Coastal Flood Statement 16, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
254 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO ACROSS ALABAMA MOVE E. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR S OF A
STATIONARY/WEAK WARM FRONT TO OUR N AND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
HUMERTO OVER AL. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...MAINLY ACROSS BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES IN SRN SC. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING
W OF OUR AREA ACROSS CNTRL SC/GA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EFFECT OUR
WRN ZONES. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS INTO THIS EVE FOR
THOSE AREAS WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE...THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT BUT STILL IN THE CHC RANGE DUE TO THE LIFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PLENTY
OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...WARMEST ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM W TO E SAT/SAT NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SHOVES A COLD FRONT...NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE OH VLY AND
MID-MS VLY...OFF THE COAST. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL ENOUGH OF A
LOW-LVL MOISTURE FEED OFF THE ATLC TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AND SLGT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FCST THROUGH SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY E OF
INTERSTATE 95. HIGHS SAT WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH
MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COOLEST WX OF THE SEASON IS STILL POISED TO MOVE INTO THE FCST
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE S
OF THE REGION ON SUN. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE N
AND NE DURING THIS TIME...AS AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER
THE ERN STATES. THIS TROUGH MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF
DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK AS IT RETROGRADES W.

THERE WILL BE GOOD COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT DURING THE PERIOD
SUN THROUGH TUE. PWATS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST SMALL POPS OVER THE ATLC AND NEARBY COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT
SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO PROVIDE GENERALLY RAIN FREE WX FURTHER INLAND.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT DEVELOPING...A SURFACE
REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
AREA WED THROUGH FRI...AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY W AND
INLAND. THUS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE POPS FROM E TO W DURING THE MID
AND LATE WEEK PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AND SOME
LOCATIONS COULD EVEN BE LOOKING AT THEIR FIRST SUB 60 DEGREE
READINGS SUN NIGHT AND/OR MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE REGION. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW
MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS AS FROPA IS EXPECTED. IFR CIGS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS RAIN COMES THROUGH THE AREA. VSBYS REMAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAV TERMINAL WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
TEMPORARILY BEFORE FROPA IS EXPECTED. A SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
ONCE THIS OCCURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
LATE SAT THROUGH WED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRES PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH SFC FNTL BNDRY N OF THE
WATERS AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WELL TO THE W. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AOB 15 KT WITH SEAS AOB 3 FT THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS SAT AFTN. CONDITIONS WILL THEN SLOWLY BEGIN
TO DETERIORATE LATE SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE N. CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS MAY CREATE MIXED WIND
DIRECTIONS WITH SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT...BUT NET CONDITIONS WILL BE
HELD BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE FCST AREA
ON SUN...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES TO BUILD FROM THE N AND NE DURING
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT A COASTAL TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP DURING THE MID
WEEK...AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY W.

AS WE HAVE BEEN EXPECTING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A STRONG
PINCHING OF THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
STARTING SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THIS POINT
IN TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THE STRENGTH OF THE
PINCHING...BUT WITH AT LEAST WEAK CAA IT IS SUFFICE TO SAY THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REQUIRE AT LEAST SCA/S FOR NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE EVEN INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MARGINAL
GALES OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS. FOR NOW WILL CAP WINDS NO HIGHER
THAN 20 OR 25 KT DURING SUN THROUGH WED...BUT WILL INDICATE HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE GRIDDED FCSTS.

THE ENE FETCH FAVORS A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS. LOCAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT EVEN THE HIGH VALUES OF THE WNA GUIDANCE COULD BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE...SO MAY ADD A FOOT OR SO TO THE WNA VALUES. THIS
POINTS TOWARD AT LEAST 6 TO 8 FT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST...AND UP
TO DOUBLE DIGIT VALUES FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HIGH SURF...WILL KEEP WATCH ON HOW HIGH THE SEAS BUILD NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED PINCHED GRADIENT AND THE VERY FAVORABLE
AND LONG ENE FETCH...CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG ENE WINDS NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL EVENT.

WHILE THERE IS ALWAYS A CONCERN FOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS
TYPE OF SITUATION...THANKFULLY THE PREDICTED TIDE LEVELS ARE SOME 1
TO 2 FT BELOW ANY VALUES WHERE EVEN SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING BEGINS.
HOWEVER...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS...OUR
DEPARTURES CERTAINLY COULD START TO REACH THESE LEVELS. THUS THERE
REMAINS A RISK FOR AT LEAST SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...POTENTIALLY
WORSE IF WE EXPERIENCE DEPENDING UPON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.

OF EQUAL OR GREATER CONCERN IS THE RISK FOR BEACH EROSION. WE ARE
MOST CERTAINLY LOOKING FOR AT LEAST AT MODERATE BEACH EROSION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE PINCHING AND
WHERE THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT SETS UP...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
LOCALIZED SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

RIP CURRENTS...DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES...BASED JUST ON THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE WINDS WE ARE
LOOKING FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS STARTING SUN.

WILL ADDRESS ALL THESE CONCERNS IN THE HWO AND ALSO IN A COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE LATER THIS AFTN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

RJB/33

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
326 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STATESBORO              32.45N 81.78W
09/13/2007                   BULLOCH            GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            3 TREES AND NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN. DAMAGE
            OCCURRED ON GEORGIA AVENUE AND CHELSEA CIRCLE.

&&