Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 311215
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
712 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

TXC469-311300-
VICTORIA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF VICTORIA
712 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
VICTORIA COUNTY...

AT 709 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO TRAIN 
ACROSS CENTRAL VICTORIA COUNTY. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
ACROSS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN 
VICTORIA COUNTY TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CITY OF VICTORIA. AN 
ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES 
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF 
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY... 
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND 
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2877 9716 2886 9722 2884 9726 2904 9688
      2903 9685 2893 9680 2887 9673 2881 9673
      2880 9670 2876 9669 2861 9717

$$

JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
423 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...WILL KEEP IT BRIEF DUE TO
ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. LONG TRACK
SUPERCELLS THAT CAME ACROSS SRN EWX CWA HAVE MOVED INTO NRN CRP CWA
AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND MAY BE SHOWING SIGNS OF MERGING INTO
A LINE. MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE NE CWA. IN ADDITION...0-1KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NE
AND NRN CWA THRU 10 AM.

FARTHER S AND W...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT WILL MERGE LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SE CWA...AND COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED TYPE CONVECTION. BUT BY THAT TIME H85 FLOW WILL BE
VEERING TOWARDS THE SW. WILL KEEP HIGH END CHC POPS GOING ACROSS THE
S FOR THE TIME BEING.

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY AND WILL SEE CLEARING BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AND A COOLER NIGHT...WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EARLY
PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. STILL LOOKS DRY FOR SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO AROUND
1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY AS AN ENERGETIC SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN THAN TUESDAY WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. GFS/ECMWF/CAN ARE ON
TRACK WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS BY FRIDAY WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. GFS SHOWS MOISTURE RETURNING ALSO BUT WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND WILL PUT IN TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  59  82  68  81  /  50  10  10  10  30
VICTORIA          73  53  82  65  80  /  70  10  10  10  40
LAREDO            81  62  90  70  88  /  20   0  10  20  20
ALICE             77  57  85  67  83  /  50  10  10  10  30
ROCKPORT          74  60  80  69  79  /  60  10  10  10  30
COTULLA           79  54  86  66  84  /  20   0  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        78  58  85  68  83  /  50  10  10  10  30
NAVY CORPUS       75  61  80  70  79  /  50  10  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

JR/76...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
506 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

GMZ235-255-TXZ231>234-245>247-011000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
506 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS MORNING.

GMZ230-250-270-275-TXZ229-230-239>244-011000-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-WEBB-DUVAL-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-
SAN PATRICIO-
506 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JR/TMT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
430 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

TXZ232-233-311030-
BEE-GOLIAD-
430 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING BEE AND GOLIAD COUNTIES...

AT 425 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF PETTUS...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF KENEDY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION...OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
531 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

TXZ233-234-311130-
GOLIAD-VICTORIA-
531 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING GOLIAD AND VICTORIA
COUNTIES...

AT 524 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GOLIAD...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE CITIES OF FANNIN...VICTORIA AND DACOSTA.

JR