXT WORDING FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 722 PM EST THU JAN 18 2007/

AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...
GRADUALLY LOWERING MID LVL AC/AS WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS THRU 06Z. LOWER SC BLW THE MID LVL
CLOUD DECK NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AIRFIELDS BTWN 03-06Z...BRINGING OCNL MVFR CIGS AND SCT
-SHSN ASSOC WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT UNDER A 160+KT ULJ AND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WRN GRT LKS MID LVL TROF/SFC CLD FNT. XPECT
FLYING CONDS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AFT 06Z AT KBFD/KJST AS
LES SNOW EVENT BEGINS TO UNFOLD. IFR/LIFR CONDS SEEM LKLY TOWARD
MORNING. FURTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL SITES /AOO-UNV/ LOOK FOR
CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 09Z WITH SCT -SHSN REDUCING VISBYS AT
TIMES TO 3-5SM THRU THE EARLY AM. EASTERN AIRFIELDS SHOULD STAY
HIGH END VFR THRU THE PD WITH OCNL -SHSN AT KIPT. KMDT SHOULD NOT
SEE MUCH MORE THAN A STRAY FLURRY...BENEFITING FROM DOWNSLOPE
FLOW.

S/SSW SFC WNDS /6-9KTS/ WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM...STIFFENING TO AOA 10KTS AND VEERING TO MORE WSWERLY. THE
EXCEPTION HERE WILL KIPT WITH ITS LWR ELEVATION ALLOWING FOR A
MORE LGT/VRB AND BACKED SFC WND. SFC CLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE CENTRAL
PA BTWN 11-16Z WITH SFC FLOW CONTINUING TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO WNW.
WINDS SHOULD REALLY PICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...BCMG
SUSTAINED 12-16KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30KTS.

LASTLY...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING PLENTY OF RETURNS ALOFT WITH THE
LLVLS STILL TO DRY FOR THE PCPN TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
SFC. WHILE THIS IS OFF LITTLE CONCERN NEAR THE GROUND...PIREPS
ACROSS WRN PA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE REPORTED SOME LGT RM
ICING BTWN THE LYRD MID LVL CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME FZRA AROUND
10KFT. IN ADDITION...MOST REPORTS ALSO INDICATE LGT TO MOD CHOP AT
FL350+ ASSOC WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ULJ /WV288161KT/.

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 326 PM EST THU JAN 18 2007/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TWO SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FIRST IS A SURFACE
LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE SECOND IS A
COLD/ARCTIC FRONT MARCHING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE EAST COAST BUT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH EAST...WITH HELP
FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT...THAT ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA. WE DO EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS EITHER WITH THE EAST COAST LOW OR THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SET UP A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY.
LAKE TEMPS NEAR 40 WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY BUT EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIMITED SHEAR...AND
FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH AREA. LEFT THE EARLIER ISSUED WATCH FOR WARREN
AND MCKEAN RIDE FOR ONE MORE PERIOD SINCE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WOULD
DEVELOP LATER ON FRIDAY. WANT TO SEE IF CONDITIONS WILL SET UP TO
DRIVE BANDS INTO MCKEAN AS WELL.

LATER FRIDAY...850 TO 700 MB WINDS TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH
WILL SEND THE LAKE BANDS INTO THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS. ALSO HAVE A
WATCH POSTED FOR THAT AREA BUT WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO
UPGRADE OR GO ADVISORY.

AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFF OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WINDS WILL PICK
UP ALLOWING FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST ON SAT AND SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE W AND N WILL TAPER OFF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN DIRTY
FLOW OVERHEAD. TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP IN SNOW
COVERED AREAS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WHILE TEENS WILL BE THE RULE
ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WAVE...MAINLY A MID LEVEL SYSTEM...SLIDES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND SUN
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SLIPS IN BEHIND...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY NORMAL.

STORM OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS SLIDES EAST NEXT WEEK AND GETS SHUNTED
TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW BRINGING A SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK.

RXR

AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING IN RESPONSE TO LOW OFF OF THE EAST COAST
AND APPROACHING FRONT. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
AS BOTH SYSTEMS RING THE CWA. DO NOT EXPECT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW VFR. ADDED VCSH IN LOWER ELEVATION
AIRFIELDS AS DO NOT FEEL THIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THESE
LOCATIONS. THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT AIRFIELDS OF KJST AND KBFD WILL SEE
HEAVIER SQUALLS INCREASING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WEST WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST AS THE EAST COAST SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP AS IT MOVES
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES AS WELL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ004-005.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ024-033.

&&

SHORT TERM...DANGELO
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 18, 4:08 AM EST, 22 hours 33 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
408 AM EST THU JAN 18 2007

PAZ004-005-024-033-190915-
WARREN-MCKEAN-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
408 AM EST THU JAN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

COLD AIR FLOWING OVER THE UNFROZEN GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO DEVELOP. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE SNOW OVER PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PAZ006-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-190915-
POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-
FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
408 AM EST THU JAN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AND LAST INTO SATURDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...NO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 18, 9:16 PM EST, 5 hours 25 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
916 PM EST THU JAN 18 2007

PAZ006-010>012-017-018-191000-
POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
916 PM EST THU JAN 18 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG
WEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. SNOW SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TWO TO
FOUR INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

ALONG WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS
ROAD CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITIES CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME DURING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

DANGELO

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 19, 2:41 AM ESTLake Effect Snow AdvisoryCTPMcKean37 hr
Jan 19, 3:05 PM ESTSnow AdvisoryCTPCambria, Clearfield, Elk, Somerset25 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2007Every lake effect snow warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.