Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MAINE EARLY SATURDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.
SHOWERS AREA POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE JUST NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT LATE SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MAINE ON SUNDAY INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COMBINATION
OF UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE STATE AND MOIST UNSTABLE LOWER
LEVELS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING AND
COMBINED THIS WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXPECT ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. DIRER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PROVIDING FOR FAIR WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST REGIONS ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG MAY DEVELOP JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
MIX OUT MOIST LOW LEVELS BEFORE SUNRISE SO WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST. MAJOR DIFFERENCES FOR LATE SATURDAY AS GFS
INDICATES SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE. SINCE THE NAM AND NGM DOES NOT INDICATE THIS
WILL FORECAST JUST SCATTERED POPS FOR DOWNEAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE
LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT SOME
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD WITH A WARM FRONT
DURING SUNDAY. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLATED TSTMS WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE MENTIONED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS MENTIONED. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT DURING SUNDAY. FEEL IF ANY SEVERE OCCURS
IT WILL BE CONFINED SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.

MODELS ARE DIVERGING ON A SOLUTION WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BASED ON THIS HAVE LEANED WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEPT CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR LONG TERM AS THERE REMAINS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN SYSTEMS IN THE LONG TERM MODELS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
RETURNING ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING.
AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 5 FT BUT MAINLY DUE
TO A SOUTH SWELL SO WILL NOT ISSUE SCA FOR SEAS. VSBY WILL IMPROVE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR CROSSES THE WATERS AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...WEITLICH
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER/FITZSIMMONS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
902 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007

ANZ050-MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-071315-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
902 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTH CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN
MAINE...SOUTHEAST MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FITZSIMMONS

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