Heat Advisory 1, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY LIFTING A FRONT STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT CLEAR TO ME EXACTLY HOW THE DAY WILL EVOLVE. NONE OF THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE DOING A VERY GOOD JOB AT CAPTURING CURRENT CONVECTION
ACROSS MICHIGAN/NW PA. MOST MODELS SIMPLY SHOW UVV/STORMS MOVG
EAST INTO ONTARIO AND NEW YORK STATE. I HAVE A FEELING THE EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS N CENTRAL AND
NE OH AND EVENTUALLY INTO NW PA...ESPECIALLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTRN AS ALL MODELS SHOW THE INSTABILITY INCREASING RAPIDLY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. TO MAKE MATTERS MORE INTERESTING...DEEP SHEAR
AND NICE CAPE (>2000 J/KG) PROGGED ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA THIS
AFTRN WITH A NICE LOOKING HODOGRAPH AT ERIE. PCP WATER PROGGED AS
HIGH AS 2.3 INCHES. WITH APPROACHING WAVE AND MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALREADY IN PLACE WILL MENTION SEVERE STORMS ALL BUT
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (MT GILEAD TO FINDLAY TO BOWLING GREEN).
SPEAKING OF WHICH WILL NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SAME SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES AS HEAT INDEX WILL REACH CRITERIA (100-104F) THIS
AFTRN/EVENING. TOUGH FCST ALSO AT TOLEDO WHERE EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST...WILL NEW ACTIVITY DEVELOP TO THE NW
AND COME CRASHING INTO NW OHIO OR WILL IT JUST BE HOT AND STEAMY
THIS AFTRN? WILL LEAVE CHANCE POP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF BOWLING GREEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEPENDING ON HOW THE STORMS EVOLVE THIS AFTRN THE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING DURING THE EVENING HOURS INTO TONIGHT...
MOVG SOUTHEAST BY THAT TIME AS THE WAVE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BEGIN TO MOVE BY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS NE OH/NW PA EARLY
TONIGHT...THEN GENERALLY A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY LATER
TNGT ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH. CANNOT RULE
OUT A LEFT OVER SHOWER INLAND NE OH/NW PA WED MORN BUT ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BECOME MUCH MORE STABLE WITH SOME DRYING ON WEDNESDAY SO
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY. YET ANOTHER WAVE PROGGED
FOR THURSDAY SO WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO GO THROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS SIMILAR TO TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
BY FRIDAY...AGAIN THE TIMING VARIES WITH THE MODELS. LOW MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST AND STALLS SATURDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOULD SEE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR STEADILY FILTER SOUTHWARD. MODELS HINT AT SOME SORT OF
SECONDARY FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT NOT GOING TO TRY AND
GRASP AT ANY PCPN IN GTHE FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN MI EAST INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. WEAK TROUGH/WARM FRONT IN SFC PRESS FIELD EXTENDS FROM
TOL TO MFD. ALOFT MILD RIDGING SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
WOULD MOVE AROUND ITS PERIPHERY FROM THEIR SOURCE REGION IN THE
ORD/IOWA AREA EAST IN AN ARC TO THE EASTERN LAKES. TYPICALLY WITH
NOCTURNAL NATURE OF THESE COMPLEXES...THE WOULD WEAKEN FROM THEIR
CURRENT STATE BY THE TIME IT WOULD REACH HERE. UNFORTUNATELY
MODELS DOING EXTREMELY POORLY WITH EVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS TO OUR
WEST AND EACH HAVE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION. REALLY A TOUGH CALL THIS
MORNING.

AGAIN ANOTHER MORNING WITH A LOT OF HZ. THIS MORNING MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE MVFR HZ THAN IFR WITH DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD.
OF COURSE CLEAR PATCHES MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPORARY DIPS. TOL/FDY MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DISSIPATING AREA OF
RAIN. SO BEYOND ABOUT THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS...MANY QUESTIONS ARISE.
FOR NOW WENT WITH VCSH WITH CB MENTIONED FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT MOVES EAST WOULD FIGURE THE
BEST ACTIVITY WOULD BE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT PUSHING ENE
ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN LATER WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD AGAIN SO THREAT OF SHRA/TS ACTIVITY MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. OF COURSE OF WE GET LEFTOVER RAIN FROM
A COMPLEX OUT WEST DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THAN
THAT MAY PRECLUDE SOME ADDITIONAL TS DEVELOPMENT.

OUTLOOK...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING
BRIEF END TO THREAT OF TSTMS WEDNESDAY WHEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. HOWEVER FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH INTO AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY RETURNING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
FOR GOOD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE
ERIE. FOR MUCH OF TODAY THE FLOW WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...BUT A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION.
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE. AFTER THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES THE FRONT
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER SIMILAR ROUND OF WEATHER WITH THE FRONT OSCILLATING BACK
NORTH FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY BE OUT OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ006-017-027-036-037.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB/KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN

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