Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
339 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND IS LOCATED (AS OF 20Z) ABOUT 30 NM OFFSHORE.
PARENT MID/UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE ENERGY SOURCE
MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTH TEXAS...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL OUT
AND REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN
MUCH (IF ANY) PRECIP DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL RETAIN 20-30
POPS OVER THE GULF AS THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE WEATHER GRIDS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING IN CASE THE FRONT DECIDES TO
RETROGRADE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
THE SECOND CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL. EVEN THOUGH DRIER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT...STANDING WATER FROM TODAYS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST...RADIATION
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED COASTAL PLAINS AND INLAND COASTAL BEND
WHERE THE BEST COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL BE. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
EITHER EXPANDED OR CONTRACTED LATER TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
IMPACT THE DRIER AIR WILL HAVE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT (IF ANY DEVELOPS
AT ALL) LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE
SHOULD WASH OUT LATE TONIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD WARM NICELY TO ABOUT A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 AROUND 10Z-11Z...EXCEPT FOR SITES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL CONDITIONS OVER THE
BAYS AND GULF SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MUCH OF MODEL
CONSENSUS IS INDICATING SLOWER AND WEAKER FROPA DURING MID
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SURGE COME FRIDAY. GFS IS STILL FLIPPING
AROUND ON MOISTURE FIELDS DURING THE INTERVAL...SHOWING MORE OF A
WETTER FORECAST NOW THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
ANY MODEL AT THIS TIME AS FORECAST GOES FARTHER OUT. FOR
NOW...WILL ADJUST POPS A BIT MID WEEK AND BEYOND BUT NOT GO AS
HIGH AS MEX-MOS IS GOING. FEELING IS THAT UPPER SUPPORT AFTER
TUESDAY IS RATHER LIMITED SO FOCUS WILL HAVE TO BE FRONTAL FORCING
AND MOS MAY BE A BIT TOO WET BASED ON ITS MOISTURE FIELDS.
THUS...PRECIP FORECAST IS AS FOLLOWS...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE MOISTURE RETURN IS A
BIT BETTER AND VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT LATE MONDAY AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CALLS FOR A CHANCE FOR PRECIP...A BIT
LESS ON TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE MORE LIMITED AND JET DYNAMICS
LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS. SLOWER FROPA WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL BRING LOW CHANCE PRECIP AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG BOUNDARY.
BETTER MOISTURE FIELDS MOVE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO RAINFALL
LIMITED TO ONLY EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHERE SOME WEAK FORCING MAY
OCCUR. NEXT BOUNDARY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH GFS HINTING
AT DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN ON SATURDAY SO DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY BASED ON CHANGES IN FRONTAL
TIMING...MOISTURE FIELDS...AND ISC COLLABORATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  83  69  81  70  /  10  10  10  30  20
VICTORIA          55  84  66  80  68  /  10  10  10  40  20
LAREDO            61  90  71  89  72  /   0  10  20  20  20
ALICE             57  85  68  85  69  /  10  10  10  30  20
ROCKPORT          62  81  69  79  70  /  10  10  10  40  20
COTULLA           53  86  67  87  68  /   0  10  10  20  20
KINGSVILLE        57  85  68  84  69  /  10  10  10  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       61  80  69  79  70  /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

TM/95...SHORT-TERM
GW/86...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1149 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-011700-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1149 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TM/JR/TMT