Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1012 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.UPDATE...STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION REMAINS FROM UVA SOUTH INTO
MEXICO. STRONGER TSTMS WEST OF LRD HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT TO CROSS
THE BORDER AS THEY REMAIN ANCHORED IN MOIST RICH THETA-E RIDGE
AXIS. THE STORMS ARE CONFINED THERE DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE
EAST ACROSS COASTAL BEND. NEW THIS WOULD BE AN ISSUE LIMITING
EASTWARD PROGRESSION...BUT DID THINK MORE WOULD CROSS THE BORDER
BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THESE STORMS ARE
BEING AIDED BY NICE DIFFLUENT ZONES ACROSS NERN MEX AND SW TEXAS
AND HAVE SEEN SOME IMPRESSIVE STORMS IN MEXICO. SOME STORMS HAVE
BEEN JUST CREEPING EAST LAST HOUR...SO TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE
THAT THE SVR THREAT IS OVER IN FAR WEST. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY
WEAK LOW TOPPED SHOWERS BENEATH THE CAP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
W/ SEVERAL OBS SITE REPORTING -RA...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP W/ THIS ACTIVITY. WILL UPDATE TO CLEAN UP SOME
CLOUD WORDING AND WILL NEED A LATE UPDATE TO HANDLE CHANGES IN
CONVECTION OUT WEST AND THE WATCH AS WELL.

NOTE THE CRP RADAR APPEARS TO BE HAVING SOME RPG ISSUES AND THE
RADAR IS FORCING ITSELF BACK INTO CLR AIR MODE FOR NO APPARENT
REASON. AM WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.

&&

.MARINE...HAD TO UPDATE TO PLACE THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS
IN SCA. APPARENTLY WATER TEMPS ARE REACHING THE MAGIC TEMPERATURES
THAT ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL JET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...AS PORT A AND BOB HALL BOTH HAVE INCREASED TO A SOLID
SCA DESPITE WEAKER LLJ TONIGHT (25 TO 35 KTS). BUOY 19 IS AROUND 17
KNOTS...BUT WILL INCLUDE OFFSHORE AS WELL AS BUOY 20 IS USUALLY
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF OUR AREA AND IS TYPICALLY 3 TO 5 KNOTS
HIGHER THAT BUOY 19 ON THESE TYPY NIGHTS (OF COURSE CANT CONFIRM
THAT DUE TO BUOY 20 OUTAGE). EVEN PORT OCONNOR TCOON WAS INTO SCA
LEVELS THIS EVENING...BUT BAYS SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF AND WILL
KEEP THEM IN CAUTIONS LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  85  70  84  67  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          70  86  66  84  63  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            76  95  72  91  71  /  30  10  20  30  30
ALICE             71  89  68  86  67  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  82  71  83  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           71  90  68  86  67  /  40  10  20  30  30
KINGSVILLE        72  87  70  86  67  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  82  72  82  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

MJG...UPDATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
459 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-081000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
459 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DUE TO LARGE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CORPUS CHRISTI BAY AND
BAFFIN BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG...CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.