Heavy Snow Warning 1, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007

.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...
PCPN CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. MVFR CIGS NOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE PCPN. LOWER CIGS
SHOULD EXPAND N AND W TODAY...ALONG WITH THE PCPN. DIFFERERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM WITH REGARD TO THE QPF...BUT THE THINKING IS
THAT THE DRIER GFS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG EASTERLY WIND
COMPONENT HELPING TO DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS AND DIMINISHING PCPN.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE...IT WILL TAKE FAIRLY STRONG
UPWARD MOTION TO BEGIN THE SNOW...BUT ONCE IT DOES START CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH WITH MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-71
DROPPING TO IFR OR PERHAPS LIFR AT YNG AND/OR ERI. EXPECT PCPN TO
START AT YNG AND CAK AROUND 15Z AND CLE/MFD/ERI AROUND 17Z. HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL ALSO BE OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE 6 INCHES MAY FALL BY SAT
MORNING. AT CLE AND MFD GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES TODAY. TOL AND FDY WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE BEST MOISTURE...SO ANY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE ACCUMUALATION AND MVFR TYPE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
FOLLOWED THE EVOLUTION OF THE GFS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  MODELS
SHOW A DEEPENING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEXT
48 HOURS.  THIS WILL PHASE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW AND BRING
SNOW TO THE AREA PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  HEADLINES
WILL REACH UP TO OUR EASTERN BORDER BUT FOR NOW WILL LET THAT BE THE
EXTENT ALTHOUGH WE COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES.  AS ALWAYS...WITH THESE COASTAL LOWS...A TRACK
SLIGHTLY WEST OF FORECAST COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE ACROSS NERN OH
AND NWRN PA. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE SNOW TOTALS A BIT AND LET THE DAY
CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.

FOR TODAY THE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE VIRGINIA COAST.
GFS SHOWS MOISTURE BEING PULLED BACK WEST INTO THE AREA ALTHOUGH
INITIALLY LOW LEVEL DRY INFLOW WILL BE A PROBLEM.  WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING EAST BUT MOST PRECIP WILL FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO LONG ISLAND
BY SAT 12Z.  GFS STILL KEEPS MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA BUT DYNAMICS HAVE LIFTED OUT OF THE AREA AND BY 12Z GFS
SHOWS SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. STILL CONCERNED HOWEVER WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.  TEMPERATURES REALLY
MARGINAL WITH -12 TO -14C AT 850MB AND ONLY A PARTIALLY OPEN LAKE
BUT SHOULD BE GOOD FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  SNOW
TOTALS TODAY WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
AND WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY WEST. WILL GO WITH UP TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM(SUNDAY THRU THU)...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST. LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROF EXITING THE EAST EARLY IN PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BRINGS WEAK RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES GO FROM BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY TO MOST OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAVING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL UNTIL END OF
PERIOD WHEN SW FLOW PUSHES TEMPERATURES ABOVE.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY WITH WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  CARRIED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THEN FAIR AND MILD THURSDAY BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...WCR
AVIATION...MRD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
645 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007

OHZ003-006>013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047-171045-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-
ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
645 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ142>149-162>169-171045-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-THE-
LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
645 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ014-023-033-089-PAZ001>003-171045-
ASHTABULA INLAND-TRUMBULL-MAHONING-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
645 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...A TOTAL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.