Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WWUS84 KCRP 011019
RFWCRP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
419 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

TXZ229>234-239>247-012300-
/O.CON.KCRP.FW.W.0003.070301T1600Z-070301T2300Z/
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
419 AM CST THU MAR 1 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST 
WINDS...

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
BEHIND IT A DRY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION
OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...AND COULD AID IN EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

MW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1010 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING...EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE PATCHY SEA FOG WILL PERSIST. ANTICIPATE SEA
FOG TO BECOME DENSE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FOG ALSO
DEVELOPING INLAND ACROSS THE ERN CWA. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE TEMPS...AND RE-ESTABLISHED HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT/RH TRENDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ANOTHER DAY OF HUMID/WARM
CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER STEEP INVERSION. ALSO LOOKING AT
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL WITH THE DENSEST FOG CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS SOME SEA FOG ADVECTS INLAND. AWAY FROM THE
COAST...LOW- LEVEL JET OF 25 KNTS WILL LIFT THE FOG INTO A LOW
STRATUS DECK THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG OF 4-5 MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS WHERE WINDS DECREASE A BIT MORE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S THOUGH TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE SCNTRL
PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AROUND 06Z AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY AROUND 18Z.
COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AS LOW-LEVEL JET
DECREASES. 850MB WINDS BECOME WEST- SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PRODUCING A CAP SO OTHER THAN A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE COASTAL
BEND...NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. QUITE A
SPREAD IN MOS TEMPS FOR THURSDAY WITH THE MAV QUITE A BIT WARMER
THAN THE NAM BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS MAV AS EXPECT GOOD DOWN SLOPING
WITH NW COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z WITH
RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE BY 16-17Z. DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE A PACIFIC FRONT BRINGS IN MUCH
DRIER AIR BY LATE MORNING ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

MARINE...PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER WEST
TEXAS. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.

FIRE WEATHER...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
MORNING AND OFF THE COAST BY NOON. BY AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WHILE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 15 TO 25
PERCENT OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY PRODUCE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS SO HAVE POSTED A RED FLAG WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...PACIFIC AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER BEHIND
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY. STRONGER FRONT
COMES DOWN ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR AS HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. NO MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN WITH
THE BOUNDARY. COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND BRINGS MOISTURE BACK AND SLOWLY MODIFIES
AIRMASS. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS BY THEN BUT NO NOTABLE STORM SYSTEMS
IN SIGHT. ERGO...NO RAINFALL. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER
TO DISCUSS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  64  80  49  79  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          78  62  80  44  77  /  10  10  10   0   0
LAREDO            89  62  82  50  82  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             83  61  82  47  81  /  10  10   0  10   0
ROCKPORT          77  63  78  51  76  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           86  57  81  45  80  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        82  62  83  47  82  /  10  10   0  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       77  65  79  52  76  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...
     KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

JR/76...SHORT TERM
TT/89...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
534 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-011145-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
534 AM CST WED FEB 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO TWO TO FOUR
MILES OVER THE COASTAL BEND. SEA FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
AS LOW AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN
MUCH DRIER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL DROP LOW ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MW/GW