Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
914 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2007

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT. ADDED IN A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AT THIS
TIME. LATEST MODELS SEEM TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MIDWEEK TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COOLER PATTERN
CONTINUES ON TRACK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE INTO THURSDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW AN EASTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT COOLER SURFACE AIR INTO THE AREA. HAVE KEPT ANY
WARMUP FROM STARTING UNTIL FRIDAY. KEPT MINOR MOUNTAIN POPS IN FOR
TUESDAY BUT HAVE FAVORED DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK SINCE
PATTERN LOOKS LIKE CAPPING COULD PREVENT EXTENT OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY WITH DECENT NOCTURNAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR SLOWER
TEMPERATURE STARTS. FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD
WHICH WILL ALLOW WARMING HEIGHTS BUT SURFACE THERMAL TROF SHOULD
LAG BEHIND WHICH WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND CAP TEMPS AT
NORMAL VALUES. PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE WEEKEND
WHICH MEANS THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MONTANA BRINGING THE
THERMAL TROF WITH IT AND A RETURN TO HOT WEATHER. EXTENDED PATTERN
LOOKS PRETTY DRY. BORSUM

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS TO
SHERIDAN LINE. THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO FAR EASTERN MONTANA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MORNING. OCCASIONAL IFR
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR ANY STORMS. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/087 059/088 059/081 056/081 058/083 061/087 063/093
    64/T    31/B    21/B    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U
LVM 054/089 053/089 051/081 049/080 049/084 051/087 051/093
    32/T    20/B    02/T    11/U    11/U    10/U    00/U
HDN 062/089 059/091 060/085 054/084 056/087 059/090 061/097
    64/T    31/B    21/B    10/U    01/U    10/U    00/U
MLS 067/085 059/087 060/082 054/082 055/084 060/087 063/094
    55/T    31/B    21/B    01/U    01/U    10/U    00/U
4BQ 066/086 060/086 060/084 055/082 055/083 060/086 063/092
    65/T    32/T    21/B    11/U    11/U    10/U    00/U
BHK 065/081 057/082 059/081 055/076 053/081 055/081 057/088
    45/T    31/B    21/B    01/U    01/U    10/U    00/U
SHR 062/087 056/088 057/083 050/081 052/084 055/086 057/093
    64/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    20/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
318 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2007

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-082130-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
318 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ZONES.
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WET...PLENTY OF LIGHTNING IS LIKELY RESULTING IN POSSIBLE FIRE
STARTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE FUELS ARE DRIEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
806 PM MDT SAT JUL 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL             5 S RYEGATE             46.23N 109.25W
07/07/2007  M1.00 INCH       GOLDEN VALLEY      MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SOLUM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
937 PM MDT SAT JUL 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BILLINGS                45.79N 108.54W
07/07/2007                   YELLOWSTONE        MT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS STREETS, UNDERPASSES AND PARKING LOTS FLOODED.

0815 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SHERIDAN                44.79N 106.96W
07/07/2007                   SHERIDAN           WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN, STREET FLOODING AND 6 INCH DIAMETER
            TREES DOWN IN THE ROAD.

0825 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LAUREL                  45.67N 108.77W
07/07/2007                   YELLOWSTONE        MT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD WASHED OUT.

&&

SOLUM

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