Tornado Warning 25, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WWUS54 KCRP 161203
SVSCRP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
703 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

TXC175-161230-
/O.CON.KCRP.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-070816T1230Z/
GOLIAD-
703 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM CDT FOR GOLIAD
COUNTY...

AT 701 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A ROTATION WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF GOLIAD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  GOLIAD BY 715 AM CDT...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF WEESATCHE BY 730 AM CDT...

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 2868 9764 2870 9766 2871 9770 2888 9746
      2867 9720 2860 9718 2861 9724 2853 9724
      2849 9733

$$

GW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
540 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS
APPROACHING THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MAKE
LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ALL OF THE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL HAS REMAINED CONFINED TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...AS ERIN MOVES
INLAND INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATER TODAY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD
DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL BEND
AND CWA WITH RICH TROPICAL INFLUX. THE THREAT FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF
IT HEAVY...WITH CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AS
DEEP SOUTHERLY FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN
MOVE NORTHWEST TO NEAR THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY FRIDAY. NAM SHOWS
MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING OVER SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2.5 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR WEST FOR FRIDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO FRIDAY BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MAKE THAT
DECISION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOISTURE REMAINING OVER
OVER THE COASTAL BEND SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. BUT SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND CAN NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE EACH DAY FOR THE
COASTAL BEND. MODELS ARE SIMILAR SHOWING AN TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE COASTAL BEND MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS TUTT LOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WILL BE WATCHING HURRICANE DEAN CLOSELY BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS DEAN MOVING QUICKLY WEST ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY. CURRENT
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST HAS DEAN MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
COZUMEL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TRACK IS SIMILAR TO HURRICANE
GILBERT (1988) BUT SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS SIMILAR TO ALLEN (1980).
GFS SHOWS LANDFALL SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE SIMILAR TO GILBERT TRACK.
WILL INCREASE WINDS AND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO
BE OVERLY CONFIDENT ON TRACK INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  77  89  79  91  / 100  90  80  50  50
VICTORIA          84  76  87  78  90  / 100  90  80  50  60
LAREDO            92  78  92  78  96  /  70  60  60  60  30
ALICE             87  77  90  77  92  /  90  90  80  50  50
ROCKPORT          85  78  87  81  89  / 100  90  80  50  40
COTULLA           88  76  90  76  92  /  90  90  60  70  30
KINGSVILLE        87  77  89  79  91  /  90  80  80  50  50
NAVY CORPUS       86  79  87  81  89  / 100  90  80  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...
     CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

     INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
     KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND
     WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND
     WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR...COASTAL
     WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS PORT
     ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

JTR/76...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
520 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-162230-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
520 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST
OVERNIGHT...AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT ARANSAS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI TO PORT ARANSAS LATE THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING. AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE COMMON FOR
SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AS
THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES INLAND THURSDAY. SOUTH TEXANS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.