Winter Storm Warning 10, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 PM EST WED NOV 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO NEW YORK
STATE THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS COASTAL MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT...
BEFORE REACHING EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA LATER FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS
THE STORM APPROACHES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TONIGHT
WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
YORK. TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
FORCING WILL SIGNAL A RAPID INCREASE AND EXPANSION OF PCPN ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA (FA) TNGT. THERMAL CONSIDERATIONS SUGGEST RAIN
IN THE FAR SOUTH...SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL AND SNOW
IN THE NORTH. WE HAVE USED A BLEND OF HPC/GFS AND NAM FOR QPF...
ALL OF WHICH ARE IN THE BALLPARK. HEADLINES WILL START WITH WINTER
WX ADVISORIES TONIGHT DOWNEAST INTERIOR AND CENTRAL...WITH WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NORTH.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
GFS ENSEMBLE/SREF AND EUROPEAN MODEL ALL VERY SIMILIAR IN TAKING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH / OR RIGHT / OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND VERY SIMILIAR TO PAST RUNS. CONSIDERABLE
TIGHTENING OF BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR FA...COUPLED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ANTICYCLONIC JET THROUGH QUEBEC...WILL
SPELL POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER THE NORTH ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. MODELS APPEAR VERY SIMILAR / AND CONSISTENT / IN THEIR QPF
TRENDS. PCPN TYPE WILL BE THE BUG-A-BOO. VARIOUS THERMAL THICKNESS
PROFILES PLUS BUFKITT DATA WERE INDICATING A PUSH NORTH OF THE
WARMER AIR AT THE SFC-850 MB LAYER AND ALSO 850-700 MB LAYER.
SENSIBLE WX SUGGESTS ALL RAIN SOUTH...A MIXTURE IN THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS TRANSITIONING TO RAIN...WHILE THE NORTH WILL GO FROM SNOW
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ENUF WARM AIR MIGHT SNEAK INTO THE NE
FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE TILT OF UPR TROF HOWEVER
DOES NOT SUPPORT A BIG WARM-UP...SO WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
HOW THERMAL PROFILES CHANGE. FRONT0GENETICAL FORCING ALSO SUGGESTS
A BAND...PERHAPS NARROW...OF VERY SIGNIFICANT PCPN IN THE NORTH.

WE WILL RUN ADVISORIES CENTRAL TO MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH WARNINGS
IN THE NORTH.

LOW PRESSURE SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT... FROM COASTAL MAINE INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK...THURSDAY EVENING. PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY IN
THE SOUTH...AND AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTH. BLUSTERY AND COLDER
TYPE CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SET TO ROLL ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
THANKSGIVING DAY STORM. THIS WILL PROVIDE A COOL BUT FAIRLY DRY
WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WILL BE ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS WERE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF WAS A BIT QUICKER
MOVING THIS SYSTEM INTO THE NE. THE NEW 12Z GFS HAS SINCE TRENDED
HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH ALL GUIDANCE STARTING TO
TREND TOWARD AGREEMENT...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS NOW
MODERATE. THE FORECAST WAS INITIALIZED WITH GRIDDEDMOS AND
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ON THE MON/TUE TO BRING PRECIPITATION IN A BIT
EARLIER AND TO UP POPS A BIT AS WELL.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE A WINTRY MIX FOR AREAS IN CENTRAL MAINE. TERMINALS AT
KMLT...KHUL...KPQI...KCAR...KGNR ALL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN AT THE SURFACE OR IN THE VERY LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. PLEASE CONSULT TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. A WEAKER WEATHER
FEATURE WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS IN A CHANCE OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION.
&&

.MARINE...
INITIALLY RATHER LARGE SWELLS BEING REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF OUR
WATERS...CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDE. AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS TO INCREASE
AND SEAS TO REMAIN CHAOTIC. SCA HEADLINES UP AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. PERHAPS MINIMAL GALES LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY BLUSTERY NWLY FLOW TO
SETTLE OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS DIMINISHING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ001>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ011-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

NEAR TERM...STUREY/FOSTER
SHORT TERM...FOSTER/STUREY
LONG TERM...LERICOS
AVIATION...LERICOS
MARINE...LERICOS/STUREY

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