Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
240 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD TNT ACROSS THE STATE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SVR WX AND FLASH FLOODING WL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. WIND
SHEAR WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KT WHILE MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN. CAPES WL INCREASE TO OVER 2000 J/KG DURING THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. WV IMAGERY INDICATED SVRL SPEED
MAXIMA AND A VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA TNT. WL THUS
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SVR WX FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TNT. DEEP MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH PWS ABV 1.5 INCHES WL MAINTAIN A HVY RAIN THREAT.
BASED UPON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS IN MCS ACTIVITY...THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL WL BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA. A SLY LLJ BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WL CONTINUE TO FEED COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THIS PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...THIS AREA
HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SVRL INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE YDA MORNING.
WED WL BE A TRANSITION DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN AREAS AS THE UPR LOW PASSES
JUST TO OUR NORTH. MAY SEE SOME MORE STRONG STRONG STORMS WITH HVY
RAIN. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE AND DEVELOPING SW/W BOUNDARY LYR FLOW
ACROSS THE WEST WL END PCPN CHCS RATHER ABRUPTLY BY WED MORNING.
LINGERING RAIN CHCS WL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NERN AREAS EARLY WED
EVENING. A DRYING TREND WL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY WED
AFTN AND EVENTUALLY ALL AREAS WED NIGHT. KEPT THE PREVIOUS TEMP
FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST OF THE
CWA. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREAKS MAY COME EARLIER AND MORE
OFTEN OUT WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH INTO THE
90S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW FOG
FORMATION AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

CONTINUING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING TO USE CONSENSUS OF
SEVERAL MODELS TO PROJECT FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND NEGLIGIBLE SUPPORT...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST AS THE FRONT PASSES.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMALS AS FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS WL RISE ABV MVFR THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST AREAS
THIS EVE EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS AND THICKER CLOUD CVR WL EXIST. BY MIDNIGHT...MVFR
CEILINGS WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. RAPID
LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS EXPECTED BURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WED AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH WED AFTN AND ACROSS THE VCT
AREA THROUGH 00Z THU.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS MAY APPROACH LOW-END SCA ACROSS THE SRN BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT PICKS UP. THE
GRADIENT WL THEN WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING 4-5 FT
SWELLS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  80  65  82  62  /  60  30  20  10  10
VICTORIA          61  75  60  81  59  /  80  50  20  10  10
LAREDO            64  89  66  94  62  /  60  10  10  10  10
ALICE             62  84  62  85  61  /  60  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          62  75  66  80  62  /  70  40  20  10  10
COTULLA           61  86  60  90  62  /  70  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        62  83  64  84  62  /  60  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       63  77  67  80  65  /  60  30  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

MB/80...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
507 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-141100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
507 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND DAY TIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE OF
STORMS TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS TO ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 37 AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA TO BECOME SEVERE ON
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JR/BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1134 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 AM     HAIL             CROSS                   28.60N 98.55W
03/13/2007  E0.75 INCH       MCMULLEN           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT FROM THE MCMULLEN COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE

&&

NHAMPSHIRE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
137 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXZ232-244-246-131900-
BEE-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-
137 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING SAN PATRICIO AND APPROACHING
BEE AND REFUGIO COUNTIES...

AT 131 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF EDROY...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
SINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

JM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
145 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXZ230-231-131945-
LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-
145 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING LIVE OAK AND MCMULLEN
COUNTIES...

AT 145 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CALLIHAM...OR NEAR CHOKE CANYON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

JM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
247 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXZ231>233-132030-
BEE-GOLIAD-LIVE OAK-
247 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING BEE...GOLIAD AND LIVE OAK
COUNTIES...

AT 244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

JM