Excessive Heat Warning 4, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE STATES
THROUGH FRI...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC PERSISTS
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SC AND GA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE N SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RETURNING FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVE WITH
THE REGION CAUGHT IN THE MIDST OF A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE. THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS AL/TN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND
RETROGRADE TO THE W TONIGHT AS UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVE
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING
OVERNIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...CAN HANDLE THIS WITH
NOWCASTS AS NEEDED.

THERE WILL BE NO RESPITE FROM THE HEAT TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 70S WELL INLAND WITH LOWER TO MID 80S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT WL REMAIN EXCESSIVELY HUMID AND HAZY WITH
HEAT INDICES ALONG THE BEACHES LIKELY NOT DROPPING BELOW 100
DEGREES...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE INTO THE
SRN PLAINS BY FRI AFTN AS TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS THE NE STATES.
DESPITE LESS SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE...COMPRESSION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES RATHER HIGH
AND THUS HIGH TEMPS AS WELL. WILL BUMP UP HIGHS A TAD...WITH LOWER
100S WELL INLAND AND MID 90S NEAR THE COAST...SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS. WILL KEEP POPS AT 20 PERCENT ATTM SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING OUTSIDE OF THE LEE-SIDE TROF INLAND AND
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. WITH DEWPOINTS CHANGING LITTLE ON
FRI...WILL STILL SEE HEAT INDICES AROUND 115 DEG SO WILL UPGRADE
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALL AREAS. THANKS
ILM/CAE/FFC/JAX FOR THE COORDINATION.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ MAY MOVE
MOVE ACROSS ERN NC AND NE SC FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE N AND W. THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE NRN ZONES
WELL AFT MIDNIGHT AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF STREAM.
TOUGH TO SAY HOW FAR S THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF
SLGT CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR SC ZONES TO COVER
FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING OUT AND DISSIPATING TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY EVENING IN GEORGIA. BASED ON MOST RECENT MODEL FORECAST
GUIDANCE...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ON
SATURDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...TWEAKED THE DEWPOINTS
UP SLIGHTLY MOST PERIODS. UNFORTUNATELY IT APPEARS VERY LIKELY
THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE AREA. IT ALSO APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTER SUNDAY EVENING...THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE QUITE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS RESULTING IN PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN/EVE...BUT CHANCES
ARE TOO SMALL ATTM TO MENTION WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HAZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SAT...WITH PRIMARILY
MVFR VSBY/S EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR VSBY/S ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK AND WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION BOTH FRI AND
SAT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUE...WITH A
CHANCE OF SEEING VSBY/S DROP TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
FRI BUT WITH A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY FRI. MAY EVEN NEED AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR CHS
HARBOR. CONDITIONS WORSEN EVEN MORE FRI NIGHT AS NOCTURNAL SURGING
MAY KICK WINDS INTO THE SCA RANGE FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE WATERS.

SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON SATURDAY
EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT AND DISSIPATING SOUTH
OF THE WATERS. NOCTURNAL WIND SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN
DURING SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS.
DECREASING SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...AFTER WHICH SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND HIGH MINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED TODAY.
CHARLESTON HAS ALREADY REACHED 97 DEGREES...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF 96 DEGREES. MORE RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRI.

RECORD HIGHS
                        THU       FRI
CHARLESTON AIRPORT    96/1972   99/1997
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON   95/1951   95/1954
SAVANNAH AIRPORT      99/1986   98/1896

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS
                        THU       FRI
CHARLESTON AIRPORT    79/1941   79/1937
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON   81/1998   80/1987
SAVANNAH AIRPORT      80/1987   76/1991

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-
     088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>051.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ040-042>045-047>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

RJB/MTE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
240 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

SCZ044-045-091930-
BERKELEY-DORCHESTER-
240 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BERKELEY COUNTY AND DORCHESTER
COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW HOPE...OR ABOUT
OVER SUMMERVILLE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

AREAS IN AND AROUND COLLEGE PARK...JEDBURG...KNIGHTSVILLE...SANGAREE
AND SUMMERVILLE WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 330 PM EDT.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN
EMERGENCY.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
330 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

SCZ044-045-092015-
BERKELEY-DORCHESTER-
330 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BERKELEY COUNTY AND DORCHESTER
COUNTY THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BROWNSVILLE...OR ABOUT
OVER SUMMERVILLE...AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

AREAS IN AND AROUND JEDBURG...NEW HOPE...SANGAREE AND SUMMERVILLE
WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 415 PM EDT.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS. IF INDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN
EMERGENCY.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE
AT 1-888-383-2024 IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER.