Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 051723
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

TXC469-051731-
VICTORIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLACEDO...VICTORIA
1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR VICTORIA COUNTY...

RAINFALL HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE WARNED AREA. AS A RESULT...THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR VICTORIA COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 2854 9706 2854 9715 2877 9716 2887 9723
      2885 9728 2884 9730 2888 9730 2910 9698
      2900 9683 2871 9665 2866 9672 2861 9690
      2857 9693 2849 9692

$$

TM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1015 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

.UPDATE...MCS HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE SRN COASTAL BEND...BUT YET TO
REACH NRN AREAS NEAR VCT. WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OFFSHORE LEAVING
A LARGE AREA OF STRATAFORM RAIN (WHICH STILL EXTENDS TO COT) TO
FOLLOW. ALREADY UPDATED TO CATEGORICAL POPS EARLIER TODAY W/
DECREASING RAIN CHCS THROUGH EARLY AFTN. PROBABLY DID NOT LOWER
HIGHS ENOUGH...BUT WILL DUE THIS WHEN THE UPDATE TO REMOVE THE
WATCH IS SENT. SVR RISK ENDINGS RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AND
HAVE ALREADY REMOVED THE WATCH FROM WRN 6 RIO GRANDE PLAINS COS.
HOWEVER KEPT POPS HIGH A FEW MORE HOURS DUE TO TRAILING STRATAFORM
PRECIP. DONT EXPECT WILL NEED TO EXTEND WATCH PAST NOON EXPIRATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007/

UPDATE...SEVERE WEATHER WATCH 346 HAS BEEN ISSUED SO UPDATE IS
FORTHRCOMING. CONVECTIVE LINE IS INCREASING AS IT MOVES ESE TOWARD
AREA. POTENTIAL FOR WIND EVENT IS THE MAIN CONCERN THOUGH INFLOW
IS WEAK. STILL...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY SO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY IS
WHETHER MCS CURRENTLY OVER THE BEND REGION WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF OR
DIE OVER NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WHETHER ANY BOUNDARIES FROM THE
CONVECTION...IF THE FORMER IS TRUE...WILL IMPACT AREA LATER IN THE
DAY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINTENANCE
OF CONVERSION...SINCE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON (Q/G
FORCING IS POSITIVE)...AND JET STREAK IS ON THE UNFAVORABLE SIDE.
THUS...ANY FORCING WILL HAVE TO BE SURFACE-BASED AND THERE IS A LOT
OF CAPE AND NOT MUCH IN CIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WILL BE WEAK. IN SHORT...NOT CLEAR CUT SITUATION AND AT
THIS TIME WILL MONITOR LATEST TRENDS BUT AT THIS TIME WILL PUT LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SINCE CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION IS NOT STRONG
DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT (IF NOT SUPPRESSIVE TO
IT) AND GUIDANCE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE
CHANGES AS NECESSARY AND MONITOR LATEST TRENDS BEFORE ISSUING
FORECAST...AS AT TIMES MODELS HAVE BEEN USELESS IN THE FIRST 12-24
HOURS AS OF LATE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE OVER WITH BY TONIGHT AND
WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN PRECIP. APPEARS NEXT TWO PERIODS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY WENT ON THE
WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND
DRIER AIRMASS. FIRST PERIOD POPS LISTED BELOW SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EXPECT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP THIS MORNING BUT THAT WILL BE BASED ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS OF
MCS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK UP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD
BE BELOW SCA IF NOT SCEC...LATTER WILL BE BORDERLINE.

AVIATION...NOT TO SOUND AS A BROKEN RECORD...BUT THUNDER IN TAFS
WILL BE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WITH MOST MENTION OF THUNDER BETWEEN
14Z AND 20Z.  EXPECT AT LEAST A CI SHIELD THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS DURG THE AFTN. SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUES FOR TAFS
OVNT...MAYBE SOME MVFR BR LATE OVR KVCT AND KALI.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FORECAST THU AND FRI LOOKS
DRY...WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES WED NIGHT THRU FRI. UPR LVL
RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO FRI. HIGHER MOISTURE/PW
ASSOC WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL ALSO
GET PULLED NWD INTO THE ERN CWA ON FRI...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ISOLD STREAMER SHOWERS. WILL NOT MENTION IN FORECAST YET. A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPR LVL RDG WILL DVLP OVERHEAD ON SUN AND MON...
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR ISOLD RWS. FOR
NOW WILL JUST HAVE GHOST POPS IN THE GRIDS AND HAVE NO MENTION IN
ZONES GIVEN THIS IS DAY 6 AND 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  75  92  80  91  / 100  10  10   0   0
VICTORIA          90  73  93  78  92  /  80  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            95  79 104  80 104  /  30  10   0   0   0
ALICE             91  73  97  78  95  / 100  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          89  78  91  81  90  / 100  10  10   0   0
COTULLA           93  74 100  78  99  /  80  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        91  74  95  80  94  / 100  10  10   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       88  78  90  81  89  / 100  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

MJG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
549 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-061100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
549 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER
INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE BAYS AND GULF
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO ACTIVATE THEMSELVES THIS MORNING.

GW/JTR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

TXZ234-245>247-051630-
ARANSAS-CALHOUN-REFUGIO-VICTORIA-
1030 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING ARANSAS...CALHOUN...REFUGIO
AND VICTORIA COUNTIES...

AT 1030 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MCFADDIN TO 6 MILES
WEST OF SEADRIFT TO PORT OCONNOR...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16
MILES WEST OF LONG MOTT TO 6 MILES WEST OF SEADRIFT TO PORT
OCONNOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LONG MOTT BY 1040 AM CDT.
  BLOOMINGTON BY 1055 AM CDT.
  PLACEDO BY 1105 AM CDT.
  MAGNOLIA BEACH BY 1110 AM CDT.
  PORT LAVACA BY 1120 AM CDT.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1048 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CORPUS CHRISTI          27.71N 97.29W
06/05/2007                   NUECES             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES AND STREET LIGHTS DOWN ACROSS THE CITY.

&&

NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1106 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND PORT ARANSAS            27.83N 97.08W
06/05/2007  M62 MPH          NUECES             TX   MESONET

            MEASURED OFF TCOON SITE.

0942 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 E CORPUS CHRISTI      27.71N 97.28W
06/05/2007  M62 MPH          NUECES             TX   MESONET

            MEASURED OFF TCOON SITE IN CORPUS CHRISTI BAY.

0942 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 7 S CORPUS CHRISTI      27.60N 97.29W
06/05/2007  M58 MPH          NUECES             TX   MESONET

            MEASURED OFF TCOON SITE IN THE PACKERY CHANNEL.

1000 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 18 E LOYOLA BEACH       27.33N 97.41W
06/05/2007  M46 MPH          KLEBERG            TX   MESONET

            MEASURED OFF TCOON SITE IN BAFFIN BAY

&&

NH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1111 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

TXZ247-051700-
CALHOUN-
1111 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS WERE SPOTTED OVER CALHOUN COUNTY...

AT 1015 AM CDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER AND THE COAST GUARD
REPORTED SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER CALHOUN COUNTY...NEAR PORT
OCONNOR.  ADDITIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CALHOUN COUNTY AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH NOON.

IF YOU LIVE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
SEEK SHELTER IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THE FUNNEL CLOUD REACHES THE
GROUND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1113 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SE PORT OCONNOR       28.42N 96.38W
06/05/2007                   GMZ330             TX   COAST GUARD

            COAST GUARD REPORTED SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER THE OPEN
            WATER BY THE JETTY.

&&

NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1118 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HAIL             3 SE VICTORIA           28.79N 96.95W
06/05/2007  E0.25 INCH       VICTORIA           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

NH