Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS51 KBUF 130912
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
512 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

NYC029-121-130930-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-070713T0930Z/
WYOMING NY-ERIE NY-
512 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM EDT
FOR ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES...

AT 508 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VARYSBURG...OR ABOUT 14 MILES EAST
OF EAST AURORA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BEWTEEN ATTICA AND WARSAW BY 525 AM EDT...
  WYOMING BY 530 AM EDT...

LAT...LON 4287 7846 4287 7804 4275 7801 4274 7803
      4274 7818 4273 7819 4270 7859 4287 7862
      4289 7850 4289 7847

$$

HIBBERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
247 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AS A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHILE THE BULK OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RAINFREE...
A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING THE AREA SOME
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE LIKELY PERIOD OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL EASE ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS A
LARGE +2 STD RIDGE DOMINANTES THE WEST WHILE A -2 STD TROUGH IS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
ANOMALOUS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO GENERATE MORE SCT CONVECTION...WITH A
COOL UNSTABLE AIRMASS BECOMING EVEN MORE UNSTABLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID JULY SUN. THE COOL AIRMASS HAS ALREADY
SHOWN A PROPENCITY TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL...AS STORMS EARLIER
IN THE SHIFT PRODUCED MARBLE TO DIME SIZED HAIL SOUTH OF BUFFALO.

THE FREEZING LEVEL AS OF THE 00Z KBUF SOUNDING HAD LOWERED TO
ABOUT 9400 FT WHILE THE WET BULB ZERO WAS ARND 8700 FT. THESE
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRZG LEVELS FALLING TO ARND 8500 FT.
THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE FOUND WITHIN AN AIRMASS WHERE
LAPSE RATES BLO H7 WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 DEG C AND WHERE CAPES
COULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 300-500 J/KG. WHILE THESE ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY VALUES...THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS IN THE VCNTY OF
WISCONSIN. THIS FEATURE WILL DIVE UNDERNEATH OUR AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
COULD LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE FACTORS THAT
COULD INHIBIT THE EXTENT OF ANY STORMS THOUGH.

FIRST...AREAS IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE LAKES COULD BE SHADOWED AS A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD ONCE AGAIN HINDER STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE COVERED BY REDUCING POPS IN THOSE AREAS
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS.

SECONDLY...WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AT H5 WILL SERVE TO CAP THE
ENVIRONMENT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE WILL THUS LIKELY BE LOW
TOPPED IN NATURE.

AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS CONCERNED...WHILE THE LACK OF ANY JET
DYNAMICS IS NOT A DETRIMENTAL FACTOR...IT IS CERTAINLY NOT GOING
TO HELP.

WHAT THIS WILL ALL BOIL DOWN TO WILL BE A CONTINUED 30-40 POP
CHANCE FOR -SHRA/TSRA WITH THE MENTION OF SMALL HAIL IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR (SPEED OR
DIRECTIONAL) COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY LOW CAPES AND LOW TOPS
SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS FROM PRODUCING ANY HAIL LARGER THAN DIME
SIZED....BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

BY TONIGHT...THE AIRMASS WILL TEND TO DRY OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
CLEAR OUT AND FOR TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN DROP DOWN WELL INTO THE 50S
WITH SOME 40S ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND TUG HILL REGIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE DROPPING
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION.
CLOUDS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE COURSE
OF THE DAY WITH SOME -SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BY DAYS END. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH
A LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP THE CONVECTION NORTH OF BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. ALL IN ALL
THOUGH THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN FREE WITH TEMPS JUST A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF TODAY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLOW
MOVING SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE THE BEST CHANCE OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. CURRENT QPF
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH FOR THE 12 HOUR
PERIOD.

THE MAJORITY OF THE PLUMES WITHIN THE 21Z SREF ENSEMBLE SHOW PCPN
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO BSED ON THAT AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...WILL RAISE 60 POPS TO 70. THANKS TO SURROUNDING
WFOS FOR POP COLLABORATION.

BU SUNDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SAGGING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SUNSHINE WILL RETURN WITH TEMPS
REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE START OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WEAK COOL FRONT LOOKS TO WORK
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO WORK JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRYING
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT NORTHERN EDGE OF
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO
START OUT ABOVE NORMAL FORM MONDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
16-18C EASILY SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
GENERALLY 10-12C.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO BROADEN AND EXPAND TO THE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO PUCH INTO
OUR REGION...WITH AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF REAL SUMMER WARMTH
FOR LATER NEXT WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LOOK
MORE AND MORE LIKELY...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS AVERAGING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. NAM12 WAS SHOWING A WEST TO EAST BAND ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...INDICATIVE OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. THIS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SAME AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE...CIGS AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE SOME SMALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT...LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ON THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF LOWERING TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THUS HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE. ONE LAST SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN DIRECT WINDS TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AND MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTINESS ON THE LAKES
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO AGAIN ARISE ON
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH TIME A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LAKE ERIE...THEN LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...TMA/RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
521 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-130930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
521 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-130930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
521 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

RSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1120 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

NYZ010>012-019-020-085-130415-
CATTARAUGUS NY-CHAUTAUQUA NY-ERIE NY-GENESEE NY-WYOMING NY-
1120 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 1215 AM EDT.
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
POSSIBLY MARBLE SIZED HAIL. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ERIE COUNTY AND NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY.

TJP