Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
112 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT STILL SITUATED BACK ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING COOL FRONT. PLENTY OF COVERAGE BACK ACROSS CENTRAL
GEORGIA. PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON BY SPC. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE
FAIRLY HIGH...SO HAIL IS NOT REALLY GOING TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT.
MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH DOWNBURSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING
EAST OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL STILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR ANY PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. DECREASING
TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPS ON TAP...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S...AND LOWS DOWN AROUND 70 EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DRIVEN COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH THE
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE OUT WEST. ACTIVE AFTERNOON WEATHER
STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE CAROLINAS.  WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THOSE WILL BE THE DAYS WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH BUT WITH INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS...COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED AND WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER S/W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH GOOD MIXING AND SW
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AFTER
21Z WILL PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF IFR/MVFR. OVERNIGHT...THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH TO THE CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY 08Z-10Z AT
MOST LOCATIONS. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION EXCEPT IN A FEW LOCATIONS SUCH AS AGS AND OGB WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. AFTER 14Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
236 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     HAIL             SUMTER                  33.94N 80.39W
07/11/2007  E1.00 INCH       SUMTER             SC   PUBLIC

&&

CHERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
254 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ018-020-025-026-030-035-112000-
AIKEN-BARNWELL-BURKE-COLUMBIA-EDGEFIELD-LINCOLN-MCCORMICK-MCDUFFIE-
NEWBERRY-RICHMOND-SALUDA-
254 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECTING
AIKEN...BARNWELL...BURKE...COLUMBIA...EDGEFIELD...LINCOLN...MCCORMICK
...MCDUFFIE...NEWBERRY...RICHMOND AND SALUDA COUNTIES...

AT 250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA MOVING INTO
THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

REPORT LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLOODING TO YOUR COUNTY
SHERIFF...OR CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1, 800, 7
7 5, 7 1 9 9.

SJN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
355 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             4 W AIKEN               33.54N 81.80W
07/11/2007  E0.88 INCH       AIKEN              SC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL PLUS SOME LARGE LIMBS DOWN IN
            WARRENVILLE.

&&