Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
648 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR SVR BOX #266. ZFP...CWF AND GRIDDED PRODUCTS
SENT OUT. EXTENDED POPS OUT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR BOX. BEST SHOT
FOR SEVERE WILL BE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
WHERE COOLEST MID LEVEL AIR EXISTS. SEVERE CONCERN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007/

SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WL RETAIN LOW POPS FOR
THIS EVENING/TNGT OWING TO THE UPPER LOW. BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY/
TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER Q-VECTOR PATTERN...SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THE LAND AREAS BY 06Z FRI...THEN OVR THE
COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z FRI. THUS DO NOT EXPECT PCPN FRI/FRI NGT...
DESPITE SIGNIFICANT PW VALUES PROGD BY THE GFS. THE GFS THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST CLOUDS DRG THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MARINE...BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORY/TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW...
WL RETAIN A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION UNTIL FRIDAY AFTN. WIND/SEAS WL
REMAIN BELOW SCEC CATEGORY.

AVIATION...MSTR WL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MVFR CEILINGS DRG THE 06Z-15Z
FRI PERIOD OVR THE CNTRL/ERN CWFA...WITH THESE CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
DRG THE 06Z-12Z SAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG-TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN CONCERN IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS THE PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE COASTAL BEND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...WITH PWATS PROGGED
TO BE BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7. ALSO A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
BACK END OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH TX...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
AREAS. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE EASTERN CWA ON SAT AND SUN. REST OF PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL BE UNUSUALLY LIGHT OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SE FLOW EXPECTED TO PICK UP
TUES INTO WED. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    64  83  65  86  65  /  20  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          63  84  62  87  63  /  30  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            69  93  69  93  71  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             63  86  63  89  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  80  67  85  68  /  30  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           64  88  63  90  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        63  85  64  87  66  /  20  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       67  79  68  84  69  /  20  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

GW/86...PUBLIC/GRIDS
TE/81...MESO/AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-111100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
546 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND ALSO THE ADJACENT WATERS. SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL
EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH
TEXAS DUE TO AN UPPER LOW AFFECTING THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. ONCE AGAIN...LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
FOR THE COASTAL BEND.

MB/JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
745 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

TXZ234-110115-
VICTORIA-
745 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING VICTORIA COUNTY...

AT 741 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INEZ...OR 9 MILES WEST OF EDNA...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

TE