Special Marine Warning 23, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING PLEASANT SUNNY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH NUMBER 418 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 01Z.

THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FIRED UP ALONG THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH ARE NOW ENTERING OUR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
COUNTIES. MOST OF THE THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF LEWIS
COUNTY BY 5 PM.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING
THROUGH MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO. ANOTHER LINE OF ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WILL BE AFFECTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE JET STREAK THAT IS ADVANCING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WE STILL EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THIS UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL BE
REFRESHINGLY COOLER WITH THE FIRST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN OVER
A WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...WE HAVE LEFT IN
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WILL
BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GIVE WAY TO VERY WARM AND
INCREASINGLY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK. SOME DETAILS...

A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON SATURDAY.
WHILE MOST SITES WILL EXPERIENCE A DRY DAY...THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL THEN NOSE SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION
ON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE 70S. I
SHOULD POINT OUT THAT WHILE H8 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF +8 TO
+10C...I WILL BE AIMING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO
THE CONTINUED DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY RAISING H8 TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID TEENS. HAVE AIMED HIGH ON TEMPS AGAIN...BUT MAY STILL
BE UNDERDONE AS HIGHS COULD EASILY EXCEED THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS BEING SUPPORTED MORE BY THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES...
RATHER THAN THE VERY WARM 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. THE ENSEMBLES ONLY
SHOW H8 TEMPS OF ABOUT +10C.

IN ANY CASE...THE WARMTH WILL BE BACK IN FORCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE H5 PLAINS RIDGE WILL NOSE ACROSS THE GR LAKES. H8
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S C. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SFC TEMPS OF 90 F OR HIGHER FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE FINGER LAKES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AFTER
21Z.

A COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS SHOW THAT MORE STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND
ALONG THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WHILE CONVECTION THAT PREVIOUSLY
WENT THROUGH ROC IS NOW HEADED FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AREA.

THE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD REMAIN VERY
ALERT THROUGH 02Z FOR THE ONGOING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE FRONT WILL SLOLWY PRESS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE SOME LEFTOVER -SHRA MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS
BETWEEN 02 AND 06Z...THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE FINE VFR WEATHER FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION.

LOOKING EVEN FURTHER OUT...ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER OUND OF CONVECTION. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A BRIEF 3 HOUR TIME PERIOD WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE
PRESENT.

GENERALLY VFR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND
SPEACIAL MARINE WARNINGS ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THOSE WITH
MARINE INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND/OR TO DELAY ANY BOATING PLANS UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS BOTH LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ONLY AVERAGE 10 TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THIS TIME...STRONG CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS.

THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE LAKES BY ABOUT 03Z...AFTER
WHICH TIME WINDS AND WAVES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW
WINDS AND WAVES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...WHILE WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA DURING THAT PERIOD...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-200900-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SAYS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY HAVE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGE WILL BE
FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FROM LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-200900-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SAYS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEE SAFE
HARBOR IF MARINE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
256 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MACEDON                 43.07N 77.30W
06/19/2007                   WAYNE              NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN NORTHERN AND EASTERN
            PORTION OF COUNTY.

0158 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SODUS                   43.24N 77.06W
06/19/2007                   WAYNE              NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BOAT SUNK BY HIGH WINDS AT PULTNEYVILLE YACHT CLUB

&&

MPUKAJLO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SANDY CREEK             43.64N 76.09W
06/19/2007                   OSWEGO             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN FROM CENTRAL SQUARE TO
            SANDY CREEK

&&

MPUKAJLO