Coastal Flood Statement 20, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE W WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HELP GUIDE TROPICAL STORM NOEL FROM THE NW
BAHAMAS FURTHER NE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRI THROUGH MON...THEN IT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TUE...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM NOEL CONTINUES
TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...PRIMARILY CHARLESTON COUNTY. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ARE EVIDENT
ON RADAR STRETCHING THROUGH CHARLESTON COUNTY AND ARE LIKELY NO MORE
THAN SPRINKLES. MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN FOR TONIGHT REVOLVE AROUND
WINDS AND MARINE ISSUES.

THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...TROPICAL STORM NOEL
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST AND WELL
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO PINCH PRETTY GOOD TONIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND
EXPECT IT TO GET A BIT BREEZY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CURRENTLY AFFECTING CHARLESTON COUNTY SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND WITH LOW LEVEL
STEERING FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND TROPICAL STORM NOEL CONTINUING TO PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. LOW LEVEL
STEERING FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY...SO A DRY FORECAST
CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO
WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN LINE WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH
MON AFTN...KEEPING SKIES MOCLR TO CLEAR. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE NW. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.
H85 TEMPS DROP TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 30S FOR MUCH OF THE INLAND PORTION OF THE
CWFA...AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST AREAS OF
FROST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MAX TEMPS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 70 SAT
TO THE MID 70S TUE...THEN DROP TO THE MID 60S WED-THU. MIN TEMPS FRI
NIGHT-SAT NIGHT WILL DROP TO THE UPR 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 40S
NEAR THE COAST...THEN MINS RISE THROUGH THE 40S SUN NIGHT TO TUE
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER LOW TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TROPICAL STORM NOEL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WELL
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHEAR
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FROM 06Z FRI TO 14Z FRI...BUT AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS TO MARGINAL TO MENTION IN TAFS. GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY MORNING...AND WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 1 TO 2 THOUSAND
FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE...EXPECT SOME PRETTY DECENT WIND GUSTS AT
BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TROPICAL STORM NOEL CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IMPRESSIVE THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
TROPICAL STORM NOEL MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA COAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...AND WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS...HAVE RAISED GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
CHARLESTON HARBOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO DROP BACK TO SCA CRITERIA BY LATE FRI
AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WIND BETWEEN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM NOEL...THE COLD FROPA AND HIGH PRES INLAND
BEGINS TO RELAX. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO DROP BELOW 20 KT BY LATE SAT
MRNG...THEN WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. WITH WINDS COMING
FROM THE NW...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SETTLE DOWN RATHER STEADILY AS
WIND SPEEDS COME DOWN. SEAS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS LOOK TO DROP
BELOW 6 FT BY LATE SAT MRNG AND BY DAYBREAK SUN FOR THE OUTER GA
WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DUE TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM NOEL AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH ELEVATED LONG
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL...WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
AT THE GEORGIA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES FRIDAY.

LAKE WINDS...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TROPICAL STORM NOEL PUSHING
NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST WILL
RESULT IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ON LAKE MOULTRIE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
AS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOTICEABLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRI-SAT BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...AND WILL HEADLINE NEAR CRITICAL WINDS FOR COASTAL ZONES
FRIDAY WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 16-19
MPH RANGE...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 20 MPH AT TIMES. DOESN/T APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS HOWEVER...AS MIN RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP NO LOWER THAN 35 PERCENT. ON SAT...WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER...IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...BUT RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS FOR INTERIOR ZONES...AND WILL
HEADLINE THIS IN THE FWF AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TROPICAL STORM NOEL TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVE AND BUILDING
EASTERLY SWELL IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL...WILL
RESULT IN 5 TO 7 FOOT BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST.

IN ADDITION TO HIGH SURF...SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST...PARTICULARLY
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330.

&&

JRJ/JPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1139 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

AMZ330-SCZ048>051-021000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-
COASTAL JASPER-
1139 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TIDES
IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 6.5 TO 6.8 FEET MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME SHALLOW FLOODING OF LOW-
LYING AREAS.

HIGH SURF...SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. BREAKING WAVES COULD APPROACH 5 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE AND
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MINOR
BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH SURF...SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND BREAKING WAVES COULD REACH NEAR 5
FEET IN THE SURF ZONE. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...MINOR BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH REPORTS
OF RIP CURRENTS OR BEACH EROSION WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

GAZ117-119-139-141-021000-
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
1139 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

HIGH SURF...SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL INCREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. BREAKING WAVES COULD APPROACH 5 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE AND
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MINOR
BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH SURF...SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND BREAKING WAVES COULD REACH NEAR 5
FEET IN THE SURF ZONE. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...MINOR BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH REPORTS
OF RIP CURRENTS OR BEACH EROSION WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-SCZ040-042>045-047-021000-
JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
1139 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LAKE MOULTRIE
ON FRIDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ350-352-354-374-021000-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1139 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG WINDS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND TROPICAL STORM NOEL TRACKS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

STRONG WINDS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ON
FRIDAY...AS TROPICAL STORM NOEL TRACKS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

JRJ/JAQ/JRL