River Flood Warning 19, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
322 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...THE COMBINATION OF
COPIOUS MSTR (OWING TO MOST RECENT PROXIMITY AND DETERMINISTIC PW
OUTPUT) AND INCREASING UPPER FORCING (Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SYSTEM PROGD TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH) WL RESULT IN NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...ESP AFT 06Z
TUE. THE CONVECTIVE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WL PERSIST OVR THE ERN CWFA...
AND WL EXTEND WEST TO INCLUDE THE WRN CWFA LATE TUE. THE NAM/GFS
NOT CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE PSN/TIMING A SFC BNDRY.
NOTWITHSTANDING THE BNDRY...WIDESPREAD FLOODING REMAINS PSBL GIVEN
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL COVERAGE/LOW FFG VALUES. THE THREAT FLOODING
WL BE GREATEST OVR THE ERN CWFA OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
CONVECTION MOVES OVR REGIONS THAT EXPERIENCED ISOLD 6-8+ INCHES OF
RAINFALL TODAY. THE THREAT WL INCLUDE THE CNTRL/WRN CWFA TUESDAY
AFTN/TUESDAY NGT AS THE UPPER FORCING SHIFTS WESTWARD. THUS WL
RETAIN AND EXTEND THE FFA THROUGH TUESDAY NGT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
NOT TO EXCEED TO 80S TUESDAY OWING TO RAINFALL/LIMITED INSOLATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP OVR THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AFT 06Z TUE WITH IFR ELSEWHERE OWING TO INCREASING
CONVECTION. THEN PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED 15Z TUE-00Z
WED...WITH IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS OWING TO HEAVY RAIN. PREVAILING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE PSBL AFT 06Z WED...ESPECIALLY OVR THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL BE CONSISTENT WTIH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW...YET BELOW SCA CRITERION. THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WL INCREASE DRG THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL IS FORECASTED TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
COTULLA/EAGLE PASS/LAREDO. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE POOLED OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS...RANGING FROM 2.15-2.4 OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. HIGH POPS ARE IN ORDER...RANGING FROM LIKELY
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
WHERE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/SYNOPTIC ASCENT BEST. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR AT
LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...POSSIBLY THE ENTIRE CWA. THE LOW
DRIFTS SOUTHWEST INTO MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. GFS LOOKS
POSSIBLY SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING LOW FM 00-06Z THU JUST WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE...NEVERTHELESS DO EXPECT HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
WED NIGHT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE LOW DRIFTS FURTHER WEST (JUST SOUTH
OF THE BIG BEND). BUT HIGH PWS (2-2.3) WILL REMAIN POOLED UP THE
RIO GRANDE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...SO HIGH END SCATTERED POPS WILL
STILL LOOK GOOD OUT WEST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE PW DROP OFF STEADILY...AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN BASICALLY ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO
SEABREEZE/DIABATIC HEATING FORCING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  76  85  78  87  /  80  70  80  40  60
VICTORIA          83  74  85  75  86  /  90  70  80  40  60
LAREDO            91  76  91  77  88  /  60  60  50  70  80
ALICE             86  75  87  76  87  /  80  70  80  60  70
ROCKPORT          83  78  84  80  87  /  70  70  80  40  60
COTULLA           88  74  89  75  87  /  60  60  50  70  80
KINGSVILLE        85  76  86  77  88  /  80  70  80  50  60
NAVY CORPUS       84  79  84  80  87  /  70  70  80  40  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

WC/87...SHORT TERM
JR/76...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
507 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

GMZ230-235-TXZ229>234-239>247-030000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-LA SALLE-
MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-
KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
507 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND FLOODING
OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE LIKELY. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF
SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE  THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TOTAL AMOUNTS
OVER 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/TE

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