Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Buffalo, NY

000 
WWUS51 KBUF 062007
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007

NYC045-049-062045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-070706T2045Z/
LEWIS NY-JEFFERSON NY-
406 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...

AT 402 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LA
FARGEVILLE TO 6 MILES WEST OF INDIAN RIVER...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT DRUM TO 16 MILES EAST OF
FORT DRUM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  INDIAN RIVER BY 415 PM EDT...
  EVANS MILLS BY 420 PM EDT...
  FORT DRUM BY 435 PM EDT...
  DEFERIET BY 440 PM EDT...
  CARTHAGE AND WEST CARTHAGE BY 445 PM EDT...

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A 
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. 
THESE STORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF FLOODING RAIN. BE AWARE THAT 
BLINDING RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG INTERSTATE 81 NEAR HIGHWAY 411. SLOW 
DOWN TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

LAT...LON 4424 7610 4413 7558 4402 7518 4381 7515
      4397 7563 4413 7602

$$

HIBBERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1202 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD DRIER AIR
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER THOUGH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING AS
WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF CONCERN APPEARS TO BE THE DEVELOPING LINE OVER ONTARIO CANADA
MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. ASSUMING THIS LINE HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT ORLEANS COUNTY EAST BY 5
OR 6PM. HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...BUT OVERALL FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE
MOMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY
OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

OTHERWISE...LAKE BREEZES BECOMING APPARENT WITH CUMULUS FIELD
SHOWING UP WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BUT THERE IS NO CAP ANYWHERE IN NY STATE.
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE LAKES OR
TOWARD EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO BETWEEN NOW AND 2PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLGT CHC SHWR/TSTM IN THE EVENING EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND SLGT CHC IN GRIDS ACROSS PORTION OF NIAG FRONTIER
TO COVER ANY RESIDUAL ACTIVITY FRM DAYTIME HEATING. NAM/WRF ALSO
SHOWS DECENT AREAS OF LIFT FRM 850-700MB ACROSS NIA PENINSULA  AND
EAST OF LK ONTARIO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVE PERIOD. REST OF TNGT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM OHIO VALLEY WITH GENLY PT CLDY
SKIES.

MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES FOR SATURDAY WITH GFS KEEPING
CLDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRNT FURTHER NORTH, MAINLY ACROSS
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NAM/WRF IS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND FINGER LKS REGION. AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH A BLENDED
SOLUTION AND MENTION CHANCE SHWR/TSTM ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AND BRING SLGT CHC IN GRIDS TO AREAS EAST OF ROC IN
THE FINGER LKS REGION. ELSEWHERE WILL GO WITH PTLY SUNNY/MSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE SHWR SATURDAY EVENING EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DUE TO PROXIMITY OF WARM FRNT, ELSEWHERE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
OHIO VALLEY SHLD BRING PTLY CLDY/MNLY CLR SKIES.

SUNDAY, LOOKS LIKE A SCORCHER AS HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
CIRCULATES A SW FLOW OF HOT, HUMID AIR WITH 850 TEMPS OF +18 BY THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHLD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOW 90S TWD
THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LKS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY VCNTY OF THE ST LAW
VALLEY WILL BRING CHANCE SHWRS THERE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS A LITTLE
SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL BRING CHANCE AFT TSTM TO NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT PTLY-MSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL START WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT LATEST PROGS SHOW FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW ON
MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS AND HIGH TEMPS MONDAY PER HPC
GRAPHICS...BUT IF 12Z GFS PANS OUT THEN TEMPS WILL BE LOWER.

HPC GRAPHICS KEEP AREA NEAR FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH WED...WITH WARM
FRONT ON TUES NT AND COLD FRONT WED NT...NECESSITATING CHC POPS
THROUGH WED ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. COOLER AND DRIER ON
THURS. 12Z GFS AT ODDS WITH ALL FRONTS SUPPRESSED...LEADING TO DRY
COOLER DAYS TUES AND WED.

SO..CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...ABOUT 3 ON A
SCALE OF 1 TO 10. WILL FOLLOW HPC FOR NOW WITH UNSETTLED WX AND CHC
POPS MON-WED...DRIER THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS WANED AS THE BULK OF THE CWA IS NOW
DOMINATED BY CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS. LONE CELL WHICH DEVELOPED NEAR
YYZ NOW DROPPING SE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THIS EVENING BETWEEN KIAG AND
KROC...BUT THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY VERY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE ONLY CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT.
AFTER SEVERAL BATCHES OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS SOILS NOW HAVE
SOME MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW 60S OVERNIGHT WITH NO STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL DRYING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH TXOVER PER UPS FOG METHOD AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR BR TO DEVELOP. SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR AND EVEN
LIFR IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY. STILL SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE WILL KEEP
TERMINALS DRY FOR NOW.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VFR PREVAILING ALTHOUGH SOME HAZE MAY LIMIT
VSBYS AT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH INCREASING SPEED
BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR HEADLINES. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD SKIRT THE LOWER LAKES TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...SFM
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SAGE
MARINE...SAGE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
523 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-070930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
523 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-061-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-070930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
523 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

JJP