Wind Advisory 8, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WWUS74 KCRP 220915
NPWCRP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
315 AM CST THU NOV 22 2007

TXZ242>247-221015-
/O.CAN.KCRP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-071122T1500Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...
ROBSTOWN...PORT ARANSAS...PORTLAND...INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...
SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA...
PORT OCONNOR...SEADRIFT
315 AM CST THU NOV 22 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY. 

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING...THUS THE WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

JAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
316 PM CST WED NOV 21 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUES ARE THE
WINDS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS (I.E. HIGH ENOUGH GUSTS FOR AN
ADVISORY) AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...PROGGED
TO GO THROUGH THE NORTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND KCRP
AREA AROUND 9 PM. FORECAST WINDS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES ARE IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40 MPH. LOCAL
CRITERION IS TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR GUSTS NEAR OR (AND
ESPECIALLY) ABOVE 40 MPH SO HAVE GONE WITH ADVISORY. WITH FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY BOTH IN TIMING AND IN VALUE BUT
DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT SINCE ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS NEAR
THE COAST WILL GET WET...WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH TO TIP THE
BUCKET AT LEAST ONCE IS STILL MOOT. COOLER AND WINDY BEHIND THE
FRONT...STAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER NUMBERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
BUT DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE COOLEST MOS SINCE CLOUDS WILL
ENSHROUD THE AREA SO RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE NIL. ISENTROPIC
PATTERN STARTS LATE THURSDAY (MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE COOL AND
BREEZY/WINDY BUT NOT MUCH IN RAIN)...BUT MAIN RAIN PROBABILITY WILL
BE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC PATTERN DEVELOPING ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT. LOOKS TOO STABLE AT 850MB TO WARRANT
THUNDER AT THIS TIME BUT COULD NOT RULE IT OUT. NO HIGHER THAN 50
POPS THOUGH...SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD MUCH LOWER POPS AND KEPT
THINGS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER OFFICES FOR NOW...LATER SHIFTS CAN
ADJUST. THAT IS ALL...

&&

.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COLD AND WET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPR TROUGH. THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. STRATIFORM RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. THE
SURFACE FEATURE IS PROGGED TO BROADEN AND EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO WEST TEXAS. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPR
TROUGH...SO WILL THEREFORE INCREASE POPS SUNDAY GIVEN THE SLOWER
CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE MID/UPR LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO EXIT
TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH S/WV RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE WRT THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE GFS DEVELOPS A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF
DIGS A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE DEATH VALLEY REGION. EITHER WAY...THINK
MID/UPR RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL INFLUENCE SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER AND
PRODUCE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORESO THAN THE MID/UPR LOW WELL TO THE WEST GENERATING LIFT OVER
SOUTH TEXAS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A RESULT.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AREAWIDE...DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND CANADIAN AIR MASS IN
PLACE. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND THE AIR MASS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS MODIFIES. TEMPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW...IF NOT NEAR SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...SCA ALREADY HOISTED WITH FROPA LIKELY BEFORE MIDNIGHT
ALL MARINE INTERESTS. MAINTAINED GUSTS AOA GALE FORCE FOR TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    50  55  45  56  47  /  50  20  50  50  60
VICTORIA          45  52  40  53  43  /  40  10  40  40  60
LAREDO            51  55  44  53  45  /  20  10  20  20  40
ALICE             48  55  42  53  46  /  50  20  40  40  50
ROCKPORT          49  55  45  56  50  /  50  20  50  50  60
COTULLA           47  55  39  52  43  /  10  10  20  20  40
KINGSVILLE        49  56  44  55  47  /  50  20  50  50  50
NAVY CORPUS       55  60  50  57  51  /  50  20  50  50  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT OCONNOR...COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

GW/86...SHORT TERM
TM/95...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
538 AM CST WED NOV 21 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-212345-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
538 AM CST WED NOV 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND INTO THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION THIS
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.

NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THANKSGIVING THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT
THANKSGIVING DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED. NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

TMT/TE