Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WWUS84 KCRP 221218
RFWCRP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
618 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

TXZ229>234-239>247-222030-
/O.CON.KCRP.FW.W.0010.071222T1800Z-071223T0000Z/
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
618 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON. 

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. DRY
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN MANY LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS....DRY AIRMASS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PROMOTE DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

000 
WWUS84 KCRP 222236
RFWCRP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
436 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

TXZ229>234-239>247-230200-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-071223T0200Z/
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
436 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

THE COASTAL BEND...VICTORIA CROSSROADS...AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
REGIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EXTREMELY DRY
CONDITIONS. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS...A DRY AIRMASS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

87

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
952 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2007

.UPDATE...NO UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO TODAYS FORECAST. RETURN FLOW
WILL RESUME THIS AFTERNOON. JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS SKIRTING ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WILL TAKE A LOOK AND RED FLAG POTENTIAL
BEHIND TOMORROWS FRONT WITH THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2007/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LOW DEWPOINTS AND GOOD
DECOUPLING HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMALS FOR LATE
DECEMBER THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN RESUMING RETURN FLOW
AS A DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH KICKS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS. THAT RETURN FLOW SHOULD BOOST HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THEM JUST A CATEGORY OR TWO SHY OF THURSDAYS
HIGHS.

THE RETURN FLOW ALSO WILL BRING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...WHICH BECOMES MORE APPARENT FRIDAY NIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAIN 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE THIS MORNINGS LOWS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER OR SO OVER FAR NERN SECTIONS...THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY
WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST.

HAVE OPTED TO REMAIN WITH THE FAR MORE CONSISTENT NAM IN RESOLVING
THE STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN ARE
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATER WHERE HIGH SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY...WITH SOME POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM LATE SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WILL LEAVE ANY
LAND-BASED HEADLINES OUT FOR NOW AS EXPECT RH LEVELS TO BE TOO HIGH
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...AND SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DESPITE NAMS TENDENCY TO UNDERESTIMATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
OUT AHEAD OF STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGES...THINK ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HARD TO DEVELOP WITH CAPPING ALOFT PRIOR TO FROPA...AND
STABILIZATION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIPITATION AFTER
PASSAGE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST ZONES ALONG THE FRONT SEEM THE
BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE TODAY.

MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK WILL TURN ONSHORE AND
GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT SIGNAL VERY STRONG WINDS...SLOWLY DECAYING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF HIGHER GUSTS IN THE CWF.

LONG-TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES THRU THE EXTENDED. A SERIES OF BOTH SHORT AND LONG WAVES
WILL TRAVERSE THE CONUS AND AID IN BRINGING A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
THROUGH S TX THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH ON SAT NIGHT/SUN WILL SETTLE ACROSS S TX ALLOWING WINDS TO
RELAX. A WEAK AND RATHER FLAT MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BLD ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS LEADING TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT. ALONG WITH RATHER COOL SUN
MAX TEMPS DUE TO DECENT CAA.

MODELS DIFFER ON SOLNS OF A SFC TROF DVLPG NEAR THE COAST ON MONDAY.
THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH A SFC TROF AND MUCH WETTER WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW RIDING OVR THE SFC HIGH SITTING ACROSS TX. THE ECMWF IS
DRY WITH A WEAKER SFC TROF AND SHOWS IT FARTHER EAST OVR THE
WATERS. THE SFC TROF WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN AND THUS
LOCATION OF HIGHEST QPF WILL DEPEND ON LOCATION OF SFC TROF. FOR NOW
INCLUDED A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS E CWA FOR MON...GIVEN THAT
BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOW TRACKING ACROSS TX THROUGH MON AND THE
RRQ OF THE JET MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION WITH INCREASING
UPPER DIFFLUENCE. AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NE THRU TUE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS REINFORCED ACROSS S TX ALONG WITH DRIER AIRMASS AND
MODERATING TEMPS. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS W TX ON THU IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LOW RESULTING IN ONSHORE
FLOW...INCREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  62  76  40  58  /   0  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          77  57  71  35  56  /   0  20  20   0   0
LAREDO            83  55  74  39  59  /   0   0  10   0   0
ALICE             82  58  76  37  58  /   0  10  10   0   0
ROCKPORT          75  62  74  43  57  /   0  20  20   0   0
COTULLA           80  52  71  32  58  /   0   0  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        81  60  78  39  59  /   0  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       77  64  75  44  56  /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

JR/76...SHORT TERM
JR/19...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
552 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-221200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
552 AM CST FRI DEC 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS/RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND PRODUCE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS/RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.