Marine Weather Statement 9, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
300 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HI PRES OVER THE SERN STATES WITH A RDG INTO THE OH VLY WL WEAKEN TO
ALLOW A CDFNT OVR THE UPR MIDWEST TO MOV SE THRU OUR AREA THU. HI
PRES OVR MN LATE THU WL MOV OVER LERI SAT AND SUN THEN MOV E ON MON
AS A WEAK CDFNT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES SHUD MOV S ACRS THE REGION
LATE MON INTO WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AIRMASS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTN AS MID AND UPR HEIGHTS
SLOWLY FALL. CDFNT MOVG ACROSS LERI BY 12Z WL CONT TO AID IN POOLING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  PWS ARND 1.75 IN WHICH SHUD BE GOOD
FOR LOCALLY HVY RA BUT GROUND RELATIVELY DRY MOST OF AREA SO ANY
FLOOD PROBS WOULD BE VERY LOCALIZED AND FEW IN NUMBER SO NO FLOOD
WATCH SEEMS NEEDED. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE EARLY TNGT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE AS WND SHEAR NOT MEETING CRITERIA. PLAN TO GENERALLY CONT
WITH LIKELY POPS TNGT AS MODELS NOT CHANGING MUCH ON LATEST RUN
VERSUS PREVIOUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT WL CONT THRU REST OF AREA THU TAKING PRECIP THREAT INTO SRN
PART OF AREA BY THU EVE. MID AND UPR FLOW BECOMING WNW BY THU EVE SO
THINK PRECIP SHUD BE S OF CWA BY THEN BUT WL PROB STILL CARRY A SML
CHC SRN PART OF AREA INTO EARLY THU NITE TO BETTER SMOOTH WITH
COORD. DRIER PUSH OF AIR WITH THE HI PRES SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE
AREA SHUD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY FRI AND FRI NITE.

WL CUT GUIDANCE POPS SOME IN THE FAR N ON THU AS THINKING THAT POOR
FRONTAL TIMING FOR CONVECTION WL PUT FRONT IN NRN AREAS DURG MORN
CONVECTIVE MINIMA WITH ACTIVITY PICKING UP IN THE AFTN WHEN FRONT IS
INTO SRN HALF OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HI PRES MOVG E ACROSS AREA FRI THRU SUN NITE WL PROVIDE DRY AND
MSTLY SUNNY WX WITH COOLER TEMPS.  06Z GFS LOOKS TO BE A BIT FAST
AND STRONG WITH FIRST LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING TO NEAR LERI BY LATE
MON SO WL PROB KP MON DRY AS WELL THEN CARRY SLGT CHC/CHC FOR
SHRA/TSRA TUE AND WED RESPECTIVELY AS CDFNT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES
MAY BE SOMEWHERE AROUND OUR AREA.  WARMING TREND TUE AND WED WITH
READINGS AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN OHIO MOVG E. SCT TSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
WAVE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY YNG AND CAK THIS
AFTRN. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS OVR SE LWR MI DEVELOPING SWRD INTO
INDIANA ASSOCD WITH TROUGH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS AREA TO THE
WEST WILL FILL IN AND LIKELY AFFECT TOLEDO LATE AFTRN. HOW FAR THESE
WESTERN STORMS MAKE IT TNGT IS PROBLEMATIC WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL ASSUME THAT THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TNGT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR A FEW HOURS OF STEADY OVERUNNING RAIN WITH
MVFR CIELINGS/VSBY MAY WELL OCCUR WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKESHORE. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EXPECT VFR CONDTIONS WITH UNSEASONABLE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.  SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVES SHOULD NOT REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...LOMBARDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
547 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-281000-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
547 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THOUGH MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.