Special Marine Warning 49, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1038 PM EDT THU AUG 23 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE WILL LIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT. A WARM MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A BIT OF A DILEMMA FOR NW OHIO. FIRST ROUND OF STORMS HAS SKIRTED
BY TO THE NORTH. THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS ARE NOT DUE UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT IN THE TOLEDO AREA. SEVERE THUNDERTORM WATCH 642 WILL
EXPIRE BEFORE THS STORMS ARRIVE. BEING AS THERE WILL BE NO
ACTIVITY BY 11 PM...HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE TSTORM BOX 642 FOR MY 4
COUNTIES IN NW OH. TSTORM COMPLEX ROLLING ACROSS NW INDIANA IS
WEAKENING BUT LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST JUST ENOUGH THAT
I AM NOT CONVINCED THAT THE STORMS WILL END. THE SEVERE ASPECT OF
THE STORMS WILL END BUT THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN IF TRAINING DEVELOPS AS THE LINE OF STORMS GETS STRUNG OUT
WEST TO EAST. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING ALL WEEK AND THERE IS A
BETTER LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT BUT LESS DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION SINCE
WE ARE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE NOW. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
RAIN. NONE OF THEIR SREF MEMBERS SHOW ANY SGNIFICANT RAIN GETTING
INTO NW OHIO. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED PREVIOUS EVENTS WELL THOUGH.
DO NOT ANTICPATE THE COPIUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WE SAW EARLIER IN THE
WEEK BUT WE CANNOT HANDLE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS NW OHIO.
THINK THE RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF BUCYRUS AND UPPER SANDUSKY BUT
MAY GET CLOSE TO FINDLAY. BETTER CHANCE FARTHER NORTH TOWARD
TOLEDO AND PORT CLINTON. WILL ISSUE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 PM
FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...THE SMATTERING OF STORMS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA IS
TAPERING OFF. RUC SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY PERSISTING
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN FCST. SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH FROM MOUNT
VERNON TO WOOSTER AND YTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENTIRE AREA REMAINS IN WARM MOIST AIRMASS UNTIL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MAV MOS GUIDANCE POPS LOW
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREA BELOW THRESHOLD OR SLIGHT
CHANCE TOMORROW. BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR
BOTH OF THE PERIODS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTM TOMORROW SHOULD COME
FROM ANY BOUNDARIES THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MCS PASSING
NORTH OF THE AREA. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A FEW
DAYS OF DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS APPEAR TOO FAST WITH THIS
FRONT. HPC MANUAL PROGS FOLLOWING SLOWER GFS ENSEMBLES MEAN AND
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MAIN COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD AT 50KTS...MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST AND AM EXPECTING
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN/THUNDER TO MOVE INTO MICHIGAN AND AVOID
OHIO. HAVE SEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANKING LINE
OVER THE PAST HOUR...WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AND MAY INCLUDE A BRIEF
TEMPO GROUP AT TOL FOR THUNDER BETWEEN 00Z-02Z BUT
OTHERWISE...THINK ALL TERMINALS WILL BE DRY THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTEND BACK TO CENTRAL IOWA. CORFIDI VECTORS
THROUGH 09Z INDICATE EASTWARD MOVEMENT AT 50KTS...IT IS THESE STORMS
THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAKING IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL INCLUDE TEMPOS FOR THUNDER AT TOL FDY AND MFD TOWARD 08Z-
10Z...VCSH FURTHER EAST AS THUNDER SHOULD TRY AND DIMINISH TOWARD
DAYBREAK. FOLLOWING THESE STORMS...SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL POP UP.

OUTLOOK SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS BY SUNDAY.
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING IN PLACES ALONG THIS FRONT AND THEREFORE THE CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.  WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE SSW
PICKING UP TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKES...INCREASING THE GRADIENT.

SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE.  SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ON SAT EAST HALF...BUT BY SUNDAY WIND/WAVES SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...LEINS
MARINE...OUDEMAN

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