Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
406 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LOCALIZED SHEAR ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENHANCED BY PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH MVG INLAND
PROVIDED AN INTERESTING DAY WITH SMALL SPIN UPS...TORNADOES AND
WATERSPOUTS IN THE COASTAL BEND. SEE LSRS. ALL THATS LEFT IS A
LARGE AREA OF STATAFORM RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND
NEARSHORE WATERS AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND TSTMS HAVE SHIFTED
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS NEAR I-35. THIS WILL BE THE AREA W/ THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS EVENING...THEN SCT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND ESP EARLY SUN MORNING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD A BIT MORE OVER THE REGION
ON SUN...BUT RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION
LEAVING DEEP ESE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS S TX. NOT BUYING THE RAPID
DRYING FROM THE SE AS INDICATED BY THE GFS WHICH HAS HAD A BIAS
TOWARD DRYING THINGS OUT TO RAPIDLY IN DEEP ONSHORE FLOW CASES.
THEREFORE WILL FORECAST POPS WELL ABOVE THE MAV INDICATING HIGH
END SCT TO LIKELY POPS ONCE AGAIN ON SUN. DO THINK PRECIP WILL
SHIFT INLAND A BIT FASTER AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NW OF THE
REGION. BASED ON THIS WILL ALSO LEAN TOWARD COOLER MOS HIGHS ON
SUN W/ MID-UPR 80S ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 90 ONLY IN THE FAR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC SOLNS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UPPER RIDGE...WITH GENERALLY
AN E-W ORIENTED AXIS...ACRS THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD...WITH STG
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE CNTRL/NRN CONUS. BASED IN PART ON
THE RECENT GOES SOUNDER DATA...EXPECT COPIOUS MSTR TO LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO SCT CONVECTION. EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE
TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS. THUS WL FCST SCT ACTIVITY MON...THEN
EXPECT ONLY ISOLD DIURNAL/NOCTURAL CONVECTION TUE-THU (DO NOT EXPECT
THE UPPER RIDGE TO SUPPRESS ALL CONVECTION.) THE GFS/ECMWF PROG A
TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVR THE CARIBBEAN REGION...TO MOVE ACRS
THE SRN GULF AND PROVIDE FOR SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING MSTR FRI/SAT.
THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS MSTR INCREASE. ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST SCT CONVECTION FRI/SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  87  77  90  75  /  50  60  30  30  10
VICTORIA          74  87  74  90  71  /  50  60  30  40  20
LAREDO            77  94  77  94  74  /  50  40  40  30  30
ALICE             74  88  75  91  72  /  40  60  40  40  20
ROCKPORT          77  86  79  88  78  /  50  60  30  30  10
COTULLA           74  90  74  94  72  /  50  40  40  30  30
KINGSVILLE        75  88  76  91  73  /  40  50  30  30  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  80  87  78  /  50  60  30  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

MJG...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1117 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-301200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
1117 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS REGION AND NEARBY
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES MAINLY NEAR THE COASTAL BEND AND
COASTAL PLAINS AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IS STILL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

AN ISOLATED WEAK WATERSPOUT COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS COPIOUS MOISTURE PERSISTS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS MOISTURE
DECREASES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
131 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     TORNADO          ARANSAS PASS            27.89N 97.14W
09/29/2007                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

87

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
147 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     WATER SPOUT      5 E ARANSAS PASS        27.89N 97.06W
09/29/2007                   GMZ235             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AROUND 1230 PM...A WATER SPOUT SPOTTED NEAR PORT ARANSAS
            JETTIES. AROUND 1245 PM...A BOAT WAS REPORTED CAPSIZED
            NEAR THE SHRIMP BOAT CHANNEL BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
            ARASAS PASS. 4 OCCUPANTS WERE REPORTEDLY SITTING ON TOP
            OF THE BOAT AND NEEDED RESCUE.

1240 PM     TORNADO          PORT ARANSAS            27.83N 97.08W
09/29/2007                   NUECES             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POSSIBLE TORNADO. MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOFS AND RAILING ON
            BALCONIES OF SEVERAL HOMES WITH PATIO FURNITURE AND
            DEBRIS THROWN INTO STREETS. POSSIBLY ASSOCIATE WITH A
            WATER SPOUT THAT MOVED ASHORE.

&&

MJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
201 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     TORNADO          ARANSAS PASS            27.89N 97.14W
09/29/2007                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PORTION OF ROOF RIPPED OFF DOLLAR GENERAL STORE ON
            WHEELER.

&&

MJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
228 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     TORNADO          ARANSAS PASS            27.89N 97.14W
09/29/2007                   SAN PATRICIO       TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PORTION OF ROOF RIPPED OFF DOLLAR GENERAL STORE ON
            WHEELER. SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE AND
            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN IN THE SAME AREA. ALSO REPORTS
            THAT SEVERAL CARS WERE FLIPPED AND DAMAGED AND ONE MINOR
            INJURY OCCURRED WHEN BROKEN GLASS FLEW INTO THE EYE OF A
            TIRE REPAIR WORKER.

&&

MJG