Flash Flood Warning 109, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
104 AM CDT TUE JUL 24 2007

.UPDATE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS GENERATED A FLARE UP OF
CONVECTION SOUTH OF BEEVILLE. RAISED POPS FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY.
THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
INCREASED POPS TO LOW END CHANCE OUT INTO THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS IN CASE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMS ALONG SOUTHWEST MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007/

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND ALSO
TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS ON THE DECREASE
AND ALSO WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION DIMINISHING AS WELL. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING WITH RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION CONFINED TO
COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007/

UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A ROBUST AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED IN A NORTH AND SOUTH MANNER FROM THE RED
RIVER AREA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. 18Z NAM DEPICTS THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD AND SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE VERY WELL. WITH
THIS INITIALIZATION VERY WELL HANDLED HAVE GONE WITH NAM DEPICTION
FOR THIS EVENING. THIS DEPICTION SHOWS A POTENTIAL TRAINING TYPE
OF SITUATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY MID
TO LATE EVENING WITH VORT LOBE SWINGING DOWN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS POTENTIAL TRAINING...ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS...HAS
PROMPTED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST WITH A STRATIFICATION OF POPS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCHES POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN CWA...AS
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN NLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES S TO SW AND USHERS IN
ONGOING CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVR CENTRAL TX. ALSO...ISOL CONVECTION
HAS DVLPD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE CWA NEAR THE COAST ALONG OUTFLOW
BDRIES/SEABREEZE BDRY AND ACROSS THE WRN CWA DUE TO REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THESE TSRAS ARE GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED PULSE TYPES
WHILE THE STORMS MOVG IN FROM CENTRAL TX ARE ASSOC WITH THE S/WV ARE
LONGER-LIVED/TRAINERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA LATER INTO
THE EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF TSRAS WITH TEMPO
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THEN BRIEF PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT TSRAS ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY E EARLY SHIFTING
W THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
MG/88...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
921 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-241030-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
921 PM CDT MON JUL 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ENCINAL THROUGH GEORGE WEST TO VICTORIA.
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXIST NORTH OF THIS LINE.
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND
FLOODING. INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
FROM A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALIZED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE MORE
SLOWER MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS.

SOUTH OF THIS ENCINAL TO GEORGE WEST TO VICTORIA LINE...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

THIS THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL DUE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR FLASH FLOOD
REPORTS...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ENCINAL TO GEORGE WEST
TO VICTORIA.

SCC