Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
309 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2007

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CANADA THIS EVENING
WHICH WILL KEEP MAJORITY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RUC MODEL BRINGING A WEAK IMPULSE INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA THIS EVENING WHICH IS DEPICTED WELL ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD DRYING TAKING PLACE BEHIND IT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG EXIST AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR FALLON AND CARTER COUNTY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. WILL KEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DRY
TONIGHT AS VERY DRY AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL SEND SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE RIDGE.
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO INCREASE. THERMAL RIDGE ALSO BUILDING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL
ALLOW ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE FOR A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MUCH WARM AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS READINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW DURING THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO 90S FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH 850 TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SOLUM

&&

.AVIATION...

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROUTES TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ACROSS
THE EAST TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A COLD
FRONT ALSO IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BRING GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT. SOLUM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/075 051/083 058/090 061/093 060/092 061/092 062/094
    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 041/073 043/083 050/089 054/092 055/091 053/091 054/093
    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 050/075 047/087 058/091 061/093 062/092 063/092 064/094
    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 050/074 051/084 061/088 061/091 062/090 063/090 064/092
    00/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 051/074 050/086 059/088 063/091 062/090 063/090 064/092
    20/U    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
BHK 052/072 045/082 055/085 059/089 060/088 058/088 059/090
    20/N    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
SHR 050/073 049/084 054/090 058/092 060/091 061/091 062/093
    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1058 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             14 NW FORSYTH           46.39N 106.90W
06/24/2007  E1.00 INCH       ROSEBUD            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

1015 PM     HAIL             6 NE VANANDA            46.43N 106.92W
06/24/2007  E1.25 INCH       ROSEBUD            MT   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CARS DENTED

&&