Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
433 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE GFS/NAM PROG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AT THE 300K LEVEL TO DECREASE THIS AFTN...INCREASE AGAIN TNGT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...THEN DECREASE SUNDAY AFTN. WL REFLECT THESE
CHANGES IN THE POPS. ALTHOUGH LI VALUES ARE POSITIVE...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SO OVR THE CWFA DRG THE PERIOD...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. THE LIKELY CULPRITS ARE SIGNIFICANT CAPE
ALOFT AND INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. YET...WL COMPROMISE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ISOLATED THUNDER. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WL
MOVE ACRS THE REGION TNGT/EARLY SUNDAY...THUS CAPE VALUES ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE/REMAIN SIGNIFICANT. THUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE
TO ADDITIONAL MSTR CONVERGENCE ALG THE COASTAL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY AFTN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.MARINE...A COASTAL TROUGH PERSISTS OVR THE COASTAL WATERS.
ASSOCIATED STG MSLP GRADIENT WL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
COASTAL WATERS ...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
BY AFTN. ALTHOUGH MOMENTUM WL DECREASE OVR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...SEAS WL REMAIN IN THE SCA CATEGORY. INSTABILITY/MSTR
CONVERGENCE WL CONTRIBUTE TO PRIMARILY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS
TROUGH WL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AFTER PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.
OWING TO PERSISTENT NE FLOW SINCE YDA...WL MONITOR FOR PSBL COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
DIMINISHING BY MONDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MON-TUE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.
PUSHED BACK THE RETURN FLOW TO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE MID SOUTH KEEPS THE LOW LVL RIDGE IN
TACT. NEXT MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH RACES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INDUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES EAST ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE
FRONT ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOD-
STRONG NE WINDS. HOWEVER THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE
LAST FRONT. TRENDED TEMPS CLOSE TO GFS MOS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES THE FIRST WEEK
OF DECEMBER AS A BITTER COLD AIRMASS PLUNGES SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER DUE TO A BUCKLING OF THE JETSTREAM OVER ALASKA. STAY
TUNED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    58  46  55  44  67  /  70  70  70  30  10
VICTORIA          53  42  50  41  67  /  70  70  70  30  10
LAREDO            54  43  51  45  70  /  60  60  60  10  10
ALICE             55  43  52  43  69  /  60  70  70  20  10
ROCKPORT          59  47  56  44  69  /  70  70  70  30  10
COTULLA           52  41  49  40  69  /  60  60  60  10  10
KINGSVILLE        57  44  54  43  69  /  70  70  70  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       60  49  57  48  69  /  70  70  70  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

WC/87...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM