Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
311 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ONCE AGAIN MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES AND MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION. EXPECTING ANOTHER MCS TO FORM NORTH OF
THE CWA DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS ONE SHOULD
MORE OF AN EFFECT ON SOUTH TEXAS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME WEAK DYNAMICS IN PLACE...IN THE FORM OF A JET
STREAK...WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. NOCTURNAL
COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO ASSIST IN SOME STREAMER SHOWERS
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND GULF WATERS. SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SOUTH TRANSITIONING TO LIKELY POPS NORTH TONIGHT. INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY TO INCLUDE HIGH END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WILL GRADE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
SOUTH TO CHANCE NORTH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS/CIGS. OVERNIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED IFR VSBYS/CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY ACROSS ALL WATERS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCEC CRITERIA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL BE
WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY
MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HOLD BACK
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POPS INTO THE
LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE MID COAST REGION MONDAY BUT EXPECT
THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR INTRUDING ON THE REGION...SO WILL GO
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL REGIONS MONDAY. THE
NAM ALONG WITH THE GFS SHOW A MID/UPPER LEVE SHEAR AXIS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. WILL PLACE 20/30 PERCENT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL
INCREASE THE AREA OF CHANCE POPS TO ALL OF THE COASTAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND AND THURSDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  75  92  78  /  20  20  20  20  10
VICTORIA          73  87  73  91  76  /  60  50  30  20  10
LAREDO            78  98  79 103  81  /  40  20  20  10  10
ALICE             75  91  74  96  76  /  30  30  20  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  89  79  89  80  /  40  30  30  20  10
COTULLA           73  91  74  98  77  /  60  30  30  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  92  74  94  77  /  20  20  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  79  90  80  /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

KRR/97...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
700 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-171030-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
700 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES
SOUTH AND 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN....SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 109 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

85/87

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

TXZ239-162115-
WEBB-
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING WEBB COUNTY...

AT 309 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA BRIDGE...OR 22
MILES WEST OF LAREDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM
BETWEEN 345 PM AND 400 PM AROUND LAREDO.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
514 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

TXZ229-239-162315-
LA SALLE-WEBB-
514 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES...

AT 508 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF ENCINAL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ARTESIA WELLS BY 520 PM CDT.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SCC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

TXZ239-170000-
WEBB-
615 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING WEBB COUNTY...

AT 615 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAS TIENDAS...OR 24 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ENCINAL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SCC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
716 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

TXZ229-170115-
LA SALLE-
716 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING LA SALLE COUNTY...

AT 715 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF LOS ANGELES...OR 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DILLEY. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SCC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
739 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

TXZ229-230-170145-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-
739 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN
COUNTIES...

AT 739 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FOWLERTON...OR 21 MILES EAST OF
COTULLA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...BRIEF BUT VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SCC