Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
248 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING.
THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST COUNTIES ALONG AND
EAST OF I-71.  THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
EVENING THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF WARNING AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 7PM.  I WILL MENTION
A LEFT OVER WEATHER GROUP FOR THIS EVENING BUT BRING A RAPID
DECREASE IN PCPN AFTER 7PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY AND THE DEVELOPMEMT OF A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT
FRIDAY.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.  THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO THURSDAY EVENING.
THE AMOUNT OF PCPN GENERATED BY THIS FRONT WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE.
THE SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND IS MOISTURE STARVED.  THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHC SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.  FOR
CONSISTENCY PURPOSES I WILL LEAVE THE PCPN IN THE FORECAST BUT I AM
NOT OPTIMISTIC WITH THE PCPN.  ON FRIDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE.  THE
ETA IS VERY QUICK WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVING IT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OHIO DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY.  THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM THAN THE
NAM BUT FASTER THAN THE GFS WAS ON THE 00Z RUN.  AFTER LOOKING AT
THE TIMING FROM THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...I BELIEVE THE NAM TO BE A
BIT FAST ON FRIDAY.  WITH THAT BEING SAID...I DO NOT WANT TO
COMPLETELY IGNORE IT SINCE THE TREND OF THE GFS IS TO SPEED UP.  I
WILL INTRODUCE A SLGT CHC PCPN FOR NW OH ON FRIDAY AND PCPN MOST
LOCATIONS A SOME POINT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE LONG TERM TRENDS.  MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND
THE SURFACE LOW.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE 12Z-18Z ON SATURDAY.  I WILL
INCREASE CURRENT POPS ON SATURDAY FROM SLGT CHC TO SCATTERED.  THE
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE TUESDAY.  MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE
LOW OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY.  THE ECMWF IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW AND DEVELOPS A 984 SURFACE LOW OVER CANADA BY 12Z TUES.  THE
ECMWF ALSO SWEEPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUES.
THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE GFS HAS A
1004MB LOW AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
UPPER LAKES.  THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MODELS.  THE GFS
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE REALISTIC IN THE SCENARIO.  I WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY BUT A THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINITY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT MOVG E ACRS OHIO THIS AFTN WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS LOCATED.
DUE TO THE INCREASED TSTMS ACTIVITY...I WILL PROBABLY PUT
IN TSTMS AT MOST TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN VFR WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

HI PRES DOMINATES MOST OF THE EXTENDED PD WEDNESDAY THRU SAT AND
SHUD RESULT IN VFR CONDS. MODELS SHOW PSBL WK LOW PRES SYS MOVG
THRU LATE FRI NITE OR SAT WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT JUST INTO THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT.  AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF LAKE TONIGHT WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST AND REACH BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THRU LAKE ERIE AREA FRI THRU SAT SO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WNDS THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
514 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-200915-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
514 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 71...ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

KOSARIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
307 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEADVILLE               41.65N 80.15W
06/19/2007                   CRAWFORD           PA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE BETWEEN
            COCHRANTON...MEADVILLE...AND SPARTANSBURG.

0253 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MENTOR                  41.69N 81.33W
06/19/2007                   LAKE               OH   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TWO LARGE TREES DOWN.

&&

ASTIFAN