Winter Storm Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 140143
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
943 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

...MAJOR LATE SEASON WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS THIS EVENING 
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE
STORM STRENGTHENS...ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK
WEST INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK
AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. JUST A SMALL
CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN
THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.

NYZ003>005-011>014-020-021-140945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.070415T0300Z-070416T2200Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
943 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN OR SLEET
AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH A CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE. JUST A SMALL
CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN
THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

NYZ006>008-140945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.070415T0800Z-070416T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
943 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN OR SLEET
AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH A CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL...WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR
40 MPH POSSIBLE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE. JUST A SMALL
CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN
THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

TJP

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 140736
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...MAJOR LATE SEASON WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER ALABAMA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AND REACH THE DELAWARE COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
THEN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO NEAR BOSTON BY MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT TO SEA.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO NEW YORK STATE LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE STORM STRENGTHENS...ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
BACK WEST INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK
AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

NYZ003>005-011>014-020-021-141545-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.070415T0300Z-070416T2200Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
336 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH OR
EVEN CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
BUT CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOWFALL... NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE. JUST A SMALL
CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN
THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE...BUT NOT A CERTAINTY. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA... REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

NYZ006>008-141545-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.070415T0800Z-070416T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
336 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT SHOULD
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOWFALL...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE. JUST A SMALL
CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN
THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE...BUT NOT A CERTAINTY. IF YOU ARE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

SFM

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 141444
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...MAJOR LATE SEASON WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND REACH THE DELAWARE
COAST BY SUNDAY. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AND
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NEAR BOSTON BY MONDAY
MORNING. IT WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT TO SEA.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO NEW YORK STATE LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE STORM STRENGTHENS...ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
BACK WEST INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK
AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY...
ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON POTENTIAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

NYZ003>005-011>014-020-021-142245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.070415T0300Z-070416T2200Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...OLEAN...WELLSVILLE
1044 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH
OR EVEN CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY...THEN CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO THE SNOWFALL...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
MPH POSSIBLE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE. JUST A SMALL
CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN
THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE...BUT NOT A CERTAINTY. IF YOU ARE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

NYZ006>008-142245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0004.070415T0800Z-070416T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1044 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES DURING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOWFALL...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION TYPE. JUST A SMALL
CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN
THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE...BUT NOT A CERTAINTY. IF YOU ARE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE
LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

$$

HITCHCOCK

000 
WWUS41 KBUF 141928
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...MAJOR LATE SEASON WINTER STORM EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND REACH THE DELAWARE COAST BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING OUT TO
SEA AND WEAKENING BY MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO NEW YORK STATE LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE STORM STRENGTHENS...ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN
BACK WEST INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM.

PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OF
NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE
SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

NYZ006>008-150330-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.070415T0800Z-070416T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.070415T1600Z-070416T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
328 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW MAY BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF RAIN ON SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. ANY MIX WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 12 TO 18 INCHES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL...NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IF
YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU SHOULD CHOOSE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. IF POWER IS LOST AND YOU USE A GENERATOR
ENSURE THAT IT IS RUN OUTDOORS. BE SURE TO PROPERLY VENTILATE
PORTABLE SPACE HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-150330-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.070415T0300Z-070416T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0003.070415T1600Z-070416T2200Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE
328 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND
GENESEE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. ANY MIX WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 

1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF ROCHESTER. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 8 TO 12 INCHES BY MONDAY EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY RESULT IN TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IF
YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THE WARNING AREA YOU SHOULD CHOOSE AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE IF POSSIBLE...OR YOU SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE. IF POWER IS LOST AND YOU USE A GENERATOR
ENSURE THAT IT IS RUN OUTDOORS. BE SURE TO PROPERLY VENTILATE
PORTABLE SPACE HEATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ012-020-150330-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.070415T0300Z-070416T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.070415T0600Z-070416T2200Z/
WYOMING-CATTARAUGUS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...OLEAN
328 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM
EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED
WITH RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ANY MIX WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY EVENING MAY REACH 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION
TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN
SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WHILE
THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ011-150330-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.070415T0300Z-070416T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.070415T2200Z-070416T2200Z/
GENESEE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BATAVIA
328 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM
EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THE MIX WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY EVENING
MAY REACH THE 5 TO 8 INCH RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WHILE
THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ019-085-150330-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.070415T0600Z-070416T2200Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
328 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM
EDT MONDAY. 

WET SNOW AND IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ANY MIX WILL
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY EVENING MAY REACH THE 4 TO 7 INCH
RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOWFALL...NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WHILE
THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT...THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

NYZ001-002-010-150330-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0009.070415T2200Z-070416T2200Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO
328 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM
EDT MONDAY. 

A MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THE MIX WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY EVENING
MAY REACH THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,
SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER
RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

HITCHCOCK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...

MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE LOW
PULLING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN LOW CIGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT MVFR TO DOMINATE UPSTATE NY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT AND GO VFR WEST OF KROC...WITH CLEARING PROGRESSING TO
KROC OVERNIGHT. THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART WILL MAINTAIN
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A
CONTINUATION OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...AN INTENSE COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...WHICH IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WET
SNOW FROM SUN INTO MON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1043 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007/

UPDATE...

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE WITHDRAWS NE. LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FROM THE
FINGER LKS WEST WITH PRECIP THREAT ENDING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN TIER. PRECIP TYPE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH REST OF MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS FURTHER
WEST. NO CHANGES BEYOND FIRST PERIOD AT THIS TIME. NEXT FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO MAKE CALL ON POSSIBLE WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY FROM THE
FINGER LKS EAST FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 637 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007/

UPDATE...

AM THROWING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK PTYPES SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING. SURFACE OBS HAVE SHOWED TEMPS REMAINING A LITTLE WARMER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A -SHRA/-SHSN MIX TO
CONTINUE. THUS...WILL BE UPDATING TO MENTION MORE OF A MIX EARLY
THIS MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON AS PER PREVIOUS THINKING.

HAD ALSO THOUGHT ABOUT POSSIBLY DROPPING POPS BACK A BIT ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY...BUT CANADIAN RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW
PRECIP PICKING UP AGAIN E/SE OF LAKE HURON AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THEREFORE...WILL BE LEAVING CAT POPS IN PLACE AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH THE TWO LOWS EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATING NEAR
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING. THE RATHER MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING/DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY.

PLENTY OF LIGHT -RA/SN CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF THIS
WRITING. WITH A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES STILL DUE TO ROTATE THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO KEEP
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING INTO MID MORNING EVERYWHERE...BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING THEM OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BEGINS NOSES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL GENERALLY START THINGS OUT AS JUST PLAIN -SHSN AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SOLID PCPN EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN WILL GRADUALLY WORK BACK THROUGH A -SHRA/-SHSN
MIX TO PLAIN -SHRA AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MODERATE A BIT DURING THE
DAY. TONIGHT...WILL QUICKLY GO BACK TO ALL -SHSN AS NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SETS IN...BUT BY THEN WELL ONLY BE
DEALING WITH CHANCE POPS AND MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL FINGER LAKES
NORTHEASTWARD. AS THE PCPN WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE...
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THAT.

GENERALLY EXPECT THE PRECIP TO END ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. EVEN THERE...EXPECT THAT
ANY PCPN SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH DONE BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS GENERALLY FOLLOWING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE BULK OF
SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET RATHER INTERESTING FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD.

OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED
NOTICEABLY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...WHICH RESULTS IN BOTH MODELS BRINGING PRECIP IN MUCH
FASTER SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN SLAMMING THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
1.0-1.5 OF QPF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF A HEAVY WET SNOW GIVEN CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS. THIS SCENARIO IS THE RESULT OF MUCH
EARLIER PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...AND IS A SOLUTION THAT IS AT
ODDS WITH FORECAST CONTINUITY AND THE SLOWER AND STILL MORE-EASTERLY
SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/AND CANADIAN GEM...WHICH DO NOT PHASE
ENERGY FROM THE TWO STREAMS AS QUICKLY...AND ARE MORE FAVORED BY
HPC.

CONSIDERING THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM AND GFS AT THIS
POINT...FEEL THAT IT IS BEST TO LEAN IN THE DIRECTION OF CONTINUITY
AT THIS TIME...AND CONTINUE WITH A SOMEWHAT SLOWER/LOWER QPF
SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THOUGH POPS WILL STILL BE
HIGH /LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL/ FOR SUNDAY. AS SUCH...WILL ALSO BE
HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...AND WILL JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
UPCOMING EVENT IN THE HWO AT THE MOMENT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

IMPRESSIVE EAST COAST STORM WILL BE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY.  SURFACE LOW WILL BE 3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW WITH A VERY STRONG EASTERLY COMPONENT...
AT AN IMPRESSIVE 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL.  THE WESTERN NY
AREA HOWEVER WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THIS MONSTER WHICH
APPEARS TO BE WELL HANDLED BY THE ENSEMBLE DATASETS THUS FAR.  THERE
IS SOME CONCERN OF SNOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BUF
FORECAST AREA...SAY EAST OF KROC AND PARTICULARLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.  HOWEVER ITS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY.  WILL ADDRESS THIS IN
AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LOW HITS A WALL DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE
AND STALLS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
WEAKENING AND HEADING EAST OUT TO SEA ON TUESDAY.  NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY WILL STRUGGLE TO WORK ITS WAY EAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

MARINE...

BRISK WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY ON LAKE ERIE TOWARD MIDNIGHT BUT NOT UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ONTARIO. AS A RESULT...WILL READJUST THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...STARTING THEM ALL WITH THIS PACKAGE AND EXPIRING
THE LAKE ERIE FLAGS AT 10 PM TONIGHT...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO FLAGS AT
4 AM SATURDAY WEST OF ROCHESTER...AND 10 AM SATURDAY FURTHER EAST.
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLAGS ON THE ERIE NEARSHORES FROM DUNKIRK TO
BUFFALO DUE TO ICE.

WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEAST AND INCREASING ON SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING STORM BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTH UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
UPDATE...JJP/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...ZAFF
MARINE...SFM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
600 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-141000-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
600 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
SATURDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND DEEPEN INTO A SIGNIFICANT STORM BY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN WORK NORTHEAST NEAR OR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY SPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

WHILE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINITY STILL EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT CAN BE EXPECTED...THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY WET SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD. AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
HEAVY SNOW APPEARS TO BE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-141000-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
600 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJR