Frost Advisory 5, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
321 AM EST WED NOV 7 2007

...WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING THIS MRNG IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CSRA AND E-CENTRAL GA HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LWR-MID 30S PER A NUMBER OF MESONET OBSERVATIONS
IN THAT AREA. THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FREEZING LINE INDICATES
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH AT LEAST THE NRN PORTIONS
OF ALLENDALE...SCREVEN AND JENKINS COUNTIES BEFORE SUNRISE...THUS
THE FREEZE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS
DESPITE FULL INSOLATION. LOW-LVL THICKNESSES AND H8 TEMPS NEAR 0C
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 57-60 DEGREE RANGE WHICH IS WELL HANDLED BY
THE GOING GRID SET. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD THIS
MRNG WITH INTENSE CAA ONGOING BUT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THIS AFTN
AS CAA WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLDEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS FALL WILL IMPACT MUCH OF SRN SC
AND SE GA TONIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET
RESULTING IN A NEARLY PERFECT RADIATIONAL REGIME WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND LOW DEWPTS. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY
THAT INLAND AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A FREEZE OF SUFFICIENT DURATION
TO END THE GROWING SEASON IN MANY LOCATIONS. AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG
AND N OF A METTER-CLAXTON-PEMBROKE-RIDGELAND-RITTER-SUMMERVILLE-
SHULERVILLE LINE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A FREEZE. THE
FREEZE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING AND EXPANDED
SOUTH TO INCLUDE PARTS OF EVANS-LIBERTY AND BRYAN COUNTIES TO
COVER THE RADIATIONAL INFLUENCES OF THE LARGE OPEN AREAS ON FORT
STEWART. A FROST ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE ISSUED FOR TATTNALL-LONG-
INLAND CHATHAM AND THE REMAINING SC COASTAL ZONES. ALTHOUGH DEWPTS
WILL INITIALLY BE LOW...SLOW MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET.
LOCAL FROST ALGORITHM INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD FROST INLAND...BECOMING PATCHY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
NEITHER A FROST OR A FREEZE IS EXPECTED AT THIS COAST TONIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT A BAND OF THIN CIRRUS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 90 KT JET AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS BAND COULD DISRUPT THE RADIATIVE PROCESS SHOULD IT
BECOME THICKER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED TODAY.

COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH
LOW-LVL THICKNESSES RISING JUST A FEW METERS. THU NIGHT WILL OFFER
ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS WITH LOWS RANGING
NEAR FREEZING INLAND WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. FREEZE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY NOT BE NEEDED FOR INLAND AREAS DEPENDING
ON WHAT TRANSPIRES WITH THE TONIGHT/S FREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCNL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT WITH DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT WE WILL MAINTAIN A RAINFREE
FCST. THIS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COOL
FRONT TO CROSS THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH WEDGE TYPE AREA OF
HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT HIGH WILL SHIFT E
INTO THE ATLC ON TUESDAY AS MID AND UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ATOP THE
CWFA. DEPENDING UPON ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...A COASTAL
TROUGH LOOKS TO FORM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE ATLC WATERS DURING THAT TIME. THE
NEXT COOL FRONT MAY THEN APPROACH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COOL
FRONT...WITH SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED...BEFORE RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLC DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A FURTHER INCREASE IN TEMPS AS DAYTIME HIGHS REACH
ABOVE 70 AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL BE THEIR
COLDEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
FROST FRIDAY NIGHT WELL INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT 25-30
KNOT WINDS WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SURFACE TO PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...
WITH LITTLE/NO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...TO PREVENT ANY MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SOLIDLY WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THIS MRNG WITH INTENSE CAA ONGOING. HAVE SEEN A FEW GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE AT THE ELEVATED SABSOON TOWERS...BUT THE GUSTS HAVE BEEN
INFREQUENT. PLAN TO STICK WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS AFTN
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS CAA SLOWLY WANES. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 6 FT ACROSS THE GA OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE VARIOUS ADVISORY ENDING TIMES LOOK ON
TRACK.

HIGH PRES ALONG THE ERN COAST OF THE NATION WILL SPLIT INTO TWO HIGH
CENTERS ON FRIDAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A WEAK COOL FRONT SATURDAY.
STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD FROM THE N FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SOME PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT DURING THAT TIME.

PRES FIELDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE EFFECTS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY W OR NW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AT NO MORE THAN 10 OR 15 KT.
DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE PINCHING...WINDS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 15 OR 20 KT BY SUNDAY.

OFFSHORE FETCH WILL LIMIT THE HEIGHT OF THE SEAS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AT NO HIGHER THAN 4 OR PERHAPS 5 FT /HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GA WATERS/. SEAS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE
FAVORABLE N-NE FETCH...ESP ON THE GA WATERS.

LAKE WINDS...IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW HIGH THE
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE OPEN LAKE WATERS THIS MRNG. OBSERVATIONS
OUT OF PINEVILLE ARE INCONCLUSIVE SINCE THE SENOR HAS A KNOWN LOW
BIAS ON N WINDS. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON SENSOR
ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AND ARE LIKELY MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT
IS OCCURRING ON LAKE MOULTRIE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS MRNG
BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN FOR SPEEDS TO
DROP BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY
THROUGH 4 PM TO COVER THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTN
AND AGAIN THU. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN CHECK SO RED FLAG WARNING NOR
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE NEEDED. WILL MAINTAIN ALL HEADLINES FOR
CRITICAL RH/S IN THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-115-116-138.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     GAZ114-118-137.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     SCZ048>051.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-
     350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

ST/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
912 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007

GAZ099>101-SCZ042>044-047-071000-
CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-
INLAND JASPER-
912 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WATCH.

FROST/FREEZE...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO CRITICAL
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR CRITICAL ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ114>119-137>141-SCZ048>051-071000-
TATTNALL-EVANS-INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-
COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
COASTAL MCINTOSH-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
912 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FROST/FREEZE...SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON
WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...PATCHY
TO SCATTERED FROST IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FROST ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO CRITICAL
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR CRITICAL ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ045-071000-
BERKELEY-
912 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   FREEZE WATCH.

FROST/FREEZE...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO CRITICAL
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR CRITICAL THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ087-088-SCZ040-071000-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-ALLENDALE-
912 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.
   FREEZE WATCH.

FROST/FREEZE...FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO CRITICAL
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR CRITICAL THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-071000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
912 PM EST TUE NOV 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.