Frost Advisory 2, NWS State College, PA

000 
WWUS71 KCTP 040303
NPWCTP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1103 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...

.CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY FROST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

PAZ028-056>059-041300-
/O.CON.KCTP.FR.Y.0002.070504T0700Z-070504T1300Z/
JUNIATA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-
1103 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...WITH A FEW OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS SEEING A
TEMPERATURE OF 32 OR 33 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS.

AREAS OF FROST WILL FORM AFTER 3 AM TONIGHT...AND PERSIST UNTIL A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON STARTED ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE
PAST WEEK TO 10 DAYS.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNPROTECTED
OUTSIDE.

$$

STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
116 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WITH BIG
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES...AND WILL KEEP CENTRAL PA UNDER A
CONFLUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY AIR TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER UNDER A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
SHOULD BE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH UNTIL ABOUT SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE /HIGH PRESSURE/ SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY RETURN BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CIRRUS ADVERTISED EARLIER WILL CONTINUE...BUT NO CU YET AS IT
IS STILL EARLY...BUT CONVECTIVE TEMP IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO
REACH TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST...AND
HOLD AFTERNOON MAXES AS IS IN THE 60S AND L70S DUE TO DEEP MIXING
AND 8H TEMPS RUNNING +3C IN THE NORTHEAST AND +6C IN THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY WORRY FOR TONIGHT - AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT - WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN SOME OF OUR AREAS THAT HAVE ENTERED THE
GROWING SEASON. SEE OUR WEBSITE /THE THRESHOLDS PAGE/ FOR A MAP
AND DATES OF START OF GROWING SEASON.

MINS THIS MORNING WERE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS FORECAST...WHICH COULD
BODE WELL FOR KEEPING OUR GROWING AREAS FROM FALLING INTO THE MID
30S LATER TONIGHT. BUT...WITH A LITTLE HIGH CLOUD HANGING
AROUND...IT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE A DEG OF DIFFERENCE. WILL
JUST MENTION PATCHY FROST IN THOSE ZONES FOR NOW...AND KEEP MINS
IN THE UPPER 30S. WILL RE- EVALUATE NEWEST GUIDANCE LATER...BUT
JUST CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN THE HWO AND
NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY YET.

THE NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL GET BELOW FREEZING EACH OF THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS...BUT THEY HAVE ALMOST A MONTH TO GO BEFORE THE DATE
OF THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE OF THE SPRING.

SUNSHINE MAY BE EVEN MORE PLENTIFUL ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY...WITH
LESS CIRRUS PROGGED AND LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO
CREATE MUCH DIURNAL CU. AGAIN...THE SOUTHWEST WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE SOME SCT CU. WILL GO FOR MAXES VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. 8H
TEMPS DO NOT WARM UP AT ALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE TO OUR NORTHWEST SHOULD KEEP AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS LIGHT
WINDS AND WITH BELOW NORMAL MOISTURES...PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT -1SD BELOW NORMAL...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COLD
SIDE. ALL MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRIDAY-MONDAY SO THERE IS
LITTLE REASON TO GO AGAINST GUIDANCE. IT MIGHT BE POSSIBLE TO
NUDGE LOW TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN GUIDANCE. AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY
AM HAS THE ANTICYCLONE OVER US WITH THE DRIEST AIR...COULD BE A
VERY CHILLY MORNING.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO APPROACH NORMAL
LIMITS. AGAIN GEFS PLUMES SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY AND HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST.

BY MONDAY OUR HIGH SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WEAKENS. SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RETURN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AM AND
INTO TUESDAY.

WITH SW FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD BE AT
LEAST AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NORMAL PROBABILITY FOR EARLY MAY. THE
GEFS SHOWS ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT OF ITS MEMBERS WITH RAIN TUESDAY AND
MORE ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AT THIS TIME WOULD BE IN THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME. LOTS OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE. THE PLUME AND
2M TEMPS IN THE GEFS AND CMCEPS BOTH SHOW MEMBERS DIVERGING IMPLYING
THAT AS THE HIGH RETREATS THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTS WILL
DECREASE.

TUE-WED THE 925 AND 850 HPA TEMPS ARE ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH GOING
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IS RISKY AS CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASE.
THE TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM IN THESE FORECASTS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FINE FLYING WEATHER IS IN STORE WITH FAIR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KMDT DATA OUTAGE APPEARS TO LIE ON THE FAA SIDE OF THINGS.
APPROPRIATE CONTACTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MADE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...LACORTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>027-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
064>066-040700-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
255 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ028-056>059-063-040700-
JUNIATA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
255 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S. IF LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
INTO THE MID 30S...A FROST ADVSIORY WOULD BE NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DANGELO