Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
559 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

.UPDATE...A WELL-DEFINED JET STREAK STRECTHING FROM EAGLE PASS TO
SAN ANTONIO IS PROVIDING SYNOPTIC ASCENT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS JET
STREAK WL AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. A SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENT WAS ALSO
PUSHING WWD ACROSS THE RIO GRNADE PLAINS...AIDING IN THE BOUNDARY
LYR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. LAPS WAS SHOWING CAPES EXCEEDING 4000
J/KG ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH NO CIN. DUE TO THE ALL OF
THESE FACTORS...EXPECT EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT SVRL HOURS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. MOISTURE WL
NOT BE AN ISSUE AS PWS REMAIN BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.3 INCHES FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA TNT. NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CELLS WL PROMOTE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TNT AND AGAIN ON MON. WITH ALL
OF THESE FACTORS AND THE FACT THAT THE SOILS ACROSS THE WESTERN
AREAS REMAIN WET...BLV A FFA IS IN ORDER. WL ISSUE A NEW FFA FOR THE
7 WESTERN COUNTIES AND CONTINUE THE WATCH TRHOUGH 18Z MONDAY. THE
WATCH WL LKLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT TIME AS MORE HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MON AND TUE.

DECIDED TO CANCEL THE SCA SINCE THE WINDS WL AVERAGE CLOSER TO THE
SCEC CRITERIA. MADE A FEW OTHER CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  77  87  76  /  50  70  50  60  30
VICTORIA          74  87  74  87  74  /  40  70  40  70  30
LAREDO            77  93  77  93  75  /  60  50  50  50  60
ALICE             74  89  76  89  75  /  60  70  60  70  50
ROCKPORT          79  87  79  87  79  /  50  60  40  50  30
COTULLA           74  90  75  91  74  /  60  50  50  50  60
KINGSVILLE        75  89  77  88  76  /  50  70  60  60  40
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  80  87  79  /  50  50  50  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...JIM WELLS...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
     MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

MB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
515 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-021015-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
515 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINES
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2
INCHES PER HOUR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS
OF HIGHER RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN....MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY...WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED TOTAL AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ISOLATED ON SATURDAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

TMT/TE