Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 231949
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
246 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

TXC479-232015-
WEBB-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF LAREDO
246 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...

AT 240 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT LAW 
ENFORCEMENT WERE SETTING UP BARRICADES AROUND TWO STREET 
INTERSECTIONS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF LAREDO DUE TO STREET FLOODING.

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ORVIL AND
LAREDO

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2763 9915 2736 9916 2734 9944 2767 9957

$$

TE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
940 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

.UPDATE...GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS IN PLACE
ACROSS S TX...SHORT WAVES...DAYTIME HEATING AND LATEST RADAR
TRENDS WITH PRECIP S OF THE CWA MOVG N...AM GOING TO INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WET PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS
WELL AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISMS. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.2
INCHES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CURRENT MODELS SHOW HIGHEST PWATS
REMAINING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH TODAY...THEN SLOWING
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH
VIRTUALLY NO CAP IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY. WILL GRADE POPS FROM
HIGH END CHANCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EAST TODAY/TONIGHT. AS HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE SHIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...WILL GRADE POPS FROM CHANCE POPS OUT WEST
TO HIGH END CHANCE POPS EAST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
LASALLE...MCMULLEN...WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTIES DUE TO VERY SATURATED
GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAIN AND THE CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. MAX
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK TO MODERATE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
NEAR STORMS.

AVIATION...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY RESULT IN PATCHY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FROM WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS
ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST STORMS.

MARINE...WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER WEST TEXAS. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.  THE MAIN TRIGGERS
FOR CONVECTION WL BE A PERSISTENT SHEAR AXIS AND DAYTIME HEATING.
THE ACTUAL MID-LVL SHEAR AXIS WL INITIALLY LIE ACROSS THE CWA AND
THEN BEGIN TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY MIDWEEK.  SOUTH TX WL REMAIN ON
THE DIFLUENT MOIST SIDE OF THIS SHEAR AXIS THROUGH TUE.  PWS WL
REMAIN 1.8-2.1 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUE.  WITH NO CAP IN
PLACE AND THE OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS MENTIONED EARLIER...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WL BE THE RESULT.  AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE
SHEAR AXIS BEGINS TO WANE ON WED...PCPN CHCS WL BEGIN TO LOWER AS
CONVECTION BECOMES LESS AND LESS FOCUSED.  BY THU AND FRI...THE
DYNAMICS WL BE OVER WITH AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT WL HAVE DIMINISHED
TO MORE MARGINAL LVLS.  AS A RESULT...WL GRADUALLY SHOW A SUBTLE
DRYING TREND FOR THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME.  WL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO THROUGH TUE.  WL SHOW A SUBTLE WARMING TREND FROM WED
AND BEYOND DUE TO THE GRADUAL DRYING OUT PROCESS.  THE OVERALL
GRADIENT WL PICK UP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PEAKING ON MONDAY
NIGHT.  MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  75  87  76  88  /  70  40  50  30  50
VICTORIA          85  73  87  74  87  /  70  40  50  30  60
LAREDO            87  74  91  78  94  /  70  50  40  30  20
ALICE             86  73  87  74  91  /  70  50  50  30  40
ROCKPORT          86  77  87  79  87  /  60  40  40  30  60
COTULLA           86  72  88  75  92  /  70  50  40  30  20
KINGSVILLE        86  74  87  75  90  /  70  40  50  30  50
NAVY CORPUS       85  77  87  79  87  /  70  40  40  20  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DUVAL...LA SALLE...MCMULLEN...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

TE/81...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
547 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-241100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
547 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
BETWEEN 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ACROSS THE EAST AND 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS
THE WEST. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
LASALLE...MCMULLEN...WEBB AND DUVAL COUNTIES DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAIN AND THE CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA COMBINED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS.  SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS.  LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM AT TIMES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND WET SOILS.

RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE DECREASES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KR/MB