Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY
PRESS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. SPC HAS CONTINUED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR OUR CWA.
ADDITIONAL STAFFING MOST LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM/GFS & SPC SREF) INSTABILITY PARAMS
INDICATING AN ACTIVE DAY BY EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
W/PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIATING CONVECTION AND THEN COLD FRONT
MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT. MUCAPES HIT 2500+ J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
W/LIS HITTING ABV -6. LAPSE RATES FROM H7-H5 AOA 7C/KM. KIS ABV 35
W/EHI BOTH AT 1KM AND 0-3 KM AOA 1 AND EVEN SHOWING POTENTIAL OF
APCHG 2 WHICH WOULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STG
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS THERE ESP IN THE MID LEVELS (35 KTS). CWA
IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LVL CAP W/MID LVL TEMPS 6-7C. H5 TEMPS
RUNNING -10 TO -11C. SERIES OF COMPLEXES MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
END OF THE CWA LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LAYING OUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION TODAY. IT WON/T
TAKE MUCH ESP W/EXPECTED HEATING TO GET THINGS GOING. MORE
COMPLEXES BACK INTO QUEBEC W/COOLING TOPS MOVING ENE PER LATEST
IR/WV SATL IMAGERY. THESE COMPLEXES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS
THEY MOVE INTO MAINE TODAY.

THINKING HERE IS THAT THE ACTION WILL KICK OFF OVER THE WRN AND
NRN AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PROPAGATES INTO CNTL AND
ERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT THE
ENHANCED WORDING OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE GRIDS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN THINGS WILL WEAKEN AS AIRMASS COOLS
AND DRIES ABV 850 MBS.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN SW FLOW
THROUGH 700 MBS...PWS RUNNING ABV 1.5 INCHES AND THETA E VALUES AT
850 MBS RIGHT AT 340. LACKING INGREDIENT IS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE
BUT CELLS MOVING OVER THE SAME AREA COULD BE CAUSE FOR CONCERN.
THEREFORE...MADE SOME AJDUSTMENTS TO QPF INTO TONIGHT TO INCREASE
ESP ACROSS THE N AND E. BOOSTED MAXES TODAY W/EXPECTED HEATING
W/MANY SITES HITTING UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOWER 90S. EXCEPTION IS
THE COAST DUE TO SSW WIND.

AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MDEP CONTINUES TODAY FOR MEZ029 FOR OZONE
LEVELS REACHING THE UNHEALTHY LEVEL. EXPECTING THINGS TO IMPROVE
BY THE AFTERNOON W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS HELPING TO CLEAN THE AIR OUT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST SREF TIMING THIS LOOKS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING IN MOVING SKY AND POPS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE HAVE REMAINDER OF SKY AND POP GRIDS
LOOK GOOD. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE ADJUSTED NUMBERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BASED ON NAM12. WIND GRIDS GENERATED WITH
A MAV/MET COMBINATION AND HAVE USED NAM12 WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN MODELS WITH REGARD TO A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUES
THROUGH THURS. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE EVEN BETWEEN THE
TWO LATEST GFS MODEL RUNS. KEEPING THIS IN MIND...WENT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR TUES AS FIRST LOW PULLS NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE TUE NGT BEFORE THE NEXT LOW MOVES
WITH CLDS AND SHWRS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE FA FOR WED. WENT
LIGHTER ON THE POPS THAN HPC FOR THURS. THE LATEST 12Z GFS SHOWS
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS TIME PROGRESSES.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON W/MVFR VSBYS THIS MORNING ESP
DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS COULD VERY WELL GO TO MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT W/CONVECTION FIRING OFF. STRATUS AND FOG COULD BE AN
ISSUE FOR KBHB TIL THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST SAT MORNING.

LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ON SAT ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. SUN THRU TUE LOOKS TO BE VFR ATM...XCPT MVFR POSSIBLE MON
AFT AND NGT WITH SHWRS/TSTMS AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM. SWELL OUT THERE AND DECIDED TO CARRY IT TODAY.
SWELL SHOULD TO SEA STATE W/WINDS PICKING UP TO 15-20 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF APCHG COLD FRONT. KEPT PREV WAVES
3-5 FT. FOG WILL KEEPS VSBYS BLO 1 NM EARLY TODAY AND THEN IMPROVE
LATER AS WINDS PICK AND SWITCH TO SWLY DIRECTION.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS TO
INITIALIZE GRIDS THEN REDUCED SPEEDS AROUND 2 KNOTS TO COMPENSATE
FOR EFFECTS OF MARINE LAYER. FOR WAVES: WNA GRAPHICS SHOWING MOST
OF FETCH IN GULF OF MAINE...MODEL WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 FEET PLUS LOOK
TOO HIGH GIVE THE POSITION OF THE FETCH OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SO HAVE LOWERED WAVE MODEL NUMBERS BY 1 TO 2 FEET.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...NOUHAN
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
526 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

ANZ050-MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-040930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
526 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN
MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED THE
ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

AMATEUR RADIO NETWORK AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

HEWITT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
514 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

MEZ001-002-031015-
NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-
514 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CARIBOU HAS ISSUED SPECIAL
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...

AT 505 AM EDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER FRENCHVILLE. THE STORM WAS MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH 615 AM EDT INCLUDE...
    FRENCHVILLE...        MADAWASKA...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE...
    STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...UP TO 50 MILES AN HOUR...
    HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH SOME PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
DIAL 1-877-633-6772 OR CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN CARIBOU MAINE.

HEWITT

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