Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 172348
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

OHC101-180000-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-070618T0000Z/
MARION OH-
748 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR MARION COUNTY...

AT 742 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CALEDONIA...OR ABOUT NEAR MARION...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4068 8339 4051 8341 4046 8303 4070 8287

$$

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 172357
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
757 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

OHC101-180007-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0119.000000T0000Z-070618T0000Z/
MARION OH-
757 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MARION COUNTY EXPIRES AT 800
PM EDT...

LAT...LON 4068 8339 4051 8341 4046 8303 4070 8287

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
246 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OVER EXTREME NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AND STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE FRONT
WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON A FRONT AND THE LOW
WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAKE BREEZE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO AT
MID-AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS ESPECIALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE
LAKESHORE. AT THIS TIME WILL FORECAST A 20 POP SOUTH OF THE LAKE
FOR THIS EVENING...CUMULUS NOT TOO EXCITING LOOKING AT THIS TIME.
THE BEST ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. MAV MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD WITH
THE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. FOR LATE TONIGHT SOME CONCERN
WITH THE FRONT STALLING AND THEN COMING BACK AS A WARM FRONT THAT
THE WESTERN COUNTIES COULD HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION AS PER THE NAM
AND SOMEWHAT THE GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST A 30 POP IS LOW. SOME OF THE BEST AFTERNOON
MOISTURE IS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE ZONES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C...NO LAKES BREEZE IS
EXPECTED AS THE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME A
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THUS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY IS INTERESTING...THE GFS TRYING TO
SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. THE SHORT WAVE AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ARENT LINED UP...THIS MAY KEEP THE ACTIVITY DOWN A
LITTLE...HOWEVER...WILL STILL FORECAST A LIKELY POP. TIMING IS
TOUGH WHETHER THE BEST CHANCE IS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH QUESTIONS
ABOUT THE TIMING WONT PUT ANY IN AT THIS TIME EXCEPT IN THE
EXTREME EAST WHERE CONFIDENCE IS BEST. THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
OK...CAPE OVER 1000 AND SHEAR WILL BE FAIR. NO MENTION IN ZONES YET.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TOUGH FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MAV MAY BE TOO COOL
ESPECIALLY AT PLACES THAT STAY DRY. HIGHS TOUGH ON TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...WENT CLOSER TO MAV.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES WILL HANG UNTO THE
PRECIPITATION INTO THE EVENING. GFS HAS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE LATE
TUEDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH A 30 POP EXTREME NORTHEAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT FOG EXPECTED SINCE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 MPH MOST OF
THE NIGHT AND THE AIRMASS WILL BE SLOWLY DRYING OUT. OTHERWISE
GFS/DIGEX/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS AGREE IN MOVING IN
ANOTHER FRONT FOR THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER KENTUCKY.
AFTER THAT THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE MOVING IN
FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF AND
DIGEX KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA AS DOES HPC. AT THIS TIME
WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DRY AND INTRODUCE A 20 POP FOR
SUNDAY AS WAVE MAY MAKE IT UP INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST TODAY AS COLD FRONT CONTS TO SAG ACROSS
AREA. CURRENTLY NOT MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION OCCURRING AND BIG
QUESTIONS IS WHETHER THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. STARTING TO SEE SUM CU DEVELOP WRN AREAS. INSTABILITY IN THIS
AREA PRETTY GOOD RIGHT NOW WITH LI/S WELL BELOW ZERO.
UNFORTUNATELY...TIMING AND COVERAGE PRETTY TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN
SO WILL USE A COMBINATION OF VCTS AND CB MENTION TO COVER ACTIVITY
THIS AFT. KERI AND KYNG WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN DRY. AFT 00Z JUST
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME HI CLOUDINESS. SLY FLOW WILL PICK UP TOWARD
END OF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FORECAST AREA. VFR WED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE. CHANCE OF TSRA THU WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT NOW S OF THE LAKE WITH FLOW PRETTY MUCH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRONT WILL COME BACK N AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK.  FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
DURING THE DAY ON MON WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS.  COLD FRONT STILL SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUE WITH
STRONG STORMS LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  THERE WILL BE A
PRETTY GOOD PUNCH OF COLD AIR BEHIND FRONT SO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR A WHILE DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
COULD BE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT ON THU...OTHERWISE THE WEATHER THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUIET.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1149 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-181600-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
1149 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE THREAT
WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
508 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             7 E MANSFIELD           40.76N 82.39W
06/17/2007  E0.75 INCH       RICHLAND           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0455 PM     HAIL             MIFFLIN                 40.77N 82.36W
06/17/2007  E0.88 INCH       ASHLAND            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

OUDEMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
658 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLMESVILLE             40.63N 81.92W
06/17/2007                   HOLMES             OH   PUBLIC

            A FEW LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

0609 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CENTERBURG              40.30N 82.70W
06/17/2007                   KNOX               OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

KIELTYKA