Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
305 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND...AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466...IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING. WILL
ISSUE FULL PACKAGE AFD SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA ON SUN. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SOUTHEAST GA MON AND MON NIGHT.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SHEARED OUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING OFF THE COAST BY 00Z SUN...SO EXPECT THAT
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND END SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. WITH PROXIMITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES PUSHING TOWARD THE
REGION...WILL CARRY SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA ON SUN...AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH SEA BREEZE AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION...EXPECT DECENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN.
BOTH GA AND SC WILL GET IN ON THE ACTION SUN...AND WILL CARRY
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...EXPECT THAT THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT...AND WILL CARRY CHC
POPS IN THE EVENING...THEN TAPER TO SLGT CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
DRYER AIRMASS BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A GOOD SURGE OF LOWER DEWPOINT AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MON...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS GA ZONES. WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS DOWN
ALONG THE ALTAMAHA...WITH A DRY FORECAST ACROSS SC ZONES. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES MON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS MON NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT/LOW CHC POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
TUE WHILE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY TUE SLIDES EAST...AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA WED INTO
THU ALLOWING FOR A DRY MIDWEEK FCST.

A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWFA THU FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH WILL FORCE THE
INCLUSION OF SLGT/LOW CHC POPS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. GIVEN
THE MODEL/S QUICK PROGRESSION OF FRONTS RECENTLY...WILL NEED MORE
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA
OR IF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. OF
COURSE...IN ADDITION TO FRONTAL FORCING...DIURNAL SEABREEZE MAY BE A
PLAYER IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE AND
WED...THEN REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP IN/NEAR THE TERMINALS. MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT
BEST RISK OF TSTMS ARE N-NW OF KCHS. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A
MODEST CHC THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT THROUGH
21Z. HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FOR -SHRA. CONVECTIVE
RISK AT KSAV STILL APPEARS SLIGHTLY LESS...BUT ALSO CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING THE AIRPORT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SUN
AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY
MON THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
RECENT BUOY OBS HAVE SHOWN WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE SOUTHERLY SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 4 FEET SO
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS
THROUGH TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS...WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK TODAY. ENHANCED RISK
RETURNS EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASING WAVE FETCH
AND A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>051.
MARINE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     AMZ330-350-352-354.

&&

JPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
253 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>051-010000-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
253 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE.
THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

RIP CURRENTS...THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG SOME AREA BEACHES MONDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AMZ330-350-352-354-010000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
253 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AMZ374-010000-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
253 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS AND POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS...MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
247 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

SCZ040-042-301930-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-
247 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALLENDALE COUNTY AND HAMPTON
COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1/2 INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SYCAMORE...OR
ABOUT OVER ALLENDALE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

AREAS IN AND AROUND ALLENDALE...APPLETON...BRUNSON...FAIRFAX...
MILEY...SEIGLING...SYCAMORE AND ULMER WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 330 PM
EDT.

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. POSTPONE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES PROMPTLY. GO QUICKLY INSIDE A COMPLETELY ENCLOSED
BUILDING.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER.