Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
355 PM EST THU MAR 01 2007

...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...ONGOING PRECIPITATION HAS HELD THE WARM
SECTOR MAINLY W/SW OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE WARM SECTOR
SURGING NORTH THROUGH MS/AL/NW FL BUT MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS
TOWARD THE E/NE. THUS...CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ELEVATED AND
SUB-SEVERE ACROSS THE REGION. A MORE RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY HAD NUDGED INTO IMMEDIATE COASTAL GA/SC
COUNTIES...AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO NE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR INTENSIFICATION AND ASSOCIATED ROTATION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...STRONGER UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AS THEY CROSS THE WARM FRONT AND BECOME ELEVATED ACROSS
GA COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...TO POSSIBLY INCLUDE DAMAGING
WIND...STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...WILL AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN WARM SECTOR...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...DURING THE 9 PM TO
6 AM TIME FRAME. IF THE PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT IS DELAYED
FURTHER...THE WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MAY BEGIN LATER
NARROW FURTHER. OTHERWISE...CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN ORDER THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT
IMPACTING THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN STALL OUT OFF THE SC/GA COAST FRI AFTERNOON.
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI AFTERNOON...EXPECT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HOLDING THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FAR ENOUGH OFF THE SC/GA COAST TO PREVENT ANY SHOWERS FROM AFFECTING
THE AREA.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SFC WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
SC/GA COAST. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SC/GA COAST SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON. WILL
MENTION SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS BOTH SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND PASSAGE OF SECONDARY RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KICK THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
SUN AFTERNOON...AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT AND
MON...AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE SE
CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN A RAIN FREE FORECAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS IN THE HWO BOTH SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...UPGRADED REMAINING SCAS TO GALE WARNINGS FOR
AMZ352-354...FROM 7 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY...AS 950-850 MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS. EVEN WITH THE STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER...GALE FORCE GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z-18Z/...
ONGOING TAFS WILL CONTINUE DEPICT FEATURING SHOWERS AND A GENERAL
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
DETERIORATION TO AT LEAST PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
CONTINUING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE TIMING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS...AS
WELL AS TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AROUND THE TIME OF SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
APPEARS LIKELY AT BOTH TERMINALS.
&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...WILL ISSUE A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS BEACH EROSION CONCERNS.
&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH SURFACE ADVISORY...TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
      GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
      SCZ040-042>045-047>051.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY...TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...SCZ048>050.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY
      FOR AMZ350-352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AMZ330.
&&

SPR/JRJ

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

GAZ118-119-SCZ048-051-012130-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL JASPER-INLAND CHATHAM-
404 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BEAUFORT COUNTY...CHATHAM COUNTY
AND JASPER COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM EST...

AT 400 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OF 35
TO 45 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
LEVY TO LYNHURST...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SAVANNAH TO SAVANNAH...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND FOREST BEACH...HILTON HEAD ISLAND...ISLE OF
HOPE...RIVERSIDE...SANDFLY...SAVANNAH...THUNDERBOLT...VERNONBURG...
WHITE BLUFF...WILMINGTON ISLAND AND WINDSOR FOREST WILL BE IMPACTED
THROUGH 430 PM EST.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN
EMERGENCY.

VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO OCCUR RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING OF
ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER.

33

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
428 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

GAZ119-SCZ048-051-012200-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL JASPER-
428 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BEAUFORT COUNTY...CHATHAM COUNTY
AND JASPER COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EST...

AT 425 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OF 35
TO 45 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
BLUFFTON TO SKIDAWAY ISLAND...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HILTON
HEAD ISLAND TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF SAVANNAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND BLUFFTON...FOLLY FIELD...FOREST BEACH...HILTON
HEAD ISLAND...PARRIS ISLAND...PORT ROYAL...SKIDAWAY ISLAND AND
WILMINGTON ISLAND WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 500 PM EST.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH
MAY FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. AVOID FLOOD PRONE
AREAS AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
459 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

GAZ119-SCZ048-051-012230-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL JASPER-
459 PM EST THU MAR 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BEAUFORT COUNTY...CHATHAM COUNTY
AND JASPER COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM EST...

AT 458 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1/2 INCH HAIL...AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FROGMORE TO GOLDEN ISLES...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND TO 10 MILES EAST OF
SAVANNAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND FOLLY FIELD...FOREST BEACH...HILTON HEAD ISLAND
AND WILMINGTON ISLAND WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 530 PM EST.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE
TORNADOES SUDDENLY...SOMETIMES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. BE ALERT
FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH
MAY FLOOD ROADS...DITCHES AND LOW-LYING AREAS. AVOID FLOOD PRONE
AREAS AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO PLACES WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER.

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