Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
854 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES ELONGATED UPPER LOW FROM THE
TX/MEXICO BORDER...NE INTO CENT TX. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CIRCULATION. LOOKING AT THE SHORT
RANGE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS (SREF) FROM THE SPC WEB SITE INDICATES
BEST CHANCES FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN LARGE SPREAD IN MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH. WITH BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOCUSED
OVER THE EASTERN REGIONS...MAY NUDGE POPS UP TO 80%...AND DOWN TO
60% OVER THE EXTREME WEST. 88D LOOP ALREADY SHOWING BAND OF HEAVY
RAIN JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN GULF...WHICH SHOULD HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE TO MOVE/SPREAD BACK TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT JULY 4:

CC AIRPORT...3.50 INCHES
VICTORIA.....2.13 INCHES

RADAR ESTIMATES MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING:

THE NE CWA...LARGE REGION OF 1-2 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE REGION WITH AREAS OF 4-8 INCHES OVER N SAN PATRICIO...REFUGIO...
ARANSAS AND CALHOUN COUNTIES.

&&

.MARINE...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS INDICATE AN UPWARD TREND IN THE
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS EAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW. AGAIN...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN MODELS IS LOW. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS ALL GULF ZONES TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK
TO ADD TIMING...SHOWING THEM INCREASING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL MAINTAIN A SORT OF PERSISTENCE FORECAST SINCE MODEL
FORECASTS CANNOT BE TAKEN VERBATIM. CONVECTION/TEMPOS THIS EVENING
ARE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE HAVE CONVECTION STARING ARND
08Z ALL BUT KLRD. EXPECT MOST OF CONVECTION TO OCCUR TIL ARND
17Z...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH. STILL WILL HAVE TEMPOS/PROB30S FOR
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD SINCE DAYTIME HEATING COULD
RE-DESTABILIZE ATMOS AND GET STORMS GOING AGAIN. CIGS/VSBYS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE FROM CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  85  76  88  76  /  70  50  40  30  20
VICTORIA          75  84  74  88  75  /  70  60  50  40  20
LAREDO            74  90  76  95  77  /  70  60  50  30  30
ALICE             75  85  75  90  75  /  70  60  50  30  20
ROCKPORT          77  84  78  87  78  /  60  40  40  30  20
COTULLA           72  85  73  91  75  /  70  60  60  40  40
KINGSVILLE        76  85  76  89  76  /  70  50  40  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  84  78  87  78  /  60  40  40  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

RM/33...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-042215-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
546 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS COMBINED WITH AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS
FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...FLOODING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/TE