Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 301959
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

OHC043-302015-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-070530T2015Z/
ERIE OH-
359 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT 
FOR ERIE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...

AT 350 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CASTALIA...OR ABOUT NEAR SANDUSKY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BAY
VIEW...SANDUSKY SOUTH AND FAIRVIEW LANES

LAT...LON 4148 8283 4148 8280 4145 8276 4147 8270
      4144 8263 4147 8268 4149 8268 4141 8257
      4129 8272 4129 8283 4129 8283 4142 8284
      4144 8289

$$
BM

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 302017
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
416 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

OHC043-302026-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-070530T2015Z/
ERIE OH-
416 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ERIE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL 
OHIO EXPIRED AT 415 PM EDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.

LAT...LON 4148 8283 4148 8280 4145 8276 4147 8270
      4144 8263 4147 8268 4149 8268 4141 8257
      4129 8272 4129 8283 4129 8283 4142 8284
      4144 8289

$$
BM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
247 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THRU FRIDAY WHILE MAINTAING A RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY.  ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOT MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED SINCE YDAY AT THIS TIME. FAIRLY WARM
AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER AREA THIS AFT. WE HAVEN/T MIXED OUT
QUITE AS MUCH AS WE DID YDAY SO WE ARE SEEING A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTION AS A RESULT. STORM IN SENECA COUNTY RECENTLY PRODUCED
PEA SIZE HAIL SO THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME INSTABILITY TODAY. MOST
OF CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVER SO ACTIVITY
SHOULD END TOWARD 00Z WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NEXT FEW HOURS THEN WILL BE W OF I-71 WITH
LAKE BREEZE OBVIOUSLY HELPING CLOSER TO LERI. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S AND CAN/T SEE ANY REASON WHY WE WILL
BE COOLER TONIGHT. SO...HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A LITTLE FROM GUID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM HI PRES OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. FAIRLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE UNDER THIS RIDGE. IN FACT...MOIST WILL SLOWLY INCREASE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. AS THIS HAPPENS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AFT
CONVECTION WITH BEST CHANCES BOTH THU AND FRI OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA. TOMORROW SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH TEMPS
APPROACHING 90 DEG ONCE AGAIN IN NW OH. TEMPS ELSEWHERE SIMILAR TO
TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ON FRI WITH SCT-BKN CU
DURING THE AFT. WILL BUMP UP POPS EVERYWHERE TO CHC ON FRI WITH
CHC WORDING ONLY WRN HALF TOMORROW. AGAIN...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECT QUIET WX AT NIGHT. JUST MINOR
TWEAKS TO GUID TEMPS. FOR MOST PART...NEW FORECAST WILL LOOK VERY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED SINCE YDAY AS UPPER TROFING SET TO OCCUR
OVER ERN CONUS DURING PERIOD.  CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO AREA.  AT THE SURFACE...GFS CONTS TO BE QUICKER THAN
OTHER LONG RANGE GUIDANCE.  ECMWF CONTS TO BE A NICE COMPROMISE
BETWEEN GFS AND OTHER EXTENDED GUID.  IT ALSO REMAINS MODEL OF
CHOICE FOR HPC SO IT/S SOLUTION WILL AGAIN BE FOLLOWED TODAY.  NEW
FORECAST WILL SOUND QUITE PESSIMISTIC WITH CHC POPS PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.  IN REALITY WILL LIKELY BE A PASSING STORM OR SHOWER
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH EXTENDED PERIODS OF DRY WX IN BETWEEN.  TEMPS
WILL COOL OFF DURING PERIOD AS COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE
THRU SUN AND THEN LINGER OVER REGION INTO MON.  ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD
FOLLOW ON TUE.  GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUDINESS GUID TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MON THRU WED
SEEMS REASONABLE.  WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT AS
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.   LI/S DURING AFT
WILL BE BETWEEN NEG 2 AND 4 WITH CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG SO BEST
CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS DURING PERIOD WILL BE LATE SAT INTO SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING MOISTURE IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT MVFR/VFR
VISIBILITIES IN HAZE ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY MOEV EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING.
ALSO THE INCREASED MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED A RATHER GOOD CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS AND ALONG
THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE. EXPECT THIS AREA TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PLACE VCTS IN KFDY AND VCSH IN AT
KCLE TO START TO COVER THREAT. THROUGH THE EVENING EXPECT HAZE TO
DECREASE WITH DECREASED HEATING ALTHOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S WILL BRING FOG/HAZE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT/TWRD DAWN WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT MORE
HAZE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY SO EXPECT MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE AROUND 5SM IN HZ 14-18Z THURS.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
NEED TO WATCH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH COULD
INITIATE/FOCUS TSTMS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INCREASED DIURNAL CONVECTION AS WELL. FOG/HAZE WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORECAST DURING THE EARLY MONRING HOURS GIVEN THE INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN CONTROLLER OF THE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL YIELD THE
STANDARD DIURNAL CYCLE OF WINDS TURNING ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY BUT TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN.
WINDS WILL EVER SO SLOWLY COME AROUND TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT IN THE VICINITY. A FEW POP UP
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARSHORE THU AND FRI WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
537 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-310945-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
537 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.