Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1048 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTHERN OHIO....ALLOWING FOR WARM
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SPARK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...COOLER DRIER AIR
WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST...UPDATE FOR JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE HIGHS OVER THE
WESTERN AREAS WITH NEAR 90 WORDING...OTHERWISE MID 80S TO NEAR 90
WILL BE THE RANGE FOR ENTIRE AREA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CLEVELAND ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND WAS MOVING
EAST. A LARGER AREA OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NORTHWEST OHIO ALSO
MOVING TO THE EAST. ADDTIONAL BOUNDARYS WILL MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. A DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THIS EVENING
AND WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN
TAPER BACK TO CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. SHOULD SEE A DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AIRMASS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW CURRENT READINGS.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY
MORNING...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY.  HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S. MAV TRIED TO BRING IN 90S AGAIN BY SATURDAY BUT THIS WAS
DISCOUNTED GIVEN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY WEEKEND.  MODELS
SHOW A COLD FRONT SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND HANGING
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...OTHERWISE PLAN IS TO KEEP POPS JUST UNDER
THE CRITICAL 15% LEVEL FOR MENTIONING ANY WEATHER.

STILL THINK MEX GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH ON SAT WITH AN EXPECTED MAINLY
NORTH WIND WITH ADDED LAKE BREEZE SO WILL TRIM BACK A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MCS OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. COULD GET JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG AS THEY MOVE EAST. LOOKS LIKE TOL...CLE AND ERI WL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS MORNING...BUT ANY SITE COULD
SEE STORMS THIS MORNING SINCE THE STORMS MAY BUILD SOUTH THIS
MORNING. ANY SITE COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORM THIS
MORNING.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT.
MAY HAVE SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN NAM SUGGEST MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
E-NE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE N-NW TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA. BIG CONCERN FOR MARINE INTERESTS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY INITIALLY BRING SOME
HIGHER WIND/WAVES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     018>023-033.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1221 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-101630-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-
1221 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.  RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LEZ142>149-162>169-101630-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
1221 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ089-PAZ001>003-101630-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
1221 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KUBINA